Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 03
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.4% to JP¥453. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥571, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 18%. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥8.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 June 2026. Payment date: 31 August 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.3%). Declared Dividend • Apr 11
Final dividend of JP¥8.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥8.00. Ex-date: 29th June 2026 Payment date: 31st August 2026 Dividend yield will be 6.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (218% earnings payout ratio). However, it is well covered by cash flows (22% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 4.8% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 142% to bring the payout ratio under control. However, EPS has declined by 30% over the last 5 years so the company would need to reverse this trend. Annonce • Mar 13
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 28, 2026 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on Apr 28, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 06
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 28% After last week's 28% share price decline to JP¥464, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 20.7x. Average trailing P/E is 16x in the Media industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 70% over the past three years. New Risk • Feb 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 9.9% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (218% payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.2% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.0% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥10.3b market cap, or US$66.3m). Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥22.47 (vs JP¥113 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥22.47 (down from JP¥113 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥24.2b (down 21% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥487.0m (down 83% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 2.0% (down from 9.4% in FY 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 30% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Annonce • Jan 30
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2026 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2026. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥24.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2025. Payment date: 06 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 41% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 7.1%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Annonce • Dec 03
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Jan 30, 2026 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Jan 30, 2026 Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.87 (vs JP¥28.92 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥18.87 (down from JP¥28.92 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥4.85b (down 34% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥409.0m (down 35% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 8.4% (down from 8.5% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 30% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Media industry in Japan are expected to grow by 5.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 31% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Declared Dividend • Aug 30
First half dividend of JP¥24.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥24.00. Ex-date: 29th December 2025 Payment date: 6th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 6.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (38% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (46% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 100% over the next 3 years. Since a fall of 58% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥38.35 (vs JP¥23.68 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥38.35 (up from JP¥23.68 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.78b (up 6.5% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥831.0m (up 39% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 11% (up from 8.2% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 31% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Media industry in Japan are expected to grow by 6.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 33% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥25.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 June 2025. Payment date: 01 September 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 43% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.0%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (4.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.1%). Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥48.61 (vs JP¥28.23 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥48.61 (up from JP¥28.23 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥8.18b (up 6.9% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.05b (up 15% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 13% (up from 12% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 29% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Media industry in Japan are expected to grow by 11%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 40% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Declared Dividend • Apr 11
Final dividend of JP¥25.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥25.00. Ex-date: 27th June 2025 Payment date: 1st September 2025 Dividend yield will be 7.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (50% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (35% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 17% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 97% over the next 3 years. Since a fall of 44% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥113. Revenue: JP¥30.4b (up 3.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥2.86b (down 16% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.4% (down from 12% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is expected to decline by 27% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Media industry in Japan are expected to grow by 4.2%. Annonce • Mar 13
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2025 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 30, 2025 New Risk • Mar 07
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 14% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.6% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 14% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Price Target Changed • Mar 07
Price target decreased by 19% to JP¥1,100 Down from JP¥1,350, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 34% above last closing price of JP¥823. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥105 for next year compared to JP¥113 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 39% After last week's 39% share price decline to JP¥740, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Media industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 78% over the past three years. New Risk • Feb 03
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.6% average weekly change). Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Feb 01
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥113. Revenue: JP¥30.4b (up 3.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥2.86b (down 16% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.4% (down from 12% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥29.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 December 2024. Payment date: 05 March 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 52% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.3%). Annonce • Dec 03
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Jan 31, 2025 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Jan 31, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥28.92 (vs JP¥25.61 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥28.92. Revenue: JP¥7.31b (up 5.0% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥625.0m (down 25% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.5% (down from 12% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to JP¥988, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Media industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 72% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥23.68 (vs JP¥25.64 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥23.68 (down from JP¥25.64 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥7.30b (up 2.8% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥599.0m (down 28% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.2% (down from 12% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 32% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Annonce • Jul 26
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Resolves to Pay Interim Dividend, Payable on August 30, 2024 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that, at the meeting of its Board of Directors held on July 26, 2024, it has resolved to pay interim dividend of JPY 25.00 per share to the shareholders whose record date was June 30, 2024 against JPY 25.00 per share a year ago. Effective date: August 30, 2024. Annonce • May 25
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Provides Dividend Guidance for the End of the Second Quarter and Year End of the Fiscal Year 2024 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. provided dividend guidance for the end of the second quarter and year end of the fiscal year 2024. The company revised dividend guidance of interim dividend forecast from JPY 22.00 to JPY 25.00 per share.For the year-end dividend, the company now expects dividend of JPY 29.00 compared to previous guidance of to JPY 20.00 per share. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥28.23 (vs JP¥31.57 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥28.23 (down from JP¥31.57 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥7.65b (flat on 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥913.0m (down 11% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 12% (down from 13% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • Apr 11
Final dividend of JP¥22.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥22.00. Ex-date: 27th June 2024 Payment date: 2nd September 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (66% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 8.7% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 01
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 26% to JP¥1,085. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,359, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 11%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.7% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥105 (down from JP¥180 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥29.4b (down 18% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥3.40b (down 41% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 16% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 13
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 25% to JP¥1,066. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,368, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 11%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.7% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Mar 08
Price target decreased by 12% to JP¥1,500 Down from JP¥1,700, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 42% above last closing price of JP¥1,059. Stock is down 37% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥101 for next year compared to JP¥105 last year. Annonce • Feb 17
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Announces the Resignation of Takao Nakamura as Outside Director, Audit and Supervisory Committee Member ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced the resignation of Takao Nakamura as Outside Director, Audit and Supervisory Committee Member. Reported Earnings • Feb 01
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥105 (down from JP¥180 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥29.4b (down 18% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥3.40b (down 41% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 16% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Jan 31
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (23% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 31
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥1,267, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Media industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 58% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,551 per share. Annonce • Jan 30
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 22, 2024 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 22, 2024. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥25.00 per share at 3.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 December 2023. Payment date: 09 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 66% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.7%). Annonce • Dec 05
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2024 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Jan 30, 2024 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥25.61 (down from JP¥42.96 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥6.96b (down 18% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥828.0m (down 40% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 17% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Annonce • Oct 29
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. Provides Dividend Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of Fiscal Year 2023 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. expected to pay dividend of JPY 25.00 per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 compared to JPY 29 per share paid a year ago. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥32.3b to JP¥29.7b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥128 per share to JP¥109 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 20% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Media industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥1,467 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥1,288 over the past week. New Risk • Sep 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Jul 29
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.64 (vs JP¥45.65 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥25.64 (down from JP¥45.65 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.10b (down 19% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥829.0m (down 44% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 17% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥25.00 per share at 3.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 June 2023. Payment date: 31 August 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.4%). Price Target Changed • Jun 13
Price target decreased by 13% to JP¥1,833 Down from JP¥2,100, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 26% above last closing price of JP¥1,459. Stock is down 52% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥128 for next year compared to JP¥180 last year. Buying Opportunity • Jun 08
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 15%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,809, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 6.4% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 1.0% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 28
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 23% After last week's 23% share price decline to JP¥1,312, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Media industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 41% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,275 per share. Reported Earnings • Apr 01
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥180 (up from JP¥101 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥35.7b (up 6.4% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥5.81b (up 78% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 9.7% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 4.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥40.2b to JP¥36.7b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥190 per share to JP¥154 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 14% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Media industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥2,567 to JP¥2,233. Share price fell 8.9% to JP¥1,627 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥180 (up from JP¥101 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥35.7b (up 6.4% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥5.81b (up 78% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 9.7% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 4.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥29.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2022. Payment date: 07 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 14% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.7%). Price Target Changed • Dec 09
Price target decreased to JP¥3,158 Down from JP¥3,583, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 59% above last closing price of JP¥1,988. Stock is down 58% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥188 for next year compared to JP¥101 last year. Annonce • Dec 06
ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Jan 30, 2023 ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Jan 30, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Haruka Ikeda was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: JP¥42.96 (vs JP¥43.29 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥42.96 (down from JP¥43.29 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥8.44b (up 3.6% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥1.39b (flat on 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 17% (in line with 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Media industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Sep 07
Price target decreased to JP¥3,670 Down from JP¥4,220, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 53% above last closing price of JP¥2,398. Stock is down 50% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥192 for next year compared to JP¥101 last year. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: JP¥48.40 (vs JP¥42.34 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥48.40 (up from JP¥42.34 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥9.14b (up 14% from 2Q 2021). Net income: JP¥1.56b (up 14% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 17% (in line with 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥27.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 June 2022. Payment date: 31 August 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%).