Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 21
Chairman & MD recently bought US$29m worth of stock On the 18th of March, Adam Portnoy bought around 22m shares on-market at roughly US$1.31 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Adam's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Board Change • Mar 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. MD, Secretary & Director Jennifer Clark was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to US$1.50 Down from US$2.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 80% above last closing price of US$0.83. Stock is down 79% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$1.06 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$0.95 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 08
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering AlerisLife no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of US$1.16m in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of US$6.45m in 2024. Reported Earnings • Nov 04
Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2022 results: US$0.27 loss per share (improved from US$0.32 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$182.7m (up 326% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: US$8.51m (loss narrowed 17% from 3Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 33% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Healthcare industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 89% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 44% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Aug 09
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering AlerisLife no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of US$1.16m in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of US$1.66m in 2024. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: US$0.28 loss per share (up from US$0.39 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$39.7m (down 15% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: US$8.81m (loss narrowed 28% from 2Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 22%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 389%, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 115% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 36% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 12
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 expected loss increased from -US$0.61 to -US$0.80 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$741.1m. Healthcare industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 6.6% next year. Consensus price target down from US$5.25 to US$1.50. Share price fell 19% to US$1.25 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: US$0.31 loss per share (down from US$0.10 profit in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$173.2m (up 243% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: US$9.73m (down 394% from profit in 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 59%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 902%, compared to a 9.4% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 124% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 36% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 27
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2024 The 2 analysts covering AlerisLife previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 57% per year to 2023. The company is expected to make a profit of US$7.23m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 80% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 144% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from US$792.9m to US$741.8m. Losses expected to increase from US$0.25 per share to US$0.61. Healthcare industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 3.5% next year. Consensus price target of US$5.25 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.3% to US$2.17 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 06
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2024 The 2 analysts covering AlerisLife previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 57% per year to 2023. The company is expected to make a profit of US$7.23m in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 80% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 09
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$772.7m to US$792.9m. Forecast EPS reduced from -US$0.01 to -US$0.25 per share. Healthcare industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 0.8% next year. Consensus price target down from US$5.50 to US$5.25. Share price rose 4.0% to US$2.57 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 05
Insider recently bought US$101k worth of stock On the 1st of March, Lauren Cody bought around 40k shares on-market at roughly US$2.52 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Price Target Changed • Feb 25
Price target decreased to US$5.50 Down from US$6.25, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 111% above last closing price of US$2.61. Stock is down 61% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$0.015 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$0.95 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: US$0.95 loss per share (down from US$0.24 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: US$180.1m (down 19% from FY 2020). Net loss: US$29.9m (loss widened 294% from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 28%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 329%, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 119% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 05
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.32 loss per share (vs US$0.12 profit in 3Q 2020) The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved revenues, although earnings and control over costs were weaker. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$225.8m (up 311% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: US$10.2m (down 375% from profit in 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 12
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from US$911.4m to US$960.0m. Forecast EPS reduced from -US$0.18 to -US$0.59 per share. Healthcare industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target down from US$7.50 to US$6.25. Share price fell 18% to US$4.28 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 09
Price target decreased to US$6.75 Down from US$7.75, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 57% above last closing price of US$4.30. Stock is down 11% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.39 loss per share (vs US$0.095 profit in 2Q 2020) The company reported a decent second quarter result with improved revenues, although earnings and control over costs were weaker. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$258.6m (up 374% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: US$12.3m (down US$15.3m from profit in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 87% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Aug 06
Forecast breakeven pushed back to 2022 The 2 analysts covering Five Star Senior Living previously expected the company to break even in 2021. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 26% to 2021. The company is expected to make a profit of US$7.69m in 2022. Average annual earnings growth of 146% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 19% share price decline to US$4.63, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 11.3x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Healthcare industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 59% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 13
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to US$5.97, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Healthcare industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 50% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.10 (vs US$0.55 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$276.9m (up 366% from 1Q 2020). Net income: US$3.32m (up US$20.5m from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 1.2% (up from net loss in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 64% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 04
New 90-day low: US$6.19 The company is down 8.0% from its price of US$6.74 on 03 December 2020. The American market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Healthcare industry, which is flat over the same period. Executive Departure • Mar 02
Chief Accounting Officer has left the company On the 23rd of February, Ellen Snow's tenure as Chief Accounting Officer ended after 1.5 years in the role. As of December 2020, Ellen personally held only 2.50k shares (US$17k worth at the time). Ellen is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2020 earnings released: US$0.24 loss per share (vs US$3.99 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$1.17b (up 6.0% from FY 2019). Net loss: US$7.59m (loss narrowed 62% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 25
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 0.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 4.0%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.8%, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Healthcare industry in the US. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 06
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to US$8.66, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 38.3x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 32x. This compares to an average P/E of 29x in the Healthcare industry in the US. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 36%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 06
New 90-day high: US$8.66 The company is up 91% from its price of US$4.54 on 06 November 2020. The American market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Healthcare industry, which is up 2.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 11
New 90-day high: US$7.44 The company is up 42% from its price of US$5.24 on 11 September 2020. The American market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Healthcare industry, which is up 17% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 05
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to US$7.16, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 31.7x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 27x. This compares to an average P/E of 23x in the Healthcare industry in the US. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 52%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 28
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to US$6.10, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 27x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 23.1x. This compares to an average P/E of 24x in the Healthcare industry in the US. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 62%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 25
New 90-day high: US$5.68 The company is up 9.0% from its price of US$5.19 on 26 August 2020. The American market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Healthcare industry, which is also up 9.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS US$0.12 The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$295.3m (up 7.7% from 3Q 2019). Net income: US$3.72m (up US$10.8m from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 1.3% (up from net loss in 3Q 2019). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 03
New 90-day low: US$4.49 The company is down 4.0% from its price of US$4.66 on 04 August 2020. The American market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Healthcare industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. 