Major Estimate Revision • Jun 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 39% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from ب.د1.68b to ب.د1.64b. EPS estimate also fell from ب.د0.293 per share to ب.د0.18 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 8.4% next year vs 42% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia . Consensus price target down from ب.د1.56 to ب.د1.50. Share price rose 3.5% to ب.د0.92 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 12
Upcoming dividend of ب.د0.044 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 March 2026. Payment date: 08 April 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.0%. Lower than top quartile of Bahraini dividend payers (7.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). New Risk • Mar 11
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 6.0% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (2.9% average weekly change). New Risk • Mar 09
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Bahraini stocks, typically moving 2.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (2.4% average weekly change). New Risk • Feb 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Declared Dividend • Feb 20
Final dividend increased to ب.د0.044 Dividend of ب.د0.044 is 64% higher than last year. Ex-date: 19th March 2026 Payment date: 8th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.8%, which is about the same as the industry average. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 35%. Cash payout ratio: 27%. Price Target Changed • Feb 19
Price target increased by 10.0% to ب.د1.65 Up from ب.د1.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 46% above last closing price of ب.د1.13. Stock is up 0.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.25 for next year compared to ب.د0.15 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 18
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: ب.د0.15 (up from ب.د0.13 in FY 2024). Revenue: ب.د1.78b (up 9.7% from FY 2024). Net income: ب.د218.7m (up 19% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 12% (in line with FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 10.0%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 22% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Feb 11
Price target increased by 10% to ب.د1.58 Up from ب.د1.44, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 44% above last closing price of ب.د1.10. Stock is up 6.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.14 for next year compared to ب.د0.13 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2025 earnings released Third quarter 2025 results: Revenue: ب.د449.4m (up 3.7% from 3Q 2024). Net income: ب.د67.3m (up 23% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 15% (up from 13% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia are expected to grow by 11%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ب.د1.12, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 30% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.017 (vs ب.د0.048 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: ب.د0.017 (down from ب.د0.048 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: ب.د434.1m (up 6.7% from 2Q 2024). Net income: ب.د24.6m (down 64% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.7% (down from 17% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia are expected to grow by 8.9%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 16
Price target decreased by 9.2% to ب.د1.37 Down from ب.د1.51, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 45% above last closing price of ب.د0.95. Stock is down 17% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.14 for next year compared to ب.د0.13 last year. New Risk • Jun 24
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Bahraini stocks, typically moving 3.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. New Risk • Jun 18
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 5.8% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.013 (vs ب.د0.017 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ب.د0.013 (down from ب.د0.017 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: ب.د409.0m (up 22% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ب.د18.1m (down 26% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.4% (down from 7.3% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Mar 13
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Approves the Distribution of Cash Dividends for the Year Ended 31 December 2024 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. at its 15th Annual General Meeting (AGM) and Extraordinary General Meeting held on 12 March 2025, approved the distribution of cash dividends to shareholders at Fils 45.17 per share or 45.17 % of the paid-up capital (inclusive of the interim dividend of Fils 18.59 per share which was already distributed to shareholders on 11 September 2024), which is BHD 63,948,538 for the year ended 31 December 2024, and the transfer of BHD 120,593,462 to the Retained Earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 12
Upcoming dividend of ب.د0.027 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 March 2025. Payment date: 08 April 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.5%. Lower than top quartile of Bahraini dividend payers (7.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.7%). Annonce • Feb 24
Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) (SASE:1211) completed the acquisition of 20.62% stake in Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (BAX:ALBH) from Sabic Industrial Investments Co Ltd. Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) (SASE:1211) entered into a Share Purchase to acquire 20.62% stake in Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (BAX:ALBH) from Sabic Industrial Investments Co Ltd for approximately BHD 400 million on September 17, 2024. Pursuant to the SPA, the consideration for the Acquisition will consist of an amount paid in cash by Ma'aden to the Seller and shall be within a range of BHD 363,076,960 (equivalent to approximately SAR 3,623,522,555) to BHD 398,213,440 (equivalent to approximately SAR 3,974,186,028), and the agreed upon amount will be determined in accordance with the mechanism specified in the SPA. At completion of the Acquisition, Ma'aden will become the second largest shareholder in Aluminium Bahrain with a 20.62% stake, and will have two board seats in the board of directors of the Aluminium Bahrain at closing. Ma'aden will fund the consideration fully in cash through Ma’aden’s own resources including available facilities. SABIC intends to use the proceeds to reinforce its growth in the chemicals industry.
The Completion of the Acquisition will be subject to obtaining the relevant regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of certain conditions and corporate internal approvals, in accordance with the SPA, also be subject to obtaining the authorization of the ordinary general assembly of Ma'aden on the interest of a common director of Ma'aden and SABIC (the sole shareholder of the Seller).
SNB Capital Company Investment Banking Arm acted as financial advisor for Saudi Arabian Mining Company. Merrill Lynch, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company acted as financial advisor for Saudi Arabian Mining Company. AS&H Clifford Chance acted as legal advisor for Saudi Arabian Mining Company.
Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) (SASE:1211) completed the acquisition of 20.62% stake in Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (BAX:ALBH) from Sabic Industrial Investments Co Ltd on February 23, 2025. Declared Dividend • Feb 21
Final dividend of ب.د0.027 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ب.د0.027. Ex-date: 19th March 2025 Payment date: 8th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.8%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 34%. Cash payout ratio: 38%. Annonce • Feb 21
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., Annual General Meeting, Mar 12, 2025 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., Annual General Meeting, Mar 12, 2025, at 20:00 Arab Standard Time. Location: four seasons hotel, bahrain bay, Bahrain Annonce • Feb 20
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Recommends Final Dividend, Payable on 8Th April 2025 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. allowed Board of Directors to recommend a final dividend tranche of $100 million to be paid starting from 8th April 2025, and that corresponds to 35% dividend payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: ب.د0.13 (up from ب.د0.083 in FY 2023). Revenue: ب.د1.62b (up 5.0% from FY 2023). Net income: ب.د184.5m (up 56% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 11% (up from 7.6% in FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Board Change • Feb 10
High number of new directors There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Director Jihad Hakamy was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from ب.د0.14 to ب.د0.12 per share. Revenue forecast steady at ب.د1.63b. Net income forecast to shrink 48% next year vs 33% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia . Consensus price target of ب.د1.53 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ب.د1.35 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 23
Price target increased by 8.9% to ب.د1.53 Up from ب.د1.40, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of ب.د1.38. Stock is up 26% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.14 for next year compared to ب.د0.083 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.039 (vs ب.د0.012 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ب.د0.039 (up from ب.د0.012 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ب.د433.5m (up 8.4% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ب.د54.5m (up 215% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 13% (up from 4.3% in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • Oct 24
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Appoints Fahad Mohamed Abdulla Danish as Its New Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) Effective 27 October 2024 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. announced the appointment of Fahad Mohamed Abdulla Danish as its new Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) effective 27 October 2024. In this newly established role, Fahad will spearhead Alba's Human Resources strategy, overseeing all aspects of talent management, including workforce planning, recruitment, succession planning, compensation, and benefits. With over 15 years of experience in human resources, Fahad brings a wealth of knowledge and a proven track record of success. Prior to joining Alba, he held senior leadership positions at prominent Bahraini companies including Beyon (Bahrain Telecommunications Company), Bahrain International Circuit, KPMG - Bahrain & Qatar and Ernst & Young - Europe, Middle East, India and Africa (EMEIA). Fahad holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Strathclyde and a Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Business Administration from the New York Institute of Technology. He also completed executive education courses at the University of Strathclyde and Harvard Business School. New Risk • Sep 17
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Bahraini stocks, typically moving 6.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ب.د1.27, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 126% over the past three years. Declared Dividend • Aug 15
First half dividend of ب.د0.019 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ب.د0.019. Ex-date: 27th August 2024 Payment date: 11th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.8%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 31%. Cash payout ratio: 20%. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.048 (vs ب.د0.021 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ب.د0.048 (up from ب.د0.021 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ب.د407.0m (up 5.1% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ب.د68.5m (up 129% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 17% (up from 7.7% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 35% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from ب.د1.55b to ب.د1.58b. EPS estimate increased from ب.د0.13 to ب.د0.145 per share. Net income forecast to grow 144% next year vs 32% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Consensus price target up from ب.د1.40 to ب.د1.45. Share price fell 4.0% to ب.د1.19 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.017 (vs ب.د0.034 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ب.د0.017 (down from ب.د0.034 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ب.د334.6m (down 9.6% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ب.د24.5m (down 49% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.3% (down from 13% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 39% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from ب.د1.63b to ب.د1.55b. EPS estimate also fell from ب.د0.213 per share to ب.د0.13 per share. Net income forecast to grow 54% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Consensus price target of ب.د1.40 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ب.د1.24 over the past week. Annonce • Mar 08
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., Annual General Meeting, Mar 07, 2024 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., Annual General Meeting, Mar 07, 2024, at 08:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Location: Al dana hall, alba, king hamad highway kingdom of bahrain Kingdom of Bahrain Bahrain Agenda: To consider the minutes of AGM 2023; to consider appointment of Mr Khalid AI Rumaihi as the chaiman of board; to consider and the report of board of directors, activities for the year ended on 31 december 2023; to consider audited financial statements for the year ended on 31 december 2023; and to consider other business matters. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 07
Upcoming dividend of ب.د0.016 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 March 2024. Payment date: 31 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of Bahraini dividend payers (7.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.3%). Declared Dividend • Feb 23
Final dividend reduced to ب.د0.029 Dividend of ب.د0.029 is 66% lower than last year. Ex-date: 14th March 2024 Payment date: 31st March 2024 Dividend yield will be 3.3%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.8%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 35%. Cash payout ratio: 21%. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: ب.د0.083 (down from ب.د0.29 in FY 2022). Revenue: ب.د1.54b (down 16% from FY 2022). Net income: ب.د118.0m (down 72% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.6% (down from 23% in FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 37% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 30
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ب.د1.39, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 234% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ب.د1.76 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.012 (vs ب.د0.034 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: ب.د0.012 (down from ب.د0.034 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: ب.د400.0m (flat on 3Q 2022). Net income: ب.د17.3m (down 64% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.3% (down from 12% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 41% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Annonce • Oct 10
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) Appoints Khalild Al Rumaihi as Chairman Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding Company (Mumtalakat) has appointed Khalild Al Rumaihi as Chairman of Aluminium Bahrain (Alba). With his extensive industry knowledge and expertise, Al Rumaihi is well-equipped to steer Alba's continued growth and success to further solidify its position as an industry leader, it said. Presently, Al Rumaihi is the Executive Chairman of Amriya Group. Before his current role, he held the position of Chief Executive Officer at Mumtalakat, from September 2019 to April 2023. Al Rumaihi also served as the Chief Executive of Bahrain Economic Development Board (EDB) for five years. Prior to his tenure at the EDB, Al Rumaihi held the position of Managing Director at Investcorp and was a member of the Management Committee and Head of the Institutional Placement Team covering Investcorp's clients in the Arabian Gulf. Al Rumaihi holds a Master's degree in Public Policy specialising in Economic Development from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Science degree in Foreign Service from Georgetown University. Annonce • Sep 29
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Announces CFO Changes Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has approved the appointment of Ahmed Abdul Qader Ishaq as the Acting Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of the company, effective October 2. The current CFO, Bryan Harris, is stepping down on that day.During this meeting, the Board of Directors discussed and approved the minutes of the previous meeting that was held on August 9 as well as reviewed reports of the Executive and ESG Committee, Board Audit Committee and the Nomination, Remuneration and Corporate Governance Committee. Individual Directors' Complete Declaration and an update on the Independence of each Alba Board Director were also given during this meeting. Annonce • Aug 11
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Proposes Interim Cash Dividend, Payable on 31 August 2023 The Board of Directors of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. proposed to pay an interim cash dividend of Fils 13.28 per share (excluding the treasury shares) amounting to BD 18,801,617 to Alba's shareholders as of the Record date as: 17 August 2023. Ex-Dividend Date is 16 August 2023. Payment Date is 31 August 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from ب.د1.55b to ب.د1.58b. EPS estimate fell from ب.د0.145 to ب.د0.12 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 36% next year vs 38% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ب.د1.34. Share price was steady at ب.د1.10 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 33% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from ب.د1.65b to ب.د1.57b. EPS estimate also fell from ب.د0.24 per share to ب.د0.16 per share. Net income forecast to grow 6.7% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Consensus price target down from ب.د1.42 to ب.د1.38. Share price was steady at ب.د1.10 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.034 (vs ب.د0.10 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ب.د0.034 (down from ب.د0.10 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ب.د369.9m (down 19% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ب.د47.4m (down 68% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 13% (down from 32% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia are expected to grow by 7.1%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 46% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 26
Upcoming dividend of ب.د0.086 per share at 9.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 March 2023. Payment date: 20 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 40% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 9.5%. Within top quartile of Bahraini dividend payers (6.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.3%). Annonce • Feb 06
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Announces Board Changes Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Announced the candidates for its board of directors membership based on the nominations received: Ismail al sarraf as independent and non executive director holds executive master of business administration from university of hull United Kingdom with the experience as board member of Bahrain management society and former chairman of Arabian ORYX constructions and trading company; Nader Mahmood as independent and non executive director who holds bachelor in commerce from university of Bahrain; Osama al arrayed holds master of philosophy from University of Nottingham United Kingdom he has previously held several board memberships in Bahrain; Meshaal Nasser Hamad al thawadi as independent and non executive director holding Master of Science in charm Bournemouth university United Kingdom and masters of business administration from Arab academic of science and technology in Egypt he has been executive manager of Go contracting and a tutor at Saudi training institute; Hala Abdul Hamid mufeez as an independent non executive director holdings certified public accountant from state of Illinois and a Bachelor of Science in accounting from university of Bahrain, he has been a board member of banagas and chairperson of audit committee, board member of Tawsea and chairperson of audit committee also he has been a finance manager in tatweer petroleum; Sawson abul Hassan as an independent and non executive director holding master of business administration in finance from university of Bahrain, he has been an executive director of al bustani group, group finance advisor at Al hassanain BSC come aboard director of Bahrain chamber, independent director of benefit, independent director of GARMCO and previously held several board memberships in Bahrain; mutlaq al Morished has independent and non executive director holding master of business administration from Stanford University United Kingdom and a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from Princeton University USA, he has been CEO of Tasnee, board member of Tasnee, board member of color petrochemical and chemical association, board member of Citi group in Saudi Arabia, board member of GCC board director institute, board member of Saudi general authority of military industries, board member of TRONOX, board member of A. M. Bin Saedan real estate company call mom chairman of the board of national metal manufacturing and casting company; Tareq Wafa as independent and non executive director holding bachelor of commerce from Kuwait university, he has been chairman, CEO and founder of TRICOM group, vice chairman and managing partner of kW ventures come on chairman and co-founder of further communication and former board of directors of magnum holdings group; basem al Saie as independent and non executive director holding Bachelor of Science in mechanical engineering from Boston University us, board member of Bahrain Chamber of Commerce and industry, executive committee and board, director at kalaam telecom, managing director at polycon Bahrain, managing director and partner at installuX gulf and hell pray several board memberships in Bahrain; Mohsen Ali Abdullah Husain as independent and non executive director holding Bachelor of Science in accounting from university of Bahrain he has been former board member of GIG Bahrain; Ali fardan as an independent and non executive director holding international director program, INSEAD and a diploma in executive management from university of Bahrain, he has been deputy chairman and chairman of the executive committee at Bahrain bourse, member of the board and the executive committee of Bahrain clear, a member of Harvard Business Review Advisory Council, member of the board and the executive committee of Islamic international financial market and founder of National Bank of Kuwait, Bahrain; Rayan kazerooni as independent and non executive director holding master of business administration from university of Strathclyde better Kingdom; Darwish al mannai as independent and non executive director holding higher diploma in management from university of Salford United Kingdom he has been a chairman of the Advisory Board of al Nasim International School and chairman of the Bahrain industrial association; Mahmoud al habashi as an independent and non executive director holding Master of Science in international management from University of Liverpool United Kingdom he has been account management, MasterCard- Bahrain-never held a board membership and Mohammad Yousif as an independent and non executive director a PhD student in university of Bahrain and holding master in chemical engineering from university of Bahrain, he has been an instructor or teacher at university of Bahrain, department of chemical engineering and a former Alba employee. Annonce • Feb 05
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., Annual General Meeting, Feb 26, 2023 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C., Annual General Meeting, Feb 26, 2023, at 10:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Agenda: To review and approve the minutes of the previous ordinary general meeting held on 10 March 2022; to discuss and approve the report of the board of directors for the company's business/ activities for the year ended 31 December 2022; to listen to the external auditor's report for the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2022; to discuss and approve the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2022; and to approve the board's recommendation to allocate the net profit for the year ended 31 December 2022. Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: EPS: ب.د0.29 (down from ب.د0.32 in FY 2021). Revenue: ب.د1.84b (up 16% from FY 2021). Net income: ب.د416.2m (down 7.9% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 23% (down from 28% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia are expected to grow by 6.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 93% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 39% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Feb 03
Aluminium Bahrain Declares Dividend Declaration Payable on 20 March 2023 The Board of Directors of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) resolved during the Board meeting on 02 February 2023, to recommend the distribution of cash dividend for the year ended 31 December 2022 to the shareholders whose names are registered on the Company's register on the Record Date. This is subject to the approval of the Company's shareholders at the upcoming Annual General Meeting on 26 February 2023. The proposed distribution is as follows: Cash Dividend: 117.58% of share nominal value, equivalent to Fils 117.58 per share amounting to BD 166,306,000 (the proposed annual cash dividend includes the interim dividends of Fils 31.88 per share which was already distributed to the shareholders by 01 September 2022). Payment Date: 20 March 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from ب.د1.81b to ب.د1.76b. EPS estimate also fell from ب.د0.37 per share to ب.د0.31 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 25% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia . Consensus price target down from ب.د1.50 to ب.د1.38. Share price rose 7.0% to ب.د1.07 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ب.د0.034 (vs ب.د0.089 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: ب.د0.034 (down from ب.د0.089 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ب.د403.2m (up 3.7% from 3Q 2021). Net income: ب.د48.0m (down 62% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 12% (down from 32% in 3Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia are expected to grow by 6.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 110% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 9 non-independent directors. Independent Chairman Daij bin bin Daij Al Khalifa was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2014. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: ب.د520.4m (up 41% from 2Q 2021). Net income: ب.د181.9m (up 97% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 35% (up from 25% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 6.0% compared to a 170% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 24
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from ب.د1.99b to ب.د1.77b. EPS estimate fell from ب.د0.44 to ب.د0.35 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 11% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia . Consensus price target down from ب.د1.69 to ب.د1.63. Share price fell 5.4% to ب.د1.14 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: ب.د0.10 (up from ب.د0.037 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: ب.د454.9m (up 50% from 1Q 2021). Net income: ب.د146.8m (up 181% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 32% (up from 17% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 17%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 20%, compared to a 35% growth forecast for the industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 129% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 43% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 10
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to ب.د1.18, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 201% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ب.د1.33 per share. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to ب.د1.57 Up from ب.د1.34, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of ب.د1.39. Stock is up 137% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.47 for next year compared to ب.د0.32 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 9 non-independent directors. Independent Chairman Daij bin bin Daij Al Khalifa was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2014. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Price Target Changed • Apr 07
Price target increased to ب.د1.34 Up from ب.د1.21, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 14% below last closing price of ب.د1.55. Stock is up 195% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.47 for next year compared to ب.د0.32 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 07
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ب.د1.84b to ب.د2.11b. EPS estimate increased from ب.د0.35 to ب.د0.47 per share. Net income forecast to grow 48% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Consensus price target up from ب.د1.21 to ب.د1.34. Share price rose 5.4% to ب.د1.55 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 23
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to ب.د1.56, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 291% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ب.د1.16 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 07
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 32% share price gain to ب.د1.64, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Metals and Mining industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 302% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ب.د1.15 per share. Annonce • Feb 15
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Recommends Cash Dividends for the Year Ended December 31, 2021, Payable on March 20, 2022 The Board of Directors of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) resolved, at its meeting held on February 10, 2022, to recommend the distribution of dividend for the year ended December 31, 2021 to the shareholders whose names are registered on the Company's register on the Record Date. This is subject to the approval of the Company's shareholders on the upcoming Annual General Meeting on March 7, 2022. The proposed distribution is as follow: Cash Dividends: 79.71% of share nominal value, equivalent to Fils 79.71/USD 0.2119 per share, amounting to BD112,812,936/c. (the proposed annual cash dividend includes the interim dividends of Fils 26.57 per share which was already distributed to the shareholders by 23 November 2021). Payment date is March 20, 2022. Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: ب.د0.32 (up from ب.د0.007 in FY 2020). Revenue: ب.د1.58b (up 49% from FY 2020). Net income: ب.د451.9m (up ب.د442.1m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 28% (up from 0.9% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 17%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.2%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the mining industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 118% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 37% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Feb 11
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Proposes Final Dividend for the Year 2021 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. Board of Directors have proposed to pay a final dividend of Fils 53.14 per share (excluding the treasury shares) totalling BHD 75.2 million (USD 200 million) subject to the approvals of the Company's shareholders at the Annual General Meeting which will be held in March 2022. Price Target Changed • Feb 07
Price target increased to ب.د1.11 Up from ب.د1.00, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of ب.د1.00. Stock is up 100% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ب.د0.27 for next year compared to ب.د0.0069 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 03
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ب.د0.089 (vs ب.د0.008 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ب.د388.9m (up 48% from 3Q 2020). Net income: ب.د125.9m (up ب.د137.6m from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 32% (up from net loss in 3Q 2020). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 73% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 03
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ب.د0.065 (vs ب.د0.012 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ب.د370.0m (up 52% from 2Q 2020). Net income: ب.د92.6m (up ب.د109.0m from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 25% (up from net loss in 2Q 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year. Price Target Changed • Jul 09
Price target increased to ب.د0.92 Up from ب.د0.84, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 40% above last closing price of ب.د0.65. Stock is up 98% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Jun 26
Price target increased to ب.د0.84 Up from ب.د0.78, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 32% above last closing price of ب.د0.64. Stock is up 93% over the past year. 
