Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

NYSE:TFPM 株式レポート

時価総額:US$6.4b

Triple Flag Precious Metals 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /16

Triple Flag Precious Metals利益と収益がそれぞれ年間13.2%と9.2%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に14.6% 9.4%なると予測されています。

主要情報

13.2%

収益成長率

9.40%

EPS成長率

Metals and Mining 収益成長13.5%
収益成長率9.2%
将来の株主資本利益率14.58%
アナリストカバレッジ

Low

最終更新日18 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha Mar 13

Triple Flag Precious Metals: Still One Of The Cheapest Streaming Plays In A Gold Supercycle

Summary Triple Flag Precious Metals remains a Buy, trading at a significant discount to peers with a robust growth pipeline and strong cash flow. TFPM reported $312.83 million in free cash flow, maintains a debt-free balance sheet, and continues to invest heavily in value-accretive mineral interests. Despite a projected short-term GEO drop in 2026, TFPM's long-term growth is underpinned by new streaming deals and favorable macro drivers for precious metals. Valuation places TFPM around current levels, reflecting conservative assumptions and substantial upside if gold prices outperform. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Jan 07

Triple Flag Precious Metals: Good Growth Potential At A Very Attractive Share Price

Summary Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) receives a Buy rating due to the well-mitigated risk of a globally diversified precious metals-focused stream and royalty portfolio and rising gold prices. .TFPM's streams and royalties, primarily in gold and silver, benefit from increasing GEO ("Gold Equivalent Ounces") sales and high gold prices, driving profitability. The company is well positioned to generate strong cash flow, and investors can rely on the company's commitment to delivering value to shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Sep 23

Triple Flag: One Of The Best Silver Exposures In The Royalty And Streaming Business

Summary Considering that I view the supply and demand fundamentals of the silver market as highly compelling, I am attracted by Triple Flag's large silver exposure. The stream on 65% of the silver production at Cerro Lindo is the cornerstone asset in Triple Flag's portfolio. Triple Flag is expected to produce between 135,000 and 145,000 GEOs in 2028, which would represent a growth of almost 30% compared to the midpoint of the 2024 production guidance. The company is trading at an enterprise value per GEO of approximately $31,000, which is the equivalent of a 27% and 30% discount compared to Osisko and Franco-Nevada, respectively. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha May 15

Triple Flag Precious Metals: A Golden Start To 2024

Summary We recap Triple Flag Precious Metal's Q1 earnings report. The company has increased gold equivalent sales for eight consecutive years and is guiding for another strong year in 2024. We are bullish on shares that are well-positioned to benefit in the ongoing bull market for gold and silver. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Feb 28

Triple Flag: Too Cheap To Ignore

Summary Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported strong Q4 and FY2023 results, and expects another solid year on deck in 2024. Notably, the company achieved record revenue and operating cash flow despite lapping tough comps from Fosterville, and a weaker finish to the year at Renard. In this update, we'll dig into the Q4 and FY2023 results, recent developments, and why Triple Flag is a must-own name for those looking for silver exposure. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Feb 01

Triple Flag: Another Record Year (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported Q4 and FY2023 results, with sales marginally below guidance but well within the annual guidance range. Notably, Triple Flag also made some small additions to the portfolio on top of closing its MMX deal & is set up for another year of record cash flow in 2024. In this update, we’ll see if this pullback in Triple Flag stock is a buying opportunity and how its valuation stacks up after its sharp correction. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Nov 30

Triple Flag: Strong Uptrend With Bullish Gold Ahead

Summary Retail investors may want to consider buying shares of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. due to its well-positioned business in the gold market. The price of gold is expected to continue rising, reaching new highs in the coming months and years. Triple Flag's profitability and production of gold equivalent ounces are expected to increase, driving its share price higher. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Aug 30

Triple Flag: The Best Mid-Size Royalty Company Reasonably Priced

Summary Triple Flag is a well-diversified royalty and streaming company with a robust balance sheet and great management. The acquisition of Maverix creates one of the best mid-size royalty and streaming companies with 229 assets. I expect the gold price to move significantly north in the next 24 months and reach a range between 2,200 and 2,500 $/oz. Triple Flag is an excellent opportunity to bet on that scenario. Using net asset value and value per ounce, TFPM stock is overvalued. I prefer lower prices to buy more shares, but even that price is good for the initial tranche. That's why I give Triple Flag a buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Aug 14

Triple Flag: Another Record Quarter

Summary Triple Flag has reported another record quarter with record revenue and cash flow, as well as a dividend increase to $0.21 per annum. The company's Q2 results were boosted by strong performance from its smaller assets, helping to offset a weaker quarter at Cerro Lindo and Fosterville. Meanwhile, from a development standpoint, we continue to see solid results out of key assets like Hope Bay. In this update, I'll look at whether this sharp correction in Triple Flag has provided enough margin of safety to justify going long the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha May 26

Triple Flag: A Solid Q1 Despite Slow Start From Core-4 Assets

Summary Triple Flag released its Q1 results earlier this month, reporting record revenue, cash flow, and gold-equivalent ounce sales. This record performance was despite a slow start to 2023 from its core four assets, with the acquisition of MMX picking up the slack, plus higher deliveries from ATO. And while 2022 was a slower year due to lower silver prices and lower production at Fosterville, Triple Flag should see meaningful growth in GEO sales in 2023/2024. So, with a diversified portfolio of high-quality royalty/streaming assets, considerable exposure to silver relative to peers, and a team that consistently delivers on promises, I would expect further weakness in TFPM to provide a buying opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Feb 22

Triple Flag Precious Metals reports Q4 earnings; initiates FY23 outlook

Triple Flag Precious Metals press release (NYSE:TFPM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $43.9M (+18.7% Y/Y) in-line. In 2023, we expect attributable royalty income and stream sales to total 100,000 to 115,000 GEOs.
Seeking Alpha Feb 12

Triple Flag: A Strong Finish To The Year

Summary Triple Flag Precious Metals released its Q4 and FY2022 results last month, reporting quarterly sales of ~25,400 gold-equivalent ounces [GEOs] and annual sales of ~84,600 GEOs. This translated to record Q4 metal sales and record annual revenue of ~$151.9 million, a slight increase vs. the year-ago period despite weaker metals prices. Looking ahead to its 2023 results, TFPM will see another record year following its Maverix acquisition, and the company has moved into the #4 slot for size among royalty/streamers. Given that TFPM is a much stronger company today than it was last year with greater diversification and a robust pipeline, I would view any pullbacks below US$11.80 as buying opportunities. While it was a solid year for precious metals royalty/streaming names, given that they managed to side-step the margin erosion of their producer peers, it was also a hectic year with significant consolidation. This included the acquisitions of Great Bear Royalties and Nomad, the failed takeover bid for Elemental Altus Royalties (ELEMF), and then the amalgamation of Elemental Royalties and Altus shortly after. However, perhaps the most transformational deal was Triple Flag's (TFPM) offer to acquire budding royalty/streamer Maverix, one of the larger junior royalty companies with an exceptional development pipeline. As discussed in a recent update, this deal was a smart move by Triple Flag, helping to improve its trading liquidity, leading to greater diversification (29 producing assets, 229 total assets), and adding key development projects to Triple Flag's pipeline. Notably, it also adds some nice organic growth at key assets like Karora's (KRRGF) Beta Hunt Mine, where the company is doubling mine production (second decline). Given this upgrade to the portfolio that has made TFPM more attractive from an investment standpoint, I would view any pullbacks below US$11.80 as buying opportunities. Beta Hunt Coarse Gold (Karora Presentation) All figures are in United States Dollars unless otherwise noted. Q4 & FY2022 Results Triple Flag Precious Metals released its Q4 and FY2022 results last month, reporting quarterly sales of ~25,400 gold-equivalent ounces [GEOs] and annual sales of ~84,600 GEOs. This represented a record for the company, with the Q4 performance helped by a strong finish to the year from Fosterville (higher grades), operated by the #3 gold producer globally, Agnico Eagle (AEM). Unfortunately, annual gold-equivalent ounce [GEO] sales came in shy of estimates of 90,000 to 95,000 GEOs. This was impacted by operational delays such as rail/shipping delays at Northparkes due to severe weather in NSW and increased time for quotation period settlements at Cerro Lindo concentrates. Triple Flag - Quarterly GEO Production (Company Filings, Author's Chart) Although the guidance miss was a minor disappointment, this had little to do with the health of its partners' operations. Triple Flag is positioned to blow past these estimates in 2023 after upgrading its portfolio following the Maverix acquisition. In fact, FY2023 attributable production should come in above 125,000 GEOs, translating to ~46% growth year-over-year and a significant increase in cash flow generation. Combined with available liquidity of ~$600 million, this sharp increase in cash flow will place Triple Flag in the enviable position of being able to transact on large deals like the majors without having to dilute shareholders such as what we've seen from juniors like Metalla (MTA) and Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) when they occasionally punch above their weight to do small to mid-sized deals. Triple Flag - Quarterly Revenue (Company Filings, Author's Chart) Finally, looking at revenue, Triple Flag reported quarterly revenue of $43.9 million in Q4 2022, a nearly 20% increase vs. the year-ago period ($37.0 million). This was related to increased sales volumes at ATO, and its Other category, offset by a lower average realized gold price and lower sales from a couple of its larger assets. On a full-year basis, Triple Flag reported a 1% increase in revenue ($151.9 million vs. $150.4 million) despite the weaker metals prices but is on track to enjoy 50% plus revenue growth in FY2023 based on estimated revenue of $230+ million. Let's take a look at recent developments: Recent Portfolio Additions Regarding recent portfolio additions, Triple Flag completed two new deals just before year-end, acquiring a gross revenue return [GRR] and a gold and silver stream on the Prieska copper-zinc mine with Orion Minerals in South Africa. The stream provides Triple Flag with 84% of payable gold and 84% of payable silver until 94,300 ounces of gold and ~5.71 million ounces of silver are delivered (stream drops to 50% thereafter). Orion Minerals' Prieska copper-zinc nine is a high-grade past-producing asset with a mineral reserve grade of 1.1% copper and 3.2% zinc, with a planned 11-year mine life producing ~220,000 tonnes of copper and ~680,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate, respectively. In addition to the Prieska deal, Triple Flag announced that it would acquire up to 2.5% NSR royalty on the Thunder Bay Project held by Clean Air Metals (CLRMF). This is a platinum, palladium, copper, and nickel project near Thunder Bay in Ontario, Canada, where a Feasibility Study is planned for this year. The recent PEA on the project highlighted the potential for a 10-year mine life with an underground mining rate of ~4,400 tonnes per day, a processing rate of ~3,600 tonnes per day, and a floatation circuit to produce copper-PGE concentrate and bulk concentrate. Total revenue over the mine life is estimated at ~$1.7 billion, and capex is modest at ~$275 million, though with inflationary pressures, this figure could be closer to $320 million. Overall, I see these two deals as solid, with a stream and GRR added on an impressive asset (albeit in a less favorable jurisdiction) with Prieska and a decent-sized royalty on a PGE asset in a Tier-1 jurisdiction with the Thunder Bay Project. Considering the total combined consideration of less than $100 million, these look like nice additions to the portfolio at relatively low risk. Exploration Success Across The Royalty Portfolio Moving over to recent developments on Triple Flag's producing and development-stage royalties, two key assets worth that continue to see considerable attention are Hope Bay (1.0% NSR royalty) and Fosterville (2.0% NSR royalty). For those unfamiliar, Agnico Eagle (AEM) post-Kirkland Lake merger took the throne for the most aggressive driller (based on non-ferrous mineral exploration budget ranks) from Rio Tinto (RIO) when it came to its 2022 exploration budget. This was evidenced by an exploration budget of ~$324 million, subsequently increasing to ~$354 million, with 80% of that incremental budget directed to Hope Bay. Hope Bay Project (Agnico Eagle Presentation) These two assets benefit from a significant portion of this budget, with ~$110 million combined (Hope Bay + Fosterville) of Agnico's total budget being allocated to these two assets, consisting of drilling & developing new exploration drifts. Previously, I was lukewarm on Triple Flag because it's clear that Fosterville has seen its best days behind it with declining bonanza-grade reserves (18+ grams per tonne gold) after three years of 500,000+ ounce per annum production levels (2019, 2020, 2021). Given that this was a top-3 royalty asset for Triple Flag, it would be a major drag on operations after consistently delivering 10,000+ GEOs per annum on an attributable basis. Fosterville Mine - Quarterly Gold Production (Company Filings, Author's Chart) As shown in the below table, Fosterville reserves had shrunk to ~5.6 million tonnes at 10.33 grams per tonne of gold (plus ~1.05 million tonnes at 4.67 grams per tonne of gold), translating to just ~2.02 million ounces as of year-end 2021. Given that 2022 production was forecasted at ~770,000 tonnes at 16.6 grams per tonne of gold, high-grade reserves are set to decline even further, and I would expect only moderate reserve replacement this year and at lower grades. This isn't a huge deal for the asset and isn't a knock against its operators; it's simply not easy to consistently delineate 2/3 ounce per tonne material, even if you are poking holes into a world-class asset. Although Fosterville is backed up by measured & indicated resources of ~9.0 million tonnes at ~7.0 grams per tonne of gold and ~9.0 million tonnes of inferred resources at ~5.70 grams per tonne of gold, these grades are well below reserves grades. The result is that Agnico Eagle expects FY2022 production to come in near 400,000 ounces but slide to 375,000 ounces this year and just 248,000 ounces in FY2024. In Triple Flag's case, this would result in attributable production from Fosterville plunging from ~12,300 ounces in 2020 to just ~5,000 ounces in FY2024, and no indication yet that 2025 will be any better as the team continues to chew through the remaining 1/2 ounce per tonne material. Fosterville Reserves (Year-End 2021) (Kirkland Lake Gold Filings) However, after 18 months of aggressive drilling by Kirkland Lake Gold/Agnico, we're finally starting to see some solid intercepts. Meanwhile, following the Maverix merger, we've seen a significant increase in diversification for Triple Flag, with Beta Hunt helping to replace some of the lower production from Fosterville and multiple other assets in the wings to help boost production (Northparkes E22, South Railroad, Eskay Creek, Kone, McCoy Cove, North Bullfrog). Finally, with Fosterville now in the hands of the most aggressive drill sector-wide, I am cautiously optimistic this team can replace reserves at 10.0+ grams per tonne and potentially make a new discovery. Fosterville Mine - Drill Results & Development (Agnico Presentation) Looking at recent drilling above, Agnico noted that its decline into the Robbins Hill orebody (separate from the high-grade reserve base at Lower Phoenix/Harrier) and infill/extensional drilling is now underway. The company noted that it hit a new mineralized structure named the Hoffman Fault in the hangingwall of the Curie Fault, with an exceptional intercept of 1.8 meters at 58.0 grams per tonne of gold. As Kirkland Lake Gold's Senior VP of Exploration Eric Kallio stated in his final Conference Call at Kirkland Lake before the merger, grades were improving at depth at Robbins Hill (similar to what occurred at the Swan Zone), and this appears to be the case under Agnico as well with more solid intercepts near the 1,000-meter level (4.9 meters at 68.0 grams per tonne gold). One encouraging nugget stated by Agnico Eagle in its Q3 Exploration Update was as follows: "The very high gold grades intersected in hole UDR015 down-plunge of the Robbins Hill mineral resources are due to the presence of visible gold in quartz vein mineralization — a style of mineralization similar to what is seen in the Swan Zone." Moving over to current mining areas, Agnico Eagle released multiple high-grade intersections in its Q3 2022 results, hitting 1.4 meters at 226 grams per tonne of gold south of existing resource blocks in an 80-meter step-out hole and 1.1 meters at 365.5 grams per tonne of gold. These drill highlights are a stone's throw from current resources and reserves. They are now attributed to the Cardinal Fault, a hanging wall splay of Lower Phoenix mineralization (70 to 130 meters laterally south from reserves). Other encouraging intercepts that weren't quite as high-grade included 10.6 meters at 14.6 grams per tonne of gold and 8.0 meters at 31.5 grams per tonne of gold, which are still well above current reserve grades. Fosterville Mine Exploration Drilling (Agnico Eagle Presentation) Obviously, these are not the blockbuster results that Kirkland Lake Gold was busy reporting in 2017/2018 that helped to significantly increase high-grade reserves, such as 7.45 meters at 289 grams per tonne of gold, 6.4 meters at 598 grams per tonne of gold, and 8.2 meters at 991 grams per tonne of gold. Still, the goal here for Agnico appears to be to build on reserves and allow Fosterville to be a consistent 250,000 to 300,000-ounce producer from 2026 forward at industry-leading costs. So, while I do expect 2024 and 2025 production to drop off materially and average less than 260,000 ounces per annum (which will impact Triple Flag's cash flow), the recent exploration success is encouraging and suggests this mine likely has at least another decade ahead of it at a more modest production profile. Of course, the wild card is a major discovery by Agnico Eagle, which I wouldn't rule out, and that could easily push production back to ~400,000 ounces per annum if the company were able to spike grades with some 20+ gram per tonne material on top of what looks to be a new range of 8-11 grams per tonne head grades post-2024. Moving over to Agnico's Hope Bay Project in Nunavut, the company was so pleased with its exploration success that it increased its 2022 exploration budget from ~$32 million to $50+ million mid-way through the year. As of Q3 2022, the company continues to focus on testing extensions to mineralization both along strike and at depth below the dike, aiming to expand the BTD Extension, BTD Connector, and BTD Central zones. For those unfamiliar with Hope Bay, Agnico Eagle halted production in Q1 2022 at the asset to focus on exploration and better understand the opportunity here, with a goal of restarting operations from a stronger base. The primary goal is a ~4,000 tonne per day operation producing 250,000 to 300,000 ounces per annum, pushing Agnico's Nunavut production to 1.0+ million ounces per annum (Meadowbank, Meliadine, and Hope Bay). Hope Bay Project (Agnico Eagle Presentation) Looking at the above image of the primary deposit (Doris), recent drilling suggests the potential to increase Doris resources/reserves at depth both in the BTD Extension/Connector zones and in the West Valley Zone. Highlight intercepts include 2.3 meters at 20.9 grams per tonne of gold just north of existing reserve blocks (drill hole HBDBE-22-50888) and 3.5 meters at 20.9 meters along the limit of existing reserves (drill hole HBDBE-22-50886). Additionally, Agnico Eagle intersected 7.7 meters at 3.1 grams per tonne of gold and 2.4 meters at 10.4 grams per tonne of gold in drill hole HBD-22-027, which is one of the deepest intercepts drilled to date, well below resource blocks in the BTD Connector Zone. Moving north of HBD-22-027 in the BTD Connector Zone, Agnico Eagle hit a thick intercept of 32.2 meters at 6.9 grams per tonne of gold, and separate holes intersected 15.3 meters at 9.4 grams per tonne of gold and 4.8 meters at 23.0 grams per tonne of gold. These intercepts are well outside current resource blocks, suggesting incremental resource/reserve upside at depth below the East Limb and on strike from the West Limb. Finally, Agnico extended the West Valley Zone 77 meters south with a solid intercept of 2.6 meters at 14.4 grams per tonne of gold and intersected 3.0 meters at 25.4 grams per tonne of gold, well above existing reserve grades. Hope Bay vs. Meliadine Scale (Company Presentation) From a bigger-picture standpoint, Agnico has spent limited capital at the nearby Madrid deposit, and Boston(opposite end of the gold belt) has still seen limited drilling, with these being two other high-grade ore bodies where Triple Flag benefits from royalty coverage. Agnico noted that Boston will receive some attention in 2023 "while larger production scenarios are being evaluated." Given that this is a massive 80-kilometer-long greenstone belt with three high-grade ore bodies identified to date, I would not rule out the potential for a mining 'complex' on Hope Bay ground capable of producing 400,000+ ounces per annum.

業績と収益の成長予測

NYSE:TFPM - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/20285634094304433
12/31/20276324574135135
12/31/20265514052814525
3/31/2026453311175360N/A
12/31/202538924094313N/A
9/30/202534420468287N/A
6/30/2025324172146267N/A
3/31/20252945121240N/A
12/31/2024269-23156214N/A
9/30/2024247-55123188N/A
6/30/2024222-90132163N/A
3/31/202421137108154N/A
12/31/202320436-37154N/A
9/30/202319642-68153N/A
6/30/202318161-59142N/A
3/31/202316456-58131N/A
12/31/20221525566118N/A
9/30/20221455391111N/A
6/30/20221484595115N/A
3/31/20221535392118N/A
12/31/20211504669120N/A
9/30/20211558675122N/A
6/30/202114390-489112N/A
3/31/202112981-498101N/A
12/31/202011356-64584N/A
9/30/2020883-67363N/A
12/31/201959-41N/A40N/A
9/30/201957-54N/A37N/A
12/31/201843-1N/A28N/A
12/31/201741-29N/A27N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: TFPMの予測収益成長率 (年間13.2% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: TFPMの収益 ( 13.2% ) US市場 ( 16.8% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高成長収益: TFPMの収益は増加すると予測されていますが、大幅には増加しません。

収益対市場: TFPMの収益 ( 9.2% ) US市場 ( 11.6% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高い収益成長: TFPMの収益 ( 9.2% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。


一株当たり利益成長率予想


将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: TFPMの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 14.6 %)。


成長企業の発掘

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日(UTC時間)
企業分析2026/05/20 20:10
終値2026/05/20 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM(Trailing Twelve Month)またはLTM(Last Twelve Month)データとして知られています。詳細はこちら

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. 5 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。15

アナリスト機関
Rene CartierBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Lawson WinderBofA Global Research