Shell Midstream Partners, L.P.

NYSE:SHLX Rapport sur les actions

Capitalisation boursière : US$6.2b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Shell Midstream Partners Croissance future

Future contrôle des critères 1/6

Le chiffre d'affaires de Shell Midstream Partners devrait diminuer de 1.9% par an, tandis que ses bénéfices annuels devraient croître de 13.7% par an. Le BPA devrait croître de , augmenter de 6.6% par an.

Informations clés

13.7%

Taux de croissance des bénéfices

6.63%

Taux de croissance du BPA

Oil and Gas croissance des bénéfices11.3%
Taux de croissance des recettes-1.9%
Rendement futur des capitaux propresn/a
Couverture par les analystes

Low

Dernière mise à journ/a

Mises à jour récentes de la croissance future

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

Shell Midstream Partners declares $0.30 dividend

Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE:SHLX) declares $0.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 8.32% Payable Aug. 12; for shareholders of record Aug. 2; ex-div Aug. 1. See SHLX Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 12

Shell Midstream Going Private Gives Investors A Low-Risk Opportunity

Shell Midstream Partners has had terrible stock price results since its 2014 IPO. The limited partnership must be judged by industry economics. At present, conditions are such that the company is likely to perform strongly on the market. The upward trajectory of the stock price means that the company’s general partner and controlling shareholder is likely to have to pay a large premium on its first proposal to take the company private. Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. (SHLX) is likely to go private within the next 12 months, as the energy sector privatizes its midstream limited partnerships. Given the industry's economics at present, the company's share price is on an upward trend that will persist regardless of what happens with its market status. That puts shareholders in a strong position to earn a huge premium on Shell's (SHEL) first proposal. This is a very low-risk opportunity for investors. Shell Midstream Partners' Assets Shell Midstream Partners LP was formed by Shell on March 19, 2014. It operates pipeline and other midstream and logistics assets through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shell Midstream Operating LLC, or through direct ownership. 2021 10-K The company's assets can be categorized as being of three forms: Crude oil and refined products pipelines and terminals that transport crude oil to the Gulf Coast and Midwest and transport refined products from there to major demand centers; Storage tanks and financing receivables for the staging and transportation of intermediate and finished products; Natural gas and refinery gas pipelines that serve the Gulf Coast. The geographical distribution of the company's assets is shown in the map below. "Overview of Assets", Shell Midstream Partners LP Explaining Past Dismal Historic Stock Performance Since its initial public offering ((IPO)), when the Shell Midstream Partners' LP opened at $32 per share, the company's stock price performance has returned a compound return of over -9.6% per year, destroying shareholder value. Google Finance Asset Growth Effects Midstream limited partnerships (MLPs) were popular a decade ago, because of their high dividend yields (Shell Midstream Partners has a dividend yield of 8.42%) in a low interest rate environment. Investors placed a bet on stable stock prices and high dividend yield, delivering them healthy positive returns. In 2014, Shell Midstream Partners had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 422! Investors were hungry for MLPs. What they did not account for was the possibility of equity prices nose-diving. The company's dismal performance is reflective of the performance of the energy sector since the Great Recession of 2008. For example, over the last five years, the MSCI World Energy Index has returned 5.34%, compared to 7.67% for the MSCI World Index. Not only has energy underperformed the broad market, energy has made its gains with higher risks, with the MSCI World Energy Index having a Sharpe Ratio of 0.29 in that 5-year period, compared to 0.46 for the MSCI World Index. The energy sector is one in which the major drivers of returns are asset growth effects: asset growth is inversely related to future returns in an environment in which no firm has pricing power, and everyone is instead forced to grow their assets when the price is high and rising, and contract assets when prices are declining. This can be seen from the company's own results: between 2014 and 2021, the company dramatically scaled assets from $730 million to over $2.3 billion. Capital Flight This general pattern was a result of MLPs following the general economics of energy firms. The industry is, famously, one of boom and bust cycles. Between 2006 and 2014, the sector's total debt grew from $1 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Annual capital expenditure in the 2000 and 2013 period more than doubled. As assets grew, so did excess supply. Yet, at the midpoint of the decade, oil fell from $100 per barrel (bbl), to less than $28/bbl in 2016. Oil wells were rendered unprofitable, and many producers found themselves struggling. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2015, more than 80% of the U.S. oil industry's operating cash flow was used for debt servicing. Capital expenditure was reduced by half as firms strove to improve their cash position and profitability. In the years 2016 and 2017, 300 American oil firms went bankrupt, 250,000 jobs were lost, and $250 billion in capital was destroyed. Annual capital expenditure plunged from $800 billion in 2014 to less than $500 billion in the years 2016 to 2019. The industry has also suffered a flight of capital as ESG investors have abandoned the market. For instance, since October 2021, the Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP, the Netherlands' pension fund for government employees, has been selling off its energy positions regardless of their profitability. Not only are investors leaving the industry, but firms within the industry are being pushed to reorient their activity away from oil & gas. For example, Engine No. 1 defeated Exxon Mobil's (XOM) management in a bid to shift the company toward renewables. Energy Inertia A leading narrative driving capital flight has been that fossil fuels are on their way out and that the industry is headed toward a doomsday scenario. Yet, this narrative ignores reality. As the chart from the International Energy Agency shows, oil and gas remain the two primary sources of energy, with the share of gas growing sharply between 1971 and 2019. International Energy Agency Rather than rapid energy transformation, the world is characterized by energy inertia. Supply-Side Shocks Have Changed the Market Despite the company's terrible stock price performance, its financial results have been positive. Although returns on invested capital ((ROIC)) in 2014 were a very low 3.04%, by 2015, they were 29.3%. However, they fell sharply from then to 2020, when they bottomed at 13.8%. In 2021, ROIC was 14.2% and stands at 14.5% today. The company has turned a corner thanks to global energy markets going on a strong bull run, due to a combination of supply-side shocks such as the pandemic, the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the industry's capital discipline has kept production stable.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 02

Shell Midstream: Prime Assets, Subprime Valuation

Shell midstream has grappled with operational issues in the past 12 months. The asset base is excellent, but the valuation fully prices this in. We do admire what we are buying and found a way to put in a good bid.
Seeking Alpha • Nov 22

Shell Midstream Partners: Higher Distributions Would Do More Harm Than Good

Even though Shell Midstream Partners reduced their distributions only a few months ago, management has already flagged the potential for higher unitholder returns, including higher distributions. Whilst this sounds exciting, they have minimal scope to fund significantly higher distributions without eroding their margin of safety. When looking towards 2022 and beyond, they should have distribution coverage of approximately 130% but with almost no capital expenditure and, thus, no growth outlook. If they were to push their distributions higher, the higher risks would likely further suppress their unit price as investors worry of another reduction and thus do more harm than good. I am still maintaining my very bullish rating due to the very high desirability of their current very high 10%+ distribution yield.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 15

Shell Midstream Partners: Time To Buy With Dust Now Settling, Intrinsic Value 30%+ Higher

Shell Midstream Partners finally reduced their distributions by a large 35% after sustaining them throughout the turmoil of 2020. Although tempting to blame Covid-19, it was actually due to the upcoming higher distributions payable to their general partner, Royal Dutch Shell. Now that they are rebased lower, they are safe and sustainable with strong coverage and a strong financial position. Even without seeing any future growth, their intrinsic value appears at least 30%+ higher with very favorably skewed results from a Monte Carlo Simulation. Since this provides investors a desirable opportunity to generate alpha as they tread water, I believe that upgrading to a very bullish rating is now appropriate.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 29

Shell Midstream Cuts The Distribution

The distribution cut largely conforms to market expectations. A plan to properly use the cash flow in the business is needed. Management needs to show results before the units respond to the management framework. The coming preferred conversion will raise the amount of distribution cash needed each quarter. The distribution is solid. But there are better opportunities for income investors until management has a clear-cut strategy for the retained cash.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

Shell Midstream: Post Distribution Cut, Still A Wait And See

Shell Midstream finally took its medicine, cutting the distribution by roughly 30%. Long expected by nearly every midstream analyst, the partnership finally broke down and made a move that they needed to. Post cut purchases often work out pretty well in midstream, but there are several rough quarters ahead. I'd advise sitting on one's hands and waiting for a better deal.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 19

Shell Midstream Partners: High Stakes For Their 13% Yield Heading Into Their Q2 Earnings

The distributions of Shell Midstream Partners face high stakes heading into their second-quarter earnings with them remaining risky. Whilst they saw a solid first quarter of 2021, the bigger issue is their lack of clear direction regarding how they intend to utilize their future free cash flow. Management continues to repeatedly talk about growth, but never provides any details, which creates uncertainty that hangs over their units and keeps investors guessing. Whilst they have outlined a cost reduction strategy, it does not move the needle for their free cash flow or financial position. Disappointingly, uncertainty still remains since my previous article, but at least their very high 13% distribution yield compensates and thus I am still maintaining my bullish rating.

Prévisions de croissance des bénéfices et des revenus

NYSE:SHLX - Estimations futures des analystes et données financières antérieures (USD Millions )
DateRecettesLes revenusFlux de trésorerie disponibleCash from OpMoy. Nombre d'analystes
12/31/20235476497607232
12/31/20225796036817071
6/30/2022553489588602N/A
3/31/2022552503591603N/A
12/31/2021556508601612N/A
9/30/2021545533619636N/A
6/30/2021527541625647N/A
3/31/2021499520633654N/A
12/31/2020481452623650N/A
9/30/2020477421618642N/A
6/30/2020492403645668N/A
3/31/2020493359574609N/A
12/31/2019503381559597N/A
9/30/2019520397555597N/A
6/30/2019548404529577N/A
3/31/2019556398498548N/A
12/31/2018525330458507N/A
9/30/2018509294401454N/A
6/30/2018478237368425N/A
3/31/2018461209369425N/A
12/31/2017470231374432N/A
9/30/2017535225468527N/A
6/30/2017495219430482N/A
3/31/2017470226421473N/A
12/31/2016453220383429N/A
9/30/2016346215274307N/A
6/30/2016360219282313N/A
3/31/2016353191N/A283N/A
12/31/2015486162N/A396N/A

Prévisions de croissance des analystes

Taux de revenus par rapport au taux d'épargne: La croissance des bénéfices prévue de SHLX ( 13.7% par an) est supérieure au taux d'épargne ( 2% ).

Bénéfices vs marché: Les bénéfices de SHLX ( 13.7% par an) devraient croître plus lentement que le marché US ( 16.8% par an).

Croissance élevée des bénéfices: Les bénéfices de SHLX devraient augmenter, mais pas de manière significative.

Chiffre d'affaires vs marché: Les revenus de SHLX devraient diminuer au cours des 3 prochaines années ( -1.9% par an).

Croissance élevée des revenus: Les revenus de SHLX devraient diminuer au cours des 3 prochaines années ( -1.9% par an).

Prévisions de croissance du bénéfice par action

Rendement futur des capitaux propres

ROE futur: Données insuffisantes pour déterminer si le retour sur capitaux propres de SHLX devrait être élevé dans 3 ans

Découvrir les entreprises en croissance

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1Y

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1Y

Analyse de l'entreprise et données financières

DonnéesDernière mise à jour (heure UTC)
Analyse de l'entreprise2022/10/19 18:14
Cours de l'action en fin de journée2022/10/18 00:00
Les revenus2022/06/30
Revenus annuels2021/12/31

Sources de données

Les données utilisées dans notre analyse de l'entreprise proviennent de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Les données suivantes sont utilisées dans notre modèle d'analyse pour générer ce rapport. Les données sont normalisées, ce qui peut entraîner un délai avant que la source ne soit disponible.

PaquetDonnéesCadre temporelExemple de source américaine *
Finances de l'entreprise10 ans
  • Compte de résultat
  • Tableau des flux de trésorerie
  • Bilan
Estimations consensuelles des analystes+3 ans
  • Prévisions financières
  • Objectifs de prix des analystes
Prix du marché30 ans
  • Cours des actions
  • Dividendes, scissions et actions
Propriété10 ans
  • Actionnaires principaux
  • Délits d'initiés
Gestion10 ans
  • L'équipe dirigeante
  • Conseil d'administration
Principaux développements10 ans
  • Annonces de l'entreprise

* Exemple pour les titres américains ; pour les titres non américains, des formulaires réglementaires et des sources équivalentes sont utilisés.

Sauf indication contraire, toutes les données financières sont basées sur une période annuelle mais mises à jour trimestriellement. C'est ce qu'on appelle les données des douze derniers mois (TTM) ou des douze derniers mois (LTM). En savoir plus.

Modèle d'analyse et flocon de neige

Les détails du modèle d’analyse utilisé pour générer ce rapport sont disponibles sur notre page Github; nous proposons également des guides expliquant comment utiliser nos rapports et des tutoriels sur Youtube.

Découvrez l'équipe de classe mondiale qui a conçu et construit le modèle d'analyse Simply Wall St.

Indicateurs de l'industrie et du secteur

Nos indicateurs de secteur et de section sont calculés toutes les 6 heures par Simply Wall St. Les détails de notre processus sont disponibles sur Github.

Sources des analystes

Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. est couverte par 11 analystes. 3 de ces analystes ont soumis les estimations de revenus ou de bénéfices utilisées comme données d'entrée dans notre rapport. Les soumissions des analystes sont mises à jour tout au long de la journée.

AnalysteInstitution
Brian ZarahnBarclays
Derek WalkerBofA Global Research
Ryan LevineCitigroup Inc