New Risk • May 09
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 25% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.0% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Major Estimate Revision • May 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 31% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from CN¥103.8b to CN¥113.5b. EPS estimate increased from CN¥1.36 to CN¥1.79 per share. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 58% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target up from CN¥24.85 to CN¥27.74. Share price rose 16% to CN¥24.21 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 30
Price target increased by 12% to CN¥27.74 Up from CN¥24.85, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of CN¥24.21. Stock is up 123% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥1.79 for next year compared to CN¥0.86 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.80 (vs CN¥0.26 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: CN¥0.80 (up from CN¥0.26 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: CN¥23.4b (up 20% from 1Q 2025). Net income: CN¥1.90b (up 211% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 8.1% (up from 3.1% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 82% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Apr 29
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2026 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2026, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: No. 518, Fenghuanghu Avenue, Tongxiang, Zhejiang China Annonce • Mar 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 29, 2026 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 29, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to CN¥20.46, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 39% over the past three years. New Risk • Mar 04
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Chinese stocks, typically moving 7.8% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (8.7% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.8% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Annonce • Dec 26
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 22, 2026 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 22, 2026 Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.19 (up from CN¥0.024 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥23.2b (down 17% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CN¥452.1m (up CN¥510.7m from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.9% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Sep 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 30, 2025 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 30, 2025 Price Target Changed • Sep 17
Price target increased by 8.8% to CN¥16.35 Up from CN¥15.03, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of CN¥14.45. Stock is up 41% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.94 for next year compared to CN¥0.51 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 31
Price target increased by 13% to CN¥15.53 Up from CN¥13.71, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 5.8% above last closing price of CN¥14.67. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.88 for next year compared to CN¥0.51 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 30
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from CN¥100.2b to CN¥91.3b. EPS estimate rose from CN¥0.821 to CN¥0.913. Net income forecast to grow 98% next year vs 48% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target up from CN¥13.71 to CN¥14.56. Share price rose 2.8% to CN¥14.67 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Jul 06
Dividend increased to CN¥0.10 Dividend of CN¥0.10 is 133% higher than last year. Ex-date: 10th July 2025 Payment date: 10th July 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.6%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (19% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (19% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 155% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Jun 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 29, 2025 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 29, 2025 New Risk • Apr 30
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 1.2% Last year net profit margin: 2.1% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.8x net interest cover). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.2% net profit margin). New Risk • Apr 29
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 0.9% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.5x net interest cover). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.51 (up from CN¥0.34 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥101.3b (up 23% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥1.20b (up 51% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 1.2% (up from 1.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 60 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Annonce • Apr 26
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2025 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2025, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: No. 518, Fenghuanghu Avenue, Tongxiang, Zhejiang China Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to CN¥10.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 40% over the past three years. Annonce • Mar 28
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2025 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 30, 2025 Annonce • Dec 27
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 26, 2025 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 26, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 41%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from CN¥93.3b to CN¥95.5b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥1.03 to CN¥0.612 per share. Net income forecast to grow 235% next year vs 53% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥15.88 to CN¥15.13. Share price rose 4.0% to CN¥12.36 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2024 results: CN¥0.024 loss per share (down from CN¥0.43 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥27.8b (up 12% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: CN¥58.6m (down 107% from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 20%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 63 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Annonce • Sep 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2024 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 31, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to CN¥12.37, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CN¥12.14 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from CN¥1.24 to CN¥1.05 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥92.0b. Net income forecast to grow 85% next year vs 45% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥16.87 to CN¥15.88. Share price fell 2.1% to CN¥11.45 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 30
Price target decreased by 8.4% to CN¥15.45 Down from CN¥16.87, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 30% above last closing price of CN¥11.89. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥1.06 for next year compared to CN¥0.34 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.21 (down from CN¥0.21 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥27.1b (up 29% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CN¥485.3m (down 19% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 2.8% in 2Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 18%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 42%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 57 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 31
Now 26% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.0% to CN¥14.05. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥11.12, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 15% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 148% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 11
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.6% to CN¥15.06. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥12.19, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 14% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 151% in the next 2 years. Annonce • Jun 28
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 29, 2024 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 29, 2024 Annonce • Apr 29
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2024 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 21, 2024, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: The Company's Meeting Room, Tongxiang, Zhejiang China Reported Earnings • Apr 27
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.34 (up from CN¥0.055 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥82.6b (up 33% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥797.0m (up CN¥666.8m from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (up from 0.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 48%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 54 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Annonce • Mar 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 30, 2024 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 30, 2024 Annonce • Dec 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Apr 27, 2024 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Apr 27, 2024 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.43 (up from CN¥0.15 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥24.8b (up 43% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CN¥798.3m (up CN¥1.16b from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 48%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 27%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Sep 30
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 28, 2023 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results at 3:00 PM, China Standard Time on Oct 28, 2023 New Risk • Sep 26
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 1.7% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings have declined by 1.7% per year over the past 5 years. Price Target Changed • Sep 19
Price target increased by 8.6% to CN¥17.33 Up from CN¥15.96, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of CN¥15.28. Stock is up 5.7% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.80 for next year compared to CN¥0.055 last year. Price Target Changed • Sep 07
Price target increased by 8.8% to CN¥16.82 Up from CN¥15.46, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 9.8% above last closing price of CN¥15.32. Stock is up 3.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.91 for next year compared to CN¥0.055 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 30
Second quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.21 (down from CN¥0.34 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥21.0b (up 25% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CN¥595.5m (down 25% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.8% (down from 4.7% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 75%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 54%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 4% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Jun 28
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 30, 2023 Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Aug 30, 2023 Price Target Changed • May 29
Price target decreased by 10% to CN¥14.56 Down from CN¥16.26, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 20% above last closing price of CN¥12.13. Stock is down 28% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥1.30 for next year compared to CN¥0.055 last year. Price Target Changed • May 12
Price target decreased by 7.3% to CN¥15.08 Down from CN¥16.26, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of CN¥12.72. Stock is down 17% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥1.36 for next year compared to CN¥0.055 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.055 (down from CN¥3.23 in FY 2021). Revenue: CN¥62.0b (up 4.8% from FY 2021). Net income: CN¥130.2m (down 98% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 0.2% (down from 13% in FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 93%. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 4% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥72.9b to CN¥72.2b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥1.91 per share to CN¥1.39 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 6.1% next year vs 39% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CN¥16.26. Share price fell 4.4% to CN¥13.22 over the past week. Annonce • Feb 17
Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601233) entered into an agreement to acquire Tongkun (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd. from Tongkun Holding Group Co., Ltd for CNY 2.4 million. Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601233) entered into an agreement to acquire Tongkun (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd. from Tongkun Holding Group Co., Ltd for CNY 2.4 million on February 15, 2023. Tongkun Group board approves the acquisition. As of December 31, 2022, EBIT of CNY 0 million, total assets of CNY 5.15511619 million, total common equity of CNY 2.34542982 million and net income of CNY -1.93688714 million. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from CN¥1.01 to CN¥0.797 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥65.5b. Net income forecast to grow 36% next year vs 41% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥16.25 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at CN¥15.57 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to CN¥16.25 Down from CN¥18.34, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of CN¥14.10. Stock is down 28% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥1.06 for next year compared to CN¥3.17 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 12 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (7 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 53% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥68.0b to CN¥66.9b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥2.27 per share to CN¥1.06 per share. Net income forecast to grow 63% next year vs 44% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥18.34 to CN¥16.25. Share price was steady at CN¥12.52 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 02
Price target decreased to CN¥16.85 Down from CN¥18.34, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 36% above last closing price of CN¥12.42. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥1.05 for next year compared to CN¥3.17 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: CN¥0.15 loss per share (down from CN¥0.89 profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥17.3b (down 14% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: CN¥366.2m (down 118% from profit in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.34 (down from CN¥1.06 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥16.9b (down 12% from 2Q 2021). Net income: CN¥798.4m (down 67% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 4.7% (down from 13% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 58%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 23%, compared to a 40% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 25
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from CN¥2.92 to CN¥2.05 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥67.5b. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 41% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CN¥19.60. Share price fell 5.4% to CN¥14.62 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jul 29
Price target decreased to CN¥19.77 Down from CN¥21.98, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of CN¥14.43. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥2.93 for next year compared to CN¥3.17 last year. Major Estimate Revision • May 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥68.5b to CN¥67.7b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥3.46 per share to CN¥3.02 per share. Net income forecast to grow 7.3% next year vs 40% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥26.26 to CN¥21.98. Share price rose 6.2% to CN¥15.19 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 30
Price target decreased to CN¥22.94 Down from CN¥26.26, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 51% above last closing price of CN¥15.19. Stock is down 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥2.76 for next year compared to CN¥3.17 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.62 (down from CN¥0.76 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥13.0b (up 17% from 1Q 2021). Net income: CN¥1.50b (down 13% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 12% (down from 15% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 13%, compared to a 43% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 18
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from CN¥3.74 to CN¥2.46 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥66.7b. Net income forecast to shrink 19% next year vs 47% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China . Consensus price target down from CN¥28.43 to CN¥27.37. Share price was steady at CN¥17.21 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 13
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: CN¥3.17 (up from CN¥1.52 in FY 2020). Revenue: CN¥60.1b (up 31% from FY 2020). Net income: CN¥7.32b (up 157% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 12% (up from 6.2% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 46% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 07
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 19% share price decline to CN¥17.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 37% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CN¥7.22 per share. Price Target Changed • Nov 07
Price target decreased to CN¥29.57 Down from CN¥31.89, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. New target price is 56% above last closing price of CN¥18.90. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥3.37 for next year compared to CN¥1.52 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.89 (vs CN¥0.43 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥20.2b (up 76% from 3Q 2020). Net income: CN¥2.03b (up 157% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 10% (up from 6.9% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Oct 31
Price target decreased to CN¥31.52 Down from CN¥33.92, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. New target price is 58% above last closing price of CN¥19.94. Stock is up 32% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥3.30 for next year compared to CN¥1.52 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 21
Price target increased to CN¥33.92 Up from CN¥31.66, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 32% above last closing price of CN¥25.63. Stock is up 55% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.06 (vs CN¥0.32 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥19.1b (up 40% from 2Q 2020). Net income: CN¥2.42b (up 314% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 4.3% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year. Price Target Changed • Jul 21
Price target increased to CN¥31.31 Up from CN¥29.04, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 17% above last closing price of CN¥26.75. Stock is up 72% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase to CN¥2.82 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from CN¥55.0b to CN¥55.9b. EPS estimate increased from CN¥2.47 to CN¥2.82 per share. Net income forecast to grow 50% next year vs 45% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in China. Consensus price target up from CN¥27.63 to CN¥29.28. Share price rose 12% to CN¥27.39 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 17
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS CN¥1.52 (vs CN¥1.57 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: CN¥45.8b (down 9.4% from FY 2019). Net income: CN¥2.85b (down 1.3% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from 5.7% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 25
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to CN¥19.92, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 30% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 11
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to CN¥28.69, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 23.7x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 20.4x. This compares to an average P/E of 35x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 69%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 09
New 90-day high: CN¥27.50 The company is up 55% from its price of CN¥17.73 on 11 November 2020. The Chinese market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥5.12 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 21
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to CN¥26.52, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 21.9x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 18.9x. This compares to an average P/E of 37x in the Chemicals industry in China. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 42%. Price Target Changed • Jan 21
Price target raised to CN¥24.52 Up from CN¥22.70, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. The new target price is 7.5% below the current share price of CN¥26.52. As of last close, the stock is up 87% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: CN¥22.49 The company is up 58% from its price of CN¥14.23 on 09 October 2020. The Chinese market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 18% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is CN¥5.54 per share. Price Target Changed • Nov 20
Price target raised to CN¥19.85 Up from CN¥18.53, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. The new target price is 8.5% below the current share price of CN¥21.70. As of last close, the stock is up 67% over the past year.