Conn's, Inc.

OTCPK:CONN.Q 株式レポート

時価総額：US$2.5k

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Conn's 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /06

現在、 Conn'sの成長と収益を予測するのに十分なアナリストの調査がありません。

主要情報

n/a

収益成長率

n/a

EPS成長率

Specialty Retail 収益成長10.1%
収益成長率n/a
将来の株主資本利益率n/a
アナリストカバレッジ

None

最終更新日n/a

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Oct 17

Conn's: Continuation Of Negative Trends In Revenue And Profitability

Summary High macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on revenue growth. Rising costs continue to put pressure on the company's operating margin. The company's effective initiatives to reduce variable costs are offset by an increase in fixed costs (rent, utilities). Introduction Even though Conn's (CONN) stock is seriously down -68% YTD, in my personal opinion, now is not the time to go long. First, amid high macroeconomic uncertainty and declining consumer confidence, the company continues to experience negative revenue trends in 2Q. In addition, although the company manages to maintain the gross margin by working with suppliers and increasing prices, the growth of SGA (% of revenue) costs continues to have a negative impact on operating margin. Survey of Q2 results On August 30, 2022, the company released weak financial and operating results for the 2nd quarter of 2022. The company continues to face pressure on revenue growth and margins. Company's presentations Thus, in Q2 22, revenue decreased by 17.1%, same store sales decreased by 22%. Retail revenue fell 19.4% (more than total sales) due to a strong 22% drop in same store sales. Gross margin declined 48.3% in Q222 to 47.3% in Q2 2022 as the company was able to pass on higher prices to the end consumer, but pressure was put on rising logistics costs (freight, fuel and deleveraging of fixed distribution costs). Operating margin decreased significantly from 13% in Q2 2021 to 2.3% in Q2 2022 due to an increase in SGA expenses (% of revenue) from 33% to 38% and an increase in Provision (benefit) for bad debts c 2.5% to 7.9%. Despite the fact that the company managed to reduce variable costs (advertising, labor costs), this was offset by an increase in fixed costs (rent and utilities). Product mix Company's presentation The company's product mix continues to change. Revenue in the home office category was expectedly down 51% as covid restrictions eased in major markets. Further, we see a serious decrease in revenue in the consumer electronics segment by 34% and in furniture and mattress by 21%. I believe that rising interest rates and monetary tightening will continue to have a negative impact on consumer spending in major categories, as lower real incomes and consumer confidence have a strong impact on consumer discretionary spending. Also, the share of service revenue increased from 6.8% to 7.7%, which supported the gross margin, in accordance with the comments of the company's management. 3Q estimates In line with current macroeconomic trends, I believe rising inflation and declining real incomes will continue to put pressure on revenue growth in the coming quarters. In addition, in my opinion, the company will not be able to significantly reduce costs (% of revenue) due to rising prices for rent and utility bills, and increased competition for labor may also have a negative impact. Thus, I believe operating margins will be under pressure in the coming quarters. Personal calculations Debt Despite the fact that the company continues to reduce the level of debt, the current level of debt remains significant relative to peer companies. Total debt to Equity: 175% Current ratio: 3.48 Debt/Free Cash Flow: 88 SA data Valuation At this point, I would like to focus on the company's earnings by multiples, because valuation using the DCF model is difficult due to the inability to make accurate forecasts of income and loss levels. Based on EV/EBITDA ((FWD)) multiples, the company is valued at a multiple of 17.1, well above the average of 12.9 SA data Drivers Macro: improved macroeconomic conditions, rising real incomes and lower inflation could have a positive impact on consumer spending and the company's top line growth. Margin: effective cost control and the transfer of costs to the end user can support the operating profitability of the business. Risks Macro: macroeconomic conditions continue to have a negative impact on consumer spending, as a result, the company's revenue continues to be under pressure In addition, in my personal opinion, the decline in real incomes will continue to have a negative impact on consumer spending in the discretionary segment.
分析記事 • Sep 21

The Return Trends At Conn's (NASDAQ:CONN) Look Promising

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 30

Conn's Non-GAAP EPS of $0.04 misses by $0.05, revenue of $346.63M misses by $23.6M

Conn's press release (NASDAQ:CONN): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.04 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $346.63M (-17.1% Y/Y) misses by $23.6M. due to a 19.4% decline in total net sales, and a 6.3% reduction in finance charges and other revenues. Same store sales decreased 22.0%. eCommerce sales increased 11.5%. “Challenging macroeconomic conditions continued to pressure consumer spending during our second quarter, which disproportionately affected year-over-year sales to our financial access customer segment and sales of our discretionary product categories. While we entered the second quarter with a cautious outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, the retail environment has continued to deteriorate prompting us to accelerate our efforts to reduce operating costs, and lower capital expenditures as well continue to maintain conservative credit underwriting. In July, we successfully completed our latest ABS transaction and ended the second quarter with over $211.0 million of available liquidity and cash. This provides us with the financial flexibility to support the current needs of our business, while investing in our long-term growth and transformation,” stated Chandra Holt, Conn's (CONN) Chief Executive Officer.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 08

Conn's: Good Initiatives But Difficult Macros

Conn’s stock price has corrected significantly, given the challenging macroeconomic environment. The company is taking initiatives like launching an in-house lease to own platform and experimenting with a store-within-a-store concept. However, I will wait for these initiatives to gain traction before becoming more positive. Investment thesis Conn's (CONN) stock has taken a severe beating, falling ~70% from the 52-week high price of $28. The company is facing significant macroeconomic headwinds. However, it is taking several steps like building an in-house lease-to-own platform and by experimenting with the store-within-a-store concept beginning in Q3 of this year. While these initiatives are interesting and the stock may benefit if they gain traction, I would like to wait for a couple of quarters to see the progress and impact of these initiatives on sales before becoming more positive. For now, I have a neutral rating on the stock given the challenging macroeconomic environment. Macro woes The difficult macro environment is impacting the company's results as Conn's laps difficult comps from the last year-end, and higher year-over-year supply chain costs, including fuel and freight. Management is making adjustments in the business in order to navigate this more difficult operating environment over the near term but their outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year 2023 has now become more cautious. As a result, the company's stock price has seen a sharp correction. On a consolidated basis, the company's total revenue in the first quarter was $339.8 million, which declined 6.6% from the same period last fiscal year, and missed a consensus estimate of $360.78 million. There was a 9.5% decline in the first quarter same-store sales due to the challenging macro environment, the lapping of government stimulus, and continued third-party lease-to-own tightening. In-house lease-to-own platform Conn's Inc. reports its revenue under the two segments: Retail and Finance. The retail portion contributes close to 80% of the total revenue and the rest comes from the Finance charges and other revenue. Conn's Finance business closely complements the retail segment. Conn's provides various facilities of payment to its customers. In addition to payment through cash and credit cards, it also runs two major programs. One is "Conn's HomePlus Financing" and the other is "lease to own programs". Conn's HomePlus Financing is a retail instalment contract or direct loan that allows its customers to borrow a specific amount and pay it back over a designated length of time. The other program, an in-house lease to own platform, is where the management is putting most of the effort. Earlier this year management announced that in order to begin originating leases in-house, it has acquired a technology platform that will enable it to originate and service lease-to-own transactions in-house. In these transactions, the company purchases merchandise and lease back to its customers, charging them rental payments in accordance with the agreement. While the customer takes the merchandise home, it is the company that still owns the merchandise until the customer purchases it from Conn's by exercising one of the two options: 1 the Early Buyout option; or 2 the Early Purchase option. The company has set a target to achieve $2 billion to $2.2 billion in annual revenue and a high single-digit EBIT margin by the fiscal year 2025. Management is counting on this in-house lease program to add meaningful incremental revenue and profit to help the company's 2025 targets. While management hasn't given incremental revenue targets from this program, they expect this in-house lease-to-own offering should add approximately $25 million of incremental annual operating income by fiscal 2025. Looking at the softness in consumer spending due to inflation, I think the in-house lease-to-own program can prove helpful for the company in retaining back those customers who would either prefer to trade down or shift their spending toward more off-price retailers. However, it is too soon to comment on the amount of traction it can gain and I would like to see it for a couple of quarters before becoming more optimistic about its success. Store-within-a-store There is another area of a strategic initiative that the company has recently started working on. It has entered into a partnership with Belk, Inc. to pilot a store-within-a-store concept beginning in Q3 of this year. The company believes that through this partnership, they will be able to offer Belk's customers complementary product categories, in-house repair, and next-day white-glove delivery. For fiscal 2023, the company is planning to open 10 to 14 stand-alone locations and 10-20 store-within-a-store locations, all within existing markets, which will leverage fixed costs. Store-within-a-store will require approximately $100,000 of capital investment plus display inventory. Though management has not provided any numbers on how much revenue they expect to add from this partnership, I believe it can improve the company's return on capital. This program will also help the company leverage its supply chain capabilities. Talking about it on its last earnings call the company's CEO, Chandra R. Holt said: ...so if we take a step back and look at what we're doing with the Belk relationship, one of the things that drew me to Conn's was our best- in-class supply chain for non-conveyable goods. Today, that best-in-class supply chain is mainly serving a narrow -- a pretty narrow market segment of the market. So my ambition is to be able to utilize our supply chain and service capabilities for a much, much broader market. So to do that, we either have the option of changing or bifurcating our own real estate and marketing strategies or we partner with retailers who are already over-indexed in an incremental customer segment, which that's where we see Belk having a customer segment that we don't necessarily serve today".
分析記事 • Jun 24

Estimating The Fair Value Of Conn's, Inc. (NASDAQ:CONN)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Conn's, Inc...
分析記事 • Jun 03

Conn's, Inc. (NASDAQ:CONN) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Conn's, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CONN ), with the analysts making...
分析記事 • May 24

There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Conn's' (NASDAQ:CONN) Returns On Capital

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Firstly, we'll want...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 21

Conn's: Not A Buy Even After Recent Correction

Last month, Conn’s reported disappointing Q4 results with revenues and EPS missing consensus estimates. While the stock has corrected meaningfully since then and valuations are cheap, near-term headwinds remain. Hence, we have a neutral rating on the stock.

このセクションでは通常、投資家が会社の利益創出能力を理解する一助となるよう、プロのアナリストのコンセンサス予想に基づく収益と利益の成長予測を提示する。しかし、Conn's は十分な過去のデータを提供しておらず、アナリストの予測もないため、過去のデータを外挿したり、アナリストの予測を使用しても、その将来の収益を確実に算出することはできません。

シンプリー・ウォール・ストリートがカバーする企業の97%は過去の財務データを持っているため、これはかなり稀な状況です。

業績と収益の成長予測

OTCPK:CONN.Q - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
1/31/20241,238-77-102-51N/A
10/31/20231,206-163-75-12N/A
7/31/20231,248-137-671N/A
4/30/20231,287-101-3139N/A
1/31/20231,343-59-1360N/A
10/31/20221,410-91981N/A
7/31/20221,49434162N/A
4/30/20221,566693893N/A
1/31/20221,590108132176N/A
10/31/20211,555126202244N/A
7/31/20211,484115291333N/A
4/30/20211,43398392440N/A
1/31/20211,386-3406462N/A
10/31/20201,431-23317373N/A
7/31/20201,473-19240296N/A
4/30/20201,507-20122183N/A
1/31/20201,544562380N/A
10/31/20191,56480462N/A
7/31/20191,561843286N/A
4/30/20191,545812666N/A
1/31/20191,55074119152N/A
10/31/20181,53748123151N/A
7/31/20181,5373593116N/A
4/30/20181,519227695N/A
1/31/20181,51663451N/A
10/31/20171,5283N/A104N/A
7/31/20171,532-2N/A164N/A
4/30/20171,564-18N/A187N/A
1/31/20171,597-26N/A205N/A
10/31/20161,621-24N/A74N/A
7/31/20161,639-23N/A-29N/A
4/30/20161,6375N/A-122N/A
1/31/20161,61331N/A-172N/A
10/31/20151,58345N/A-128N/A
7/31/20151,55845N/A-151N/A
4/30/20151,51546N/A-164N/A
1/31/20151,48559N/A-190N/A
10/31/20141,42071N/A-227N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: CONN.Qの予測収益成長が 貯蓄率 ( 2.9% ) を上回っているかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

収益対市場: CONN.Qの収益がUS市場よりも速く成長すると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です

高成長収益: CONN.Qの収益が今後 3 年間で 大幅に 増加すると予想されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

収益対市場: CONN.Qの収益がUS市場よりも速く成長すると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

高い収益成長: CONN.Qの収益が年間20%よりも速く成長すると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: CONN.Qの 自己資本利益率 が 3 年後に高くなると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2025/08/04 08:35
終値2025/07/14 00:00
収益2024/01/31
年間収益2024/01/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Conn's, Inc. 0 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。10

アナリスト機関
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