New Risk • May 06
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€5.7m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€5.7m free cash flow). Negative equity (-€8.0m). Revenue is less than US$1m (€339k revenue, or US$365k). Market cap is less than US$10m (€1.43m market cap, or US$1.54m). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€500k net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (7.5% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Feb 26
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Revenue is less than US$1m (€447k revenue, or US$484k). Market cap is less than US$10m (€1.41m market cap, or US$1.52m). Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€14m). Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€595k net loss in 2 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.5% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (4.2% increase in shares outstanding). Price Target Changed • Dec 18
Price target increased by 227% to €52.65 Up from €16.13, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 2,671% above last closing price of €1.90. Stock is down 74% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €8.53 next year compared to a net loss per share of €14.78 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 14
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €900.0k to €800.0k. Forecast losses increased from -€7.35 to -€8.53 per share. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target up from €15.12 to €15.80. Share price fell 22% to €2.00 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 13
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from €900.0k to €800.0k. EPS estimate unchanged from -€8.60 per share at last update. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €16.15. Share price fell 5.7% to €2.48 over the past week. Annuncio • Oct 12
New Day Diagnostics, LLC acquired Substantially all of Assets of Epigenomics AG for $9.8 million. New Day Diagnostics, LLC entered into an asset purchase agreement to acquire Substantially all of Assets of Epigenomics AG for $9.8 million on July 24, 2023. Under the terms of consideration, As consideration for the sale, Epigenomics AG will receive a purchase price of up to USD 12.05 million, which can be broken down as follows: Cash payments of USD 1.8 million: USD 0.5 million on the closing date, USD 1.0 million on December 1, 2023 and USD 0.3 million on June 30, 2024. Further cash payments of up to USD 8.0 million contingent on the achievement of certain milestones related to Epi proColon and foremost Epi proColon “Next-Gen”. An interest in the acquirer of 3.0%, valued at least at USD 2.25 million. In addition, the Company will receive royalty or earn-out payments, in the form of royalties linked to the commercialization of the “Next-Gen”-Test. These payments extend probably until October 2043, the year in which patent protection for the product is expected to expire. Under the terms of the agreement, New Day Diagnostics would acquire substantially all of Epigenomics AG’s assets and intellectual property along with all patents as well as the entire biobank, and thus all of its assets within the meaning of Section 179a of the German Stock Corporation Act (AktG), to the acquirer. The acquisition would expand New Day Diagnostics' portfolio in the cancer diagnostics space and include proprietary biomarker technology for the detection of methylated DNA in various cancer indications, including Epi proColon, a screening tool for the non-invasive detection of colorectal cancer. The agreement is subject to certain closing conditions, including the approval at the Company’s Extraordinary General Meeting. The sale of the assets to New Day Diagnostics is expected to enable the commercialization of Epi proColon “Next-Gen” and secure future cash flows for Epigenomics AG. As of September 14, 2023, Extraordinary General Meeting of Epigenomics approved the transaction. The closing of the agreement remains subject to customary closing conditions, and both parties are diligently working towards its completion.
TCB Capital Advisors, an affiliate of Weild & Co., acted as the exclusive financial advisor to New Day Diagnostics on this transaction, and Brock Shipe Klenk PLC, Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP, and Merchant & Gould acted as New Day Diagnostics' legal advisors.
New Day Diagnostics, LLC completed the acquisition of Substantially all of Assets of Epigenomics AG on October 10, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 17
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 139% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €380.0k to €900.0k. Forecast losses expected to reduce from -€1.63 to -€1.47 per share. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 4.3% next year. Consensus price target down from €6.00 to €3.23. Share price fell 7.1% to €0.65 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: €0.62 loss per share (vs €0.32 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: €0.62 loss per share (further deteriorated from €0.32 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: €70.0k (down 44% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: €2.63m (loss widened 102% from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 76% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Germany. Buying Opportunity • Aug 02
Now 30% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 6.9%. The fair value is estimated to be €1.00, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 25% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 75%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 25% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 106% in the next 2 years. Annuncio • Jul 26
New Day Diagnostics, LLC entered into an asset purchase agreement to acquire Substantially all of Assets of Epigenomics AG. New Day Diagnostics, LLC entered into an asset purchase agreement to acquire Substantially all of Assets of Epigenomics AG on July 24, 2023. Under the terms of the agreement, New Day Diagnostics would acquire substantially all of Epigenomics AG’s assets and intellectual property. The acquisition would expand New Day Diagnostics' portfolio in the cancer diagnostics space and include proprietary biomarker technology for the detection of methylated DNA in various cancer indications, including Epi proColon, a screening tool for the non-invasive detection of colorectal cancer.TCB Capital Advisors, an affiliate of Weild & Co., acted as the exclusive financial advisor to New Day Diagnostics on this transaction, and Brock Shipe Klenk PLC, Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP, and Merchant & Gould acted as New Day Diagnostics' legal advisors. Buying Opportunity • Jul 06
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 7.9%. The fair value is estimated to be €0.99, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 25% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 75%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 25% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 106% in the next 2 years. Annuncio • Jun 13
Epigenomics Shares Surge on Talks to Sell Nearly All Assets for $11.5m Epigenomics AG (XTRA:ECX1) shares more than doubled in value on June 12, 2023 after it said it is holding talks with an unidentified U.S. company to sell nearly all of its assets for around $11.5 million. The German medical diagnostic company said the potential deal, which is unbinding and therefore could still fail, relates to the patents and other rights of its blood tests to screen for colon cancer and all blood samples owned by Epigenomics. Current negotiations place the deal closing in December, Epigenomics said. The unidentified acquirer would also have to pay royalties and other costs associated with the potential commercialization of a diagnostic test in development. Price Target Changed • Jun 02
Price target increased by 9.1% to €6.00 Up from €5.50, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 900% above last closing price of €0.60. Stock is down 69% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.63 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.96 last year. Reported Earnings • Jun 01
First quarter 2023 earnings released: €1.31 loss per share (vs €0.67 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: €1.31 loss per share (further deteriorated from €0.67 loss in 1Q 2022). Net loss: €5.59m (loss widened 110% from 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 77% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Germany. Annuncio • May 20
Epigenomics AG Announces Resignation of Andrew Lukowiak from the Company and the Executive Board Effective May 31, 2023 Epigenomics AG announced that Member of the Executive Board, President, and Chief Scientific Officer Dr. Andrew Lukowiak, and the Company's Supervisory Board agreed on his resignation from the Company and the Executive Board effective May 31, 2023. Between now and the resignation date Dr. Lukowiak will continue to support the Company’s restructuring efforts in coordination with the Supervisory Board. The Company continues to be committed to maximizing the value of its technology through corporate partnering, licensing and/or asset sales. Dr. Lukowiak has been a Member of the Executive Board, President, and CSO of Epigenomics AG since December 2021. His broad contributions across the organization have been instrumental in furthering the Company’s colorectal cancer diagnostics’ program, including his systematic optimization of R&D structure and processes, as well as his execution of complementary partnerships. However, in recent months, in the current capital market environment, the Company has been unable to raise additional capital to secure funding for the FDA pivotal study of the "Next-Gen" test. In response, the restructuring of the Company was initiated on February 15, 2023 to minimize costs. Against this backdrop, the resignation of Dr. Andrew Lukowiak now also takes place. Reported Earnings • May 01
Full year 2022 earnings released: €2.96 loss per share (vs €0.87 loss in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: €2.96 loss per share (further deteriorated from €0.87 loss in FY 2021). Net loss: €12.0m (loss widened 395% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 67% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Germany. Price Target Changed • Dec 22
Price target increased to €1.17 Up from €1.07, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 207% above last closing price of €0.38. Stock is down 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.71 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.22 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 16
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.99 to -€0.74 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from €544.5k at last update. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 2.6% next year. Consensus price target of €1.07 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 6.4% to €0.35 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 16
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Epigenomics no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €15.4m in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €11.2m in 2024. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: €0.10 loss per share. Net loss: €1.56m (down 155% from profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 73% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Germany. Annuncio • Sep 20
Epigenomics Ag Reaffirms Revenue Guidance for the Full Year 2022 Epigenomics AG reaffirmed revenue guidance for the full year 2022. For the period, the company revenue forecast remains unchanged between EUR 0.3 million to EUR 0.8 million. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: €126.0k (up 7.7% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: €1.30m (loss narrowed 44% from 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 91% compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in Germany. Price Target Changed • Aug 12
Price target decreased to €0.98 Down from €1.07, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 97% above last closing price of €0.50. Stock is down 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.99 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.22 last year. Annuncio • Aug 12
Epigenomics AG Confirms Outlook for Fiscal Year 2022 Epigenomics AG confirmed outlook for fiscal year 2022 and continues to expect revenue within the range of EUR 0.3 million to EUR 0.8 million. Price Target Changed • Jun 01
Price target increased to €1.07 Up from €0.95, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 119% above last closing price of €0.49. Stock is down 73% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.99 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.22 last year. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: €0.17 loss per share. Revenue: €115.0k (up 8.5% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: €2.66m (loss widened 121% from 1Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 41%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 91% compared to a 36% growth forecast for the industry in Germany. Annuncio • May 12
Epigenomics AG Confirms Earnings Guidance for the Year 2022 Epigenomics AG confirmed earnings guidance for the year 2022. For the year, The company expects revenue within the range of EUR 0.3 million to EUR 0.8 million. If Medicare reimbursement is indeed achieved via legislation in 2022, the Company is likely to amend the revenue forecast. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to €0.95 Down from €1.14, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 96% above last closing price of €0.48. Stock is down 61% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.02 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.22 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 27
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Epigenomics no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €15.4m in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €11.2m in 2024. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 05
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Epigenomics no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €15.4m in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €11.2m in 2024. Price Target Changed • Mar 28
Price target decreased to €0.95 Down from €1.14, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 76% above last closing price of €0.54. Stock is down 78% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.02 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.22 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.23 (vs €0.47 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €5.80m (up €5.58m from 3Q 2020). Net income: €2.84m (up €5.59m from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 49% (up from net loss in 3Q 2020). Price Target Changed • Nov 11
Price target decreased to €1.14 Down from €1.49, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 30% above last closing price of €0.88. Stock is down 76% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.94 next year compared to a net loss per share of €2.02 last year. Annuncio • Aug 18
New Horizon Health Limited (SEHK:6606) entered into an agreement to acquire certain non-essential biological samples from Epigenomics AG (XTRA:ECX) for $6.7 million. New Horizon Health Limited (SEHK:6606) entered into an agreement to acquire certain non-essential biological samples from Epigenomics AG (XTRA:ECX) for $6.7 million on August 17, 2021. The gross proceeds of $6.7 million will be paid as; $4.7 million at closing and the remaining is payable within 90 days upon providing verification of sample integrity and documentation. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: €0.21 loss per share (vs €0.57 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €117.0k (up 41% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: €2.33m (loss narrowed 31% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 59% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 12
Price target decreased to €1.44 Down from €6.37, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 10% above last closing price of €1.30. Stock is down 91% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 03
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 losses forecast to reduce from -€1.41 to -€1.19 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €597.7k. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 0.7% next year. Consensus price target of €8.75 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 25% to €1.83 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • May 21
Forecast to breakeven in 2023 The 2 analysts covering Epigenomics expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 25% per year to 2022. The company is expected to make a profit of €4.48m in 2023. Average annual earnings growth of 61% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2021 earnings released: €0.20 loss per share (vs €0.55 loss in 1Q 2020) First quarter 2021 results: Net loss: €1.20m (loss narrowed 60% from 1Q 2020). Annuncio • May 12
Epigenomics AG Announces Earnings Guidance for the Year 2021 Epigenomics AG announced earnings guidance for the year 2021. For the year, the company its outlook continues to expect revenue within the range of EUR 0.4 million to EUR 1.0 million. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 29
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from €595.4k to €1.00m. EPS estimate reaffirmed at -€1.41 per share. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 0.7% next year. Consensus price target of €14.97 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 18% to €1.24 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 28
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from €7.55m to €10.8m. EPS estimate fell from -€0.95 to -€1.36 per share. Biotechs industry in Germany expected to see average net income growth of 2.3% next year. Consensus price target up from €16.27 to €21.20. Share price rose 18% to €2.65 over the past week. Annuncio • Mar 27
Epigenomics AG Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year 2021 Epigenomics AG provided earnings guidance for the year 2021. For 2021 financial outlook is a revenue range of EUR 400,000 to EUR 1 million. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 03
New 90-day low: €2.30 The company is down 37% from its price of €3.66 on 03 December 2020. The German market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 6.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.09 per share. Price Target Changed • Feb 13
Price target lowered to €16.27 Down from €23.73, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 538% above the current share price of €2.55. As of last close, the stock is down 77% over the past year. Annuncio • Jan 29
Epigenomics AG Announces Resignation of Jorge Garces as Executive Board Member Effective January 31, 2021 Epigenomics AG announced that Dr. Jorge Garces, President and Chief Scientific Officer is resigning as an Executive Board member effective January 31, 2021. Dr. Garces will transition to a company Advisor role to assist the company through the end of 2021 with execution of strategic alternatives. Annuncio • Jan 21
Epigenomics Ag Announces the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Have Issued A Negative Reimbursement Decision in Connection with the National Coverage Determination (NCD) of Epi proColon, Epigenomics' Blood Test for Colorectal Cancer Screening Epigenomics AG announced that the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) have issued a negative reimbursement decision in connection with the National Coverage Determination (NCD) of Epi proColon, Epigenomics' blood test for colorectal cancer screening. The Company is currently evaluating options for an appeal, litigation and/or other alternatives to achieve Medicare coverage. Annuncio • Nov 13
Epigenomics AG Pulls Revenue Guidance for the Year 2020 Due to Covid-19 Epigenomics AG announced that due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the effects of Covid-19, Epigenomics AG, like many publicly traded companies and as already explained in the first half 2020 report, has pulled its revenue guidance for 2020. Annuncio • Oct 18
Epigenomics AG announces the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have issued a negative reimbursement proposal in connection with the National Coverage Determination of Epi proColon, Epigenomics' blood test for colorectal cancer screening Epigenomics AG announced that the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) have issued a negative reimbursement proposal in connection with the National Coverage Determination (NCD) of Epi proColon, Epigenomics' blood test for colorectal cancer screening. The proposed NCD is preliminary. According to the statutes, a 30-day public comment period will now begin, which will be used to further convince CMS of the benefits of Epi proColon in the fight against colorectal cancer. The public response during the initial public comment period at the beginning of the NCD was overwhelmingly positive. Following the comment period, CMS will publish their final decision within 60 days. If the final decision is also negative, the Company will take the opportunity to appeal the decision. Annuncio • Aug 24
Epigenomics Ag Pulls Its Revenue Guidance for 2020 Epigenomics AG announced that the company is pulling its revenue guidance for 2020. 