New Risk • Jul 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 15
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.05 per share at 3.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 February 2024. Payment date: 08 April 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and the cash payout ratio is 87%. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (6.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.6%). Declared Dividend • Feb 09
First half dividend of UK£0.05 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of UK£0.05. Ex-date: 22nd February 2024 Payment date: 8th April 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but not adequately covered by cash flows (92% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 41% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 4.1% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 08
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.19 (vs UK£0.46 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: UK£0.19 (down from UK£0.46 in 1H 2023). Revenue: UK£756.0m (down 27% from 1H 2023). Net income: UK£60.0m (down 60% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 7.9% (down from 14% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 08
Now 33% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 32% to UK£6.89. The fair value is estimated to be UK£5.19, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 2.5% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 13% per annum over the same time period. お知らせ • Dec 19
Redrow plc Appoints Beth Ford as Company Secretary Redrow plc announced that Beth Ford will be appointed as the Group Company Secretary with effect from the 31 December 2023 following the retirement of Graham Cope. Beth is a Chartered Company Secretary and Chartered Governance Professional and is a Fellow of The Chartered Governance Institute. She has over 10 years corporate governance and listed company experience.Beth has been involved in significant corporate transactions during her career and has held a variety of roles of increasing responsibility within the company secretarial and governance field. Beth is currently the Group's Deputy Company Secretary and joined Redrow in 2017 from Amec Foster Wheeler plc. Prior to this, she worked at Eversheds Sutherland LLP where she provided company secretarial and governance services to a wide range of clients. お知らせ • Nov 18
Redrow plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Sep 11, 2024 Redrow plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Sep 11, 2024 お知らせ • Nov 11
Redrow plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the year 2024 Redrow plc announced that the company continue to expect results to be in the guidance range they gave in September 2023 of revenue between £1.65 billion and £1.7 billion and profit before tax of between £180 million and £200 million. However, with the lower than anticipated sales rate due to the more subdued Autumn housing market they are more likely to be towards the lower end of the range. Due to improved timing of affordable legal completions, the company now expect the revenue profile for the current financial year to be more evenly split than originally anticipated, with 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half. お知らせ • Sep 14
Redrow plc Re-Introduces Earnings Guidance for 2024 Redrow plc is re-introduced earnings guidance for the year 2024. For the year 2024, guidance based on a sales rate in line with Fiscal Year 2023 of 0.46 per outlet per week: Revenue to be £1.65 billion to £1.7 billion. EPS to be c41 pence. Reported Earnings • Sep 14
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.91 (vs UK£0.58 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.91 (up from UK£0.58 in FY 2022). Revenue: UK£2.13b (flat on FY 2022). Net income: UK£298.0m (up 51% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 14% (up from 9.2% in FY 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Consumer Durables industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 1.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 24
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to UK£5.22, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Consumer Durables industry in the United Kingdom. Total returns to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£5.65 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 16
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.10 per share at 6.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 23 February 2023. Payment date: 06 April 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 59% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 6.2%. Within top quartile of British dividend payers (5.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (7.3%). Reported Earnings • Feb 10
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.46 (vs UK£0.48 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.46 (down from UK£0.48 in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£1.03b (down 2.0% from 1H 2022). Net income: UK£150.0m (down 8.5% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 14% (down from 16% in 1H 2022). Revenue is expected to fall by 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.2% decline forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. お知らせ • Feb 10
Redrow plc to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Sep 13, 2023 Redrow plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Sep 13, 2023 Price Target Changed • Nov 25
Price target decreased to UK£5.46 Down from UK£5.87, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 18% above last closing price of UK£4.63. Stock is down 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.86 for next year compared to UK£0.58 last year. お知らせ • Nov 19
Redrow plc to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Feb 09, 2023 Redrow plc announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Feb 09, 2023 Price Target Changed • Nov 01
Price target decreased to UK£6.10 Down from UK£6.57, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 46% above last closing price of UK£4.19. Stock is down 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.87 for next year compared to UK£0.58 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 26
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to UK£4.30, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Consumer Durables industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£7.38 per share. Price Target Changed • Sep 21
Price target decreased to UK£7.07 Down from UK£7.67, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is 42% above last closing price of UK£4.99. Stock is down 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.92 for next year compared to UK£0.58 last year. Reported Earnings • Sep 15
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: EPS: UK£0.58 (down from UK£0.74 in FY 2021). Revenue: UK£2.14b (up 10% from FY 2021). Net income: UK£197.0m (down 22% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 9.2% (down from 13% in FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Durables industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 6% per year. Price Target Changed • Sep 12
Price target decreased to UK£7.29 Down from UK£8.08, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is 48% above last closing price of UK£4.93. Stock is down 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.78 for next year compared to UK£0.74 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 17
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 February 2022. Payment date: 08 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (4.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.2%). Reported Earnings • Feb 12
First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2022 results: EPS: UK£0.48 (up from UK£0.41 in 1H 2021). Revenue: UK£1.05b (up 1.1% from 1H 2021). Net income: UK£164.0m (up 16% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 14% in 1H 2021). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 6.4%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new directors Independent Non-Executive Chairman Richard Akers was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. Price Target Changed • Sep 20
Price target increased to UK£8.63 Up from UK£8.06, the current price target is an average from 16 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of UK£7.08. Stock is up 91% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Sep 17
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS UK£0.74 (vs UK£0.33 in FY 2020) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: UK£1.94b (up 45% from FY 2020). Net income: UK£254.0m (up 125% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 8.4% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Executive Departure • Sep 17
Non-Executive Chairman John Tutte has left the company On the 15th of September, John Tutte's tenure as Non-Executive Chairman ended after 19.2 years in the role. As of June 2021, John still personally held 417.60k shares (UK£2.6m worth at the time). A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 9.67 years. Board Change • Aug 01
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Non-Executive Director Richard Akers was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 03
New 90-day high: UK£5.88 The company is up 4.0% from its price of UK£5.63 on 03 December 2020. The British market is also up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it outperformed the Consumer Durables industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£6.93 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 25
Non-Executive Chairman recently sold UK£2.2m worth of stock On the 23rd of February, John Tutte sold around 391k shares on-market at roughly UK£5.54 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. John has been a seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£2.1m.