View ValuationSwatch Group 将来の成長Future 基準チェック /36Swatch Group利益と収益がそれぞれ年間35.3%と3.7%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に3.2% 34.4%なると予測されています。主要情報35.3%収益成長率34.36%EPS成長率Luxury 収益成長13.2%収益成長率3.7%将来の株主資本利益率3.18%アナリストカバレッジGood最終更新日15 May 2026今後の成長に関する最新情報Price Target Changed • Feb 18Price target increased by 7.2% to CHF152Up from CHF142, the current price target is an average from 20 analysts. New target price is 24% below last closing price of CHF199. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF4.77 for next year compared to CHF0.058 last year.Major Estimate Revision • Oct 07Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from CHF1.76 to CHF1.99. Revenue forecast unchanged at CHF6.21b. Net income forecast to grow 197% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF135. Share price rose 3.6% to CHF155 over the past week.Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from CHF2.07 to CHF1.75 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CHF6.20b. Net income forecast to grow 175% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF133. Share price fell 4.2% to CHF144 over the past week.Major Estimate Revision • Jul 18Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.54b to CHF6.40b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF5.10 per share to CHF4.39 per share. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF148 to CHF143. Share price rose 2.9% to CHF140 over the past week.Major Estimate Revision • Jun 29Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.77b to CHF6.63b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF6.53 per share to CHF5.46 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF151. Share price was steady at CHF131 over the past week.Major Estimate Revision • Apr 15Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.97b to CHF6.82b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF7.51 per share to CHF6.61 per share. Net income forecast to grow 67% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF157. Share price rose 2.6% to CHF134 over the past week.すべての更新を表示Recent updatesUpcoming Dividend • May 08Upcoming dividend of CHF4.50 per shareEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 May 2026. Payment date: 19 May 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (3.6%). In line with average of industry peers (2.2%).お知らせ • Apr 09The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 12, 2026The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 12, 2026, at 10:00 W. Europe Standard Time.Reported Earnings • Mar 19Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behindFull year 2025 results: EPS: CHF0.058 (down from CHF3.73 in FY 2024). Revenue: CHF6.28b (down 6.8% from FY 2024). Net income: CHF3.00m (down 98% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0% (down from 2.9% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 98%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 57 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance.Price Target Changed • Feb 18Price target increased by 7.2% to CHF152Up from CHF142, the current price target is an average from 20 analysts. New target price is 24% below last closing price of CHF199. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF4.77 for next year compared to CHF0.058 last year.Declared Dividend • Feb 02Dividend of CHF4.50 announcedDividend of CHF4.50 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 15th May 2026 Payment date: 19th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (dividend approximately 77x earnings) nor is it covered by cash flows (402% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 8,551% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 262% over the next 2 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio.Reported Earnings • Feb 01Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behindFull year 2025 results: EPS: CHF0.058 (down from CHF3.73 in FY 2024). Revenue: CHF6.28b (down 6.8% from FY 2024). Net income: CHF3.00m (down 98% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0% (down from 2.9% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 98%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 47 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance.お知らせ • Jan 31The Swatch Group AG announces Annual dividend, payable on May 19, 2026The Swatch Group AG announced Annual dividend of CHF 4.5000 per share payable on May 19, 2026, ex-date on May 15, 2026 and record date on May 18, 2026.New Risk • Jan 30New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 5.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 121% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin).分析記事 • Oct 28What The Swatch Group AG's (VTX:UHR) P/S Is Not Telling YouWhen close to half the companies in the Luxury industry in Switzerland have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below...New Risk • Oct 15New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 5.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 121% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.2% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin).Major Estimate Revision • Oct 07Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from CHF1.76 to CHF1.99. Revenue forecast unchanged at CHF6.21b. Net income forecast to grow 197% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF135. Share price rose 3.6% to CHF155 over the past week.分析記事 • Sep 10Swatch Group (VTX:UHR) Has More To Do To Multiply In Value Going ForwardFinding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from CHF2.07 to CHF1.75 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CHF6.20b. Net income forecast to grow 175% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF133. Share price fell 4.2% to CHF144 over the past week.分析記事 • Aug 12Is Swatch Group (VTX:UHR) A Risky Investment?SWX:UHR 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Swatch Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours David...Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 28Now 23% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.7% to CHF150. The fair value is estimated to be CHF195, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 41% per annum over the same time period.分析記事 • Jul 25Why Swatch Group's (VTX:UHR) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its ProblemsThe subdued market reaction suggests that The Swatch Group AG's ( VTX:UHR ) recent earnings didn't contain any...Reported Earnings • Jul 20First half 2025 earnings releasedFirst half 2025 results: Revenue: CHF3.06b (down 11% from 1H 2024). Net income: CHF3.00m (down 98% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 0.1% (down from 3.9% in 1H 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.Major Estimate Revision • Jul 18Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.54b to CHF6.40b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF5.10 per share to CHF4.39 per share. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF148 to CHF143. Share price rose 2.9% to CHF140 over the past week.分析記事 • Jul 09Some Confidence Is Lacking In The Swatch Group AG's (VTX:UHR) P/SIt's not a stretch to say that The Swatch Group AG's ( VTX:UHR ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x right now seems...Major Estimate Revision • Jun 29Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.77b to CHF6.63b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF6.53 per share to CHF5.46 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF151. Share price was steady at CHF131 over the past week.分析記事 • Jun 20Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of The Swatch Group AG (VTX:UHR)Key Insights The projected fair value for Swatch Group is CHF141 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Upcoming Dividend • May 16Upcoming dividend of CHF4.50 per shareEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 23 May 2025. Payment date: 27 May 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (3.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.9%).お知らせ • Apr 16The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2025The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2025, at 10:00 W. Europe Standard Time.Major Estimate Revision • Apr 15Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.97b to CHF6.82b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF7.51 per share to CHF6.61 per share. Net income forecast to grow 67% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF157. Share price rose 2.6% to CHF134 over the past week.Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%After last week's 16% share price decline to CHF132, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Luxury industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 43% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CHF146 per share.Reported Earnings • Mar 20Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2024 results: EPS: CHF3.73 (down from CHF16.76 in FY 2023). Revenue: CHF6.74b (down 15% from FY 2023). Net income: CHF193.0m (down 78% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 11% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings.Declared Dividend • Feb 03Dividend reduced to CHF4.50Dividend of CHF4.50 is 31% lower than last year. Ex-date: 23rd May 2025 Payment date: 27th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (121% earnings payout ratio) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 34% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 115% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range.Reported Earnings • Feb 01Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2024 results: EPS: CHF3.73 (down from CHF16.76 in FY 2023). Revenue: CHF6.74b (down 15% from FY 2023). Net income: CHF193.0m (down 78% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 11% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings.お知らせ • Feb 01+ 1 more updateThe Swatch Group AG to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Jul 31, 2025The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Jul 31, 2025Major Estimate Revision • Jan 31Consensus EPS estimates fall by 23%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF7.21b to CHF6.96b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF11.18 per share to CHF8.62 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 18% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland . Consensus price target down from CHF169 to CHF165. Share price rose 2.1% to CHF170 over the past week.Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 04Now 20% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.4% to CHF179. The fair value is estimated to be CHF224, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period.Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 01Now 20% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.5% to CHF178. The fair value is estimated to be CHF224, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period.Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%After last week's 15% share price gain to CHF176, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Luxury industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CHF223 per share.New Risk • Sep 27New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 5.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.1% net profit margin).Major Estimate Revision • Jul 22Consensus EPS estimates fall by 35%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CHF7.82b to CHF7.44b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF16.31 per share to CHF10.64 per share. Net income forecast to grow 33% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF223 to CHF199. Share price rose 4.1% to CHF178 over the past week.Reported Earnings • Jul 17First half 2024 earnings releasedFirst half 2024 results: Revenue: CHF3.45b (down 14% from 1H 2023). Net income: CHF136.0m (down 72% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 3.9% (down from 12% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.Price Target Changed • Jul 16Price target decreased by 8.2% to CHF208Down from CHF226, the current price target is an average from 21 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of CHF171. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF12.94 for next year compared to CHF16.76 last year.Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 16Now 23% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to CHF171. The fair value is estimated to be CHF221, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 4.6% per annum over the same time period.Upcoming Dividend • May 06Upcoming dividend of CHF6.50 per shareEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 May 2024. Payment date: 15 May 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.3%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (4.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%).Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 18Now 21% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to CHF207. The fair value is estimated to be CHF260, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum over the same time period.Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 26Now 20% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.8% to CHF209. The fair value is estimated to be CHF261, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.5% per annum over the same time period.Price Target Changed • Feb 02Price target decreased by 7.6% to CHF243Down from CHF263, the current price target is an average from 22 analysts. New target price is 20% above last closing price of CHF202. Stock is down 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF16.79 for next year compared to CHF16.76 last year.Major Estimate Revision • Jan 30Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CHF8.16b to CHF7.98b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF19.12 per share to CHF16.83 per share. Net income forecast to grow 0.9% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF268 to CHF245. Share price was steady at CHF202 over the past week.Price Target Changed • Jan 25Price target decreased by 7.8% to CHF247Down from CHF268, the current price target is an average from 22 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of CHF198. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF16.89 for next year compared to CHF16.76 last year.Declared Dividend • Jan 25Dividend of CHF6.50 announcedShareholders will receive a dividend of CHF6.50. Ex-date: 13th May 2024 Payment date: 15th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 18% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover.Reported Earnings • Jan 24Third quarter 2023 earnings releasedThird quarter 2023 results: Revenue: CHF2.00b (up 3.0% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CHF191.5m (down 23% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 9.6% (down from 13% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 4 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.お知らせ • Jan 24The Swatch Group AG to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Jul 31, 2024The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Jul 31, 2024お知らせ • Jan 23The Swatch Group AG to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 21, 2024The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 21, 2024お知らせ • Oct 24The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2024The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2024.New Risk • Aug 09New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 4.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (275% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.4% average weekly change).Buying Opportunity • Jul 17Now 21% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock is down 5.6%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF348, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 88%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 13% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 14% in the next 2 years.Reported Earnings • Jul 14First half 2023 earnings releasedFirst half 2023 results: Revenue: CHF4.02b (up 11% from 1H 2022). Net income: CHF486.0m (up 56% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 12% (up from 8.6% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 88% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth.Upcoming Dividend • May 05Upcoming dividend of CHF6.00 per share at 2.0% yieldEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 May 2023. Payment date: 16 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and the cash payout ratio is 84%. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (4.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.3%).Buying Opportunity • Apr 03Now 23% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock is up 8.9%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF390, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 46%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period.Reported Earnings • Mar 20Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2022 results: EPS: CHF15.57 (up from CHF14.78 in FY 2021). Revenue: CHF7.50b (up 2.5% from FY 2021). Net income: CHF807.0m (up 5.5% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 11% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth.Buying Opportunity • Mar 15Now 20% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock is up 23%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF395, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period.Buying Opportunity • Feb 10Now 20% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock is up 23%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF396, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.8% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period.Price Target Changed • Jan 25Price target increased by 8.0% to CHF311Up from CHF288, the current price target is an average from 24 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of CHF322. Stock is up 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF18.09 for next year compared to CHF3.11 last year.Reported Earnings • Jan 25Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: CHF3.11 (vs CHF14.78 in FY 2021)Full year 2022 results: EPS: CHF3.11. Revenue: CHF7.74b (up 5.9% from FY 2021). Net income: CHF807.0m (up 5.5% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 10% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.お知らせ • Jan 24+ 1 more updateThe Swatch Group AG to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Mar 16, 2023The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Mar 16, 2023Board Change • Nov 16No independent directorsFollowing the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Chairman of Tissot Board & Member of Executive Group Management Board Francois Thiebaud was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model.Buying Opportunity • Oct 11Now 20% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock is down 6.8%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF273, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 20% in the next 2 years.業績と収益の成長予測SWX:UHR - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )CHF Millions日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数12/31/20286,9773872496601312/31/20276,7233675026751812/31/20266,4122595279711812/31/20256,280358507N/A9/30/20256,31532-9465N/A6/30/20256,34960-76423N/A3/31/20256,542127-145378N/A12/31/20246,735193-214333N/A9/30/20247,025356-236379N/A6/30/20247,314519-259424N/A3/31/20247,601694-214520N/A12/31/20237,888869-169615N/A9/30/20237,897926-28667N/A6/30/20237,906982113718N/A3/31/20237,703895226721N/A12/31/20227,499807339724N/A9/30/20227,516808533895N/A6/30/20227,5338097261,066N/A3/31/20227,4237878651,182N/A12/31/20217,3137651,0041,298N/A9/30/20217,0526421,0581,304N/A6/30/20216,7905191,1111,310N/A3/31/20216,1932348501,065N/A12/31/20205,595-51589819N/A9/30/20205,979-14556848N/A6/30/20206,36223523876N/A3/31/20207,3033776511,050N/A12/31/20198,2437307781,224N/A9/30/20198,265761N/A1,060N/A6/30/20198,287791N/A896N/A3/31/20198,381818N/A920N/A12/31/20188,475845N/A943N/A9/30/20188,506884N/A1,097N/A6/30/20188,536922N/A1,250N/A3/31/20188,263828N/A1,257N/A12/31/20177,989733N/A1,264N/A9/30/20177,773663N/A1,165N/A6/30/20177,556592N/A1,066N/A3/31/20177,555583N/A1,038N/A12/31/20167,553574N/A1,010N/A9/30/20167,764694N/A987N/A6/30/20167,975814N/A964N/A3/31/20168,213952N/A1,184N/A12/31/20158,4511,089N/A1,404N/A9/30/20158,6251,170N/A1,530N/A6/30/20158,7991,251N/A1,656N/Aもっと見るアナリストによる今後の成長予測収入対貯蓄率: UHRの予測収益成長率 (年間35.3% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 0.6% ) を上回っています。収益対市場: UHRの収益 ( 35.3% ) はSwiss市場 ( 10.8% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。高成長収益: UHRの収益は今後 3 年間で 大幅に 増加すると予想されています。収益対市場: UHRの収益 ( 3.7% ) Swiss市場 ( 4.9% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。高い収益成長: UHRの収益 ( 3.7% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。一株当たり利益成長率予想将来の株主資本利益率将来のROE: UHRの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 3.2 %)。成長企業の発掘7D1Y7D1Y7D1YConsumer-durables 業界の高成長企業。View Past Performance企業分析と財務データの現状データ最終更新日（UTC時間）企業分析2026/05/21 21:07終値2026/05/21 00:00収益2025/12/31年間収益2025/12/31データソース企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例会社財務10年損益計算書キャッシュ・フロー計算書貸借対照表SECフォーム10-KSECフォーム10-Qアナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年予想財務アナリストの目標株価アナリストリサーチレポートBlue Matrix市場価格30年株価配当、分割、措置ICEマーケットデータSECフォームS-1所有権10年トップ株主インサイダー取引SECフォーム4SECフォーム13Dマネジメント10年リーダーシップ・チーム取締役会SECフォーム10-KSECフォームDEF 14A主な進展10年会社からのお知らせSECフォーム8-K* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。分析モデルとスノーフレーク本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。業界およびセクターの指標私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。アナリスト筋The Swatch Group AG 18 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。35 アナリスト機関Christian WeizBaader Helvea Equity ResearchMariano SzachtmanBanco SantanderLilian NilssonBarclays32 その他のアナリストを表示
Price Target Changed • Feb 18Price target increased by 7.2% to CHF152Up from CHF142, the current price target is an average from 20 analysts. New target price is 24% below last closing price of CHF199. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF4.77 for next year compared to CHF0.058 last year.
Major Estimate Revision • Oct 07Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from CHF1.76 to CHF1.99. Revenue forecast unchanged at CHF6.21b. Net income forecast to grow 197% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF135. Share price rose 3.6% to CHF155 over the past week.
Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from CHF2.07 to CHF1.75 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CHF6.20b. Net income forecast to grow 175% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF133. Share price fell 4.2% to CHF144 over the past week.
Major Estimate Revision • Jul 18Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.54b to CHF6.40b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF5.10 per share to CHF4.39 per share. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF148 to CHF143. Share price rose 2.9% to CHF140 over the past week.
Major Estimate Revision • Jun 29Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.77b to CHF6.63b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF6.53 per share to CHF5.46 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF151. Share price was steady at CHF131 over the past week.
Major Estimate Revision • Apr 15Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.97b to CHF6.82b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF7.51 per share to CHF6.61 per share. Net income forecast to grow 67% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF157. Share price rose 2.6% to CHF134 over the past week.
Upcoming Dividend • May 08Upcoming dividend of CHF4.50 per shareEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 May 2026. Payment date: 19 May 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (3.6%). In line with average of industry peers (2.2%).
お知らせ • Apr 09The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 12, 2026The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 12, 2026, at 10:00 W. Europe Standard Time.
Reported Earnings • Mar 19Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behindFull year 2025 results: EPS: CHF0.058 (down from CHF3.73 in FY 2024). Revenue: CHF6.28b (down 6.8% from FY 2024). Net income: CHF3.00m (down 98% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0% (down from 2.9% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 98%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 57 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance.
Price Target Changed • Feb 18Price target increased by 7.2% to CHF152Up from CHF142, the current price target is an average from 20 analysts. New target price is 24% below last closing price of CHF199. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF4.77 for next year compared to CHF0.058 last year.
Declared Dividend • Feb 02Dividend of CHF4.50 announcedDividend of CHF4.50 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 15th May 2026 Payment date: 19th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (dividend approximately 77x earnings) nor is it covered by cash flows (402% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 8,551% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 262% over the next 2 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio.
Reported Earnings • Feb 01Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behindFull year 2025 results: EPS: CHF0.058 (down from CHF3.73 in FY 2024). Revenue: CHF6.28b (down 6.8% from FY 2024). Net income: CHF3.00m (down 98% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0% (down from 2.9% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 98%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 47 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance.
お知らせ • Jan 31The Swatch Group AG announces Annual dividend, payable on May 19, 2026The Swatch Group AG announced Annual dividend of CHF 4.5000 per share payable on May 19, 2026, ex-date on May 15, 2026 and record date on May 18, 2026.
New Risk • Jan 30New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 5.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 121% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin).
分析記事 • Oct 28What The Swatch Group AG's (VTX:UHR) P/S Is Not Telling YouWhen close to half the companies in the Luxury industry in Switzerland have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below...
New Risk • Oct 15New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 5.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 121% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.2% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin).
Major Estimate Revision • Oct 07Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from CHF1.76 to CHF1.99. Revenue forecast unchanged at CHF6.21b. Net income forecast to grow 197% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF135. Share price rose 3.6% to CHF155 over the past week.
分析記事 • Sep 10Swatch Group (VTX:UHR) Has More To Do To Multiply In Value Going ForwardFinding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15%The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from CHF2.07 to CHF1.75 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CHF6.20b. Net income forecast to grow 175% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF133. Share price fell 4.2% to CHF144 over the past week.
分析記事 • Aug 12Is Swatch Group (VTX:UHR) A Risky Investment?SWX:UHR 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Swatch Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours David...
Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 28Now 23% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.7% to CHF150. The fair value is estimated to be CHF195, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 41% per annum over the same time period.
分析記事 • Jul 25Why Swatch Group's (VTX:UHR) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its ProblemsThe subdued market reaction suggests that The Swatch Group AG's ( VTX:UHR ) recent earnings didn't contain any...
Reported Earnings • Jul 20First half 2025 earnings releasedFirst half 2025 results: Revenue: CHF3.06b (down 11% from 1H 2024). Net income: CHF3.00m (down 98% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 0.1% (down from 3.9% in 1H 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.
Major Estimate Revision • Jul 18Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.54b to CHF6.40b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF5.10 per share to CHF4.39 per share. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF148 to CHF143. Share price rose 2.9% to CHF140 over the past week.
分析記事 • Jul 09Some Confidence Is Lacking In The Swatch Group AG's (VTX:UHR) P/SIt's not a stretch to say that The Swatch Group AG's ( VTX:UHR ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x right now seems...
Major Estimate Revision • Jun 29Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.77b to CHF6.63b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF6.53 per share to CHF5.46 per share. Net income forecast to grow 45% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF151. Share price was steady at CHF131 over the past week.
分析記事 • Jun 20Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of The Swatch Group AG (VTX:UHR)Key Insights The projected fair value for Swatch Group is CHF141 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...
Upcoming Dividend • May 16Upcoming dividend of CHF4.50 per shareEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 23 May 2025. Payment date: 27 May 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (3.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.9%).
お知らせ • Apr 16The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2025The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2025, at 10:00 W. Europe Standard Time.
Major Estimate Revision • Apr 15Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF6.97b to CHF6.82b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF7.51 per share to CHF6.61 per share. Net income forecast to grow 67% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CHF157. Share price rose 2.6% to CHF134 over the past week.
Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%After last week's 16% share price decline to CHF132, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Luxury industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 43% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CHF146 per share.
Reported Earnings • Mar 20Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2024 results: EPS: CHF3.73 (down from CHF16.76 in FY 2023). Revenue: CHF6.74b (down 15% from FY 2023). Net income: CHF193.0m (down 78% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 11% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings.
Declared Dividend • Feb 03Dividend reduced to CHF4.50Dividend of CHF4.50 is 31% lower than last year. Ex-date: 23rd May 2025 Payment date: 27th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (121% earnings payout ratio) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 34% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 115% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range.
Reported Earnings • Feb 01Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2024 results: EPS: CHF3.73 (down from CHF16.76 in FY 2023). Revenue: CHF6.74b (down 15% from FY 2023). Net income: CHF193.0m (down 78% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 11% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings.
お知らせ • Feb 01+ 1 more updateThe Swatch Group AG to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Jul 31, 2025The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Jul 31, 2025
Major Estimate Revision • Jan 31Consensus EPS estimates fall by 23%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CHF7.21b to CHF6.96b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF11.18 per share to CHF8.62 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 18% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland . Consensus price target down from CHF169 to CHF165. Share price rose 2.1% to CHF170 over the past week.
Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 04Now 20% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.4% to CHF179. The fair value is estimated to be CHF224, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.0% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period.
Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 01Now 20% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.5% to CHF178. The fair value is estimated to be CHF224, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period.
Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%After last week's 15% share price gain to CHF176, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Luxury industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CHF223 per share.
New Risk • Sep 27New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 5.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.1% net profit margin).
Major Estimate Revision • Jul 22Consensus EPS estimates fall by 35%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CHF7.82b to CHF7.44b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF16.31 per share to CHF10.64 per share. Net income forecast to grow 33% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF223 to CHF199. Share price rose 4.1% to CHF178 over the past week.
Reported Earnings • Jul 17First half 2024 earnings releasedFirst half 2024 results: Revenue: CHF3.45b (down 14% from 1H 2023). Net income: CHF136.0m (down 72% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 3.9% (down from 12% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.
Price Target Changed • Jul 16Price target decreased by 8.2% to CHF208Down from CHF226, the current price target is an average from 21 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of CHF171. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF12.94 for next year compared to CHF16.76 last year.
Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 16Now 23% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to CHF171. The fair value is estimated to be CHF221, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 4.6% per annum over the same time period.
Upcoming Dividend • May 06Upcoming dividend of CHF6.50 per shareEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 May 2024. Payment date: 15 May 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.3%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (4.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%).
Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 18Now 21% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to CHF207. The fair value is estimated to be CHF260, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum over the same time period.
Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 26Now 20% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.8% to CHF209. The fair value is estimated to be CHF261, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 5.5% per annum over the same time period.
Price Target Changed • Feb 02Price target decreased by 7.6% to CHF243Down from CHF263, the current price target is an average from 22 analysts. New target price is 20% above last closing price of CHF202. Stock is down 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF16.79 for next year compared to CHF16.76 last year.
Major Estimate Revision • Jan 30Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CHF8.16b to CHF7.98b. EPS estimate also fell from CHF19.12 per share to CHF16.83 per share. Net income forecast to grow 0.9% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Switzerland. Consensus price target down from CHF268 to CHF245. Share price was steady at CHF202 over the past week.
Price Target Changed • Jan 25Price target decreased by 7.8% to CHF247Down from CHF268, the current price target is an average from 22 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of CHF198. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF16.89 for next year compared to CHF16.76 last year.
Declared Dividend • Jan 25Dividend of CHF6.50 announcedShareholders will receive a dividend of CHF6.50. Ex-date: 13th May 2024 Payment date: 15th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 18% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover.
Reported Earnings • Jan 24Third quarter 2023 earnings releasedThird quarter 2023 results: Revenue: CHF2.00b (up 3.0% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CHF191.5m (down 23% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 9.6% (down from 13% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 4 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.
お知らせ • Jan 24The Swatch Group AG to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Jul 31, 2024The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Jul 31, 2024
お知らせ • Jan 23The Swatch Group AG to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 21, 2024The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 21, 2024
お知らせ • Oct 24The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2024The Swatch Group AG, Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2024.
New Risk • Aug 09New minor risk - Share price stabilityThe company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks, typically moving 4.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (275% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.4% average weekly change).
Buying Opportunity • Jul 17Now 21% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock is down 5.6%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF348, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 88%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 13% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 14% in the next 2 years.
Reported Earnings • Jul 14First half 2023 earnings releasedFirst half 2023 results: Revenue: CHF4.02b (up 11% from 1H 2022). Net income: CHF486.0m (up 56% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 12% (up from 8.6% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 88% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth.
Upcoming Dividend • May 05Upcoming dividend of CHF6.00 per share at 2.0% yieldEligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 May 2023. Payment date: 16 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and the cash payout ratio is 84%. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Swiss dividend payers (4.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.3%).
Buying Opportunity • Apr 03Now 23% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock is up 8.9%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF390, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 46%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period.
Reported Earnings • Mar 20Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2022 results: EPS: CHF15.57 (up from CHF14.78 in FY 2021). Revenue: CHF7.50b (up 2.5% from FY 2021). Net income: CHF807.0m (up 5.5% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 11% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth.
Buying Opportunity • Mar 15Now 20% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock is up 23%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF395, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period.
Buying Opportunity • Feb 10Now 20% undervaluedOver the last 90 days, the stock is up 23%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF396, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.8% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period.
Price Target Changed • Jan 25Price target increased by 8.0% to CHF311Up from CHF288, the current price target is an average from 24 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of CHF322. Stock is up 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CHF18.09 for next year compared to CHF3.11 last year.
Reported Earnings • Jan 25Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: CHF3.11 (vs CHF14.78 in FY 2021)Full year 2022 results: EPS: CHF3.11. Revenue: CHF7.74b (up 5.9% from FY 2021). Net income: CHF807.0m (up 5.5% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 10% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Europe.
お知らせ • Jan 24+ 1 more updateThe Swatch Group AG to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Mar 16, 2023The Swatch Group AG announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Mar 16, 2023
Board Change • Nov 16No independent directorsFollowing the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Chairman of Tissot Board & Member of Executive Group Management Board Francois Thiebaud was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model.
Buying Opportunity • Oct 11Now 20% undervalued after recent price dropOver the last 90 days, the stock is down 6.8%. The fair value is estimated to be CHF273, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 20% in the next 2 years.