M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Informe acción NYSE:MDC

Capitalización de mercado: US$4.7b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

M.D.C. Holdings Crecimiento futuro

Future controles de criterios 1/6

Se prevé un crecimiento anual de los beneficios y los ingresos de M.D.C. Holdings de 8% y 6.6% por año respectivamente. Se prevé que el BPA crezca en un 7.2% al año. Se espera que la rentabilidad financiera sea de 13% en 3 años.

Información clave

8.0%

Tasa de crecimiento de los beneficios

7.16%

Tasa de crecimiento del BPA

Crecimiento de los beneficios de Consumer Durables7.5%
Tasa de crecimiento de los ingresos6.6%
Rentabilidad financiera futura13.04%
Cobertura de analistas

Low

Última actualización19 Apr 2024

Actualizaciones recientes sobre el crecimiento futuro

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jan 18

M.D.C. Sells To Sekisui At An Attractive Price; Further Upside Is Unlikely

Summary M.D.C. Holdings shares rallied 18% after the acquisition announcement by Sekisui, nearing the purchase price. Sekisui aims to achieve its goal of building 10,000 homes in the US by 2025 with the acquisition of MDC. It is unlikely for the deal to be blocked due to low market share and no antitrust or foreign investment concerns. At 12x earnings and 1.4x book value, no other bidders are likely to emerge. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Jan 03

Earnings Working Against M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:MDC) Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.4x M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) may be sending bullish signals at...
Artículo de análisis • Dec 18

We Think M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Artículo de análisis • Nov 18

Returns On Capital At M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Have Hit The Brakes

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'll...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 17

M.D.C. Holdings: Navigating Through A Tough Housing Market

Summary Home builder M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. stock has risen over 35% so far in 2023 despite challenges in the housing sector. Earnings and revenues are projected to fall significantly in FY2023, and there is or has been some substantial insider selling in the stock this year. However, the company has a strong balance sheet and also pays a five percent dividend yield. Buy, Sell, or Hold?  An analysis of M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Nov 03

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC)?

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over...
Artículo de análisis • Sep 22

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:MDC) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 24% Below Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for M.D.C. Holdings is US$31.53 based on Dividend Discount Model M.D.C. Holdings...
Seeking Alpha • Sep 06

M.D.C. Holdings: Awaiting Q3 Results To Validate If Earnings Normalization Phase Has Started

Summary I maintain a hold rating for MDC as I await 3Q23 results to confirm the start of the earnings normalization phase. 2Q23 earnings exceeded expectations, with a 54% growth in orders and improved pricing trends. It is important to remember that further increases in mortgage rates will certainly impact the earnings trajectory of the business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Sep 05

We Think M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Artículo de análisis • Aug 01

Upgrade: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Increase To Their M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) Forecasts

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...
Artículo de análisis • Jul 28

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC)?

While M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the NYSE...
Artículo de análisis • Jul 13

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 09

M.D.C. Holdings: Not The Best Financially But Has A Margin Of Safety

Summary MDC is a cyclical company as its performance is tied to US Housing Starts, where there was no growth in the long-term annual average over the past 70 years. MDC had hardly any revenue growth over the past 18 years and should be valued based on its cyclical Earnings Power Value. A valuation of MDC on such a basis showed that there are margins of safety. But I have concerns about MDC financial strengths. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Jun 05

Does M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Seeking Alpha • May 26

M.D.C. Holdings: Trends Are Turning, But Better To Wait And See

Summary Despite initial concerns, M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. experienced a smaller drop in orders than anticipated, with a notable improvement in market conditions during Q1 2023. Cancellation rates also showed significant improvement. Moving forward, investors should monitor M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.'s efforts to reduce cycle times, as well as the potential for increased gross margins. Given the need for more information to confirm the trend aligns with assumptions, a hold rating is recommended for M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. stock until sufficient data becomes available. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Apr 21

M.D.C. Holdings' (NYSE:MDC) Dividend Will Be $0.50

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.50 per share on the 24th of May...
Artículo de análisis • Apr 14

When Should You Buy M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC)?

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over...
Artículo de análisis • Mar 30

Returns on Capital Paint A Bright Future For M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Artículo de análisis • Mar 07

Does M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 08

M.D.C. Holdings: Near-Term Concerns May Weigh On Share Price Performance

Summary Guidance for 1Q23 includes closings of 1,500 to 1,600 and ASPs of $550 to $560K with a gross margin of 18-19%. Orders dropped in 4Q22, but there was a return to order in January and an improvement is expected in 1Q23. I have near-term concerns about performance due to a weak sales forecast, declining margins, and uncertain demand and interest rate trends. Description I think M.D.C. Holdings (MDC) is entering the very early stage of an up-cycle, which I believe investors seem to think of as well given the share price reaction. However, I have my concerns on the near-term performance of MDC, especially given a weak order guide, declining gross margins, uncertain interest rate environment, and yet-to-be confirmed demand trends. On this backdrop, valuation has already increased to price in an up-cycle movement, which I think an investment today carries much more risk than pre-earnings. In my opinion, if this were to be a true up-cycle, there would be opportunities to make money out of it, there is no need to take additional risk to get exposure today. As such, my recommendation would be to wait out a couple of quarters, at least until we see a more stabilize demand trend. 4Q22 Review Several key points emerged during the earnings call. To begin, at the mid-point, MDC expects a decline in closings of 31% y/y and a decline in gross margins to 18.5% for 1Q23. With regards to demand trends, demand patterns improved in January as a result of MDC's increased market aggression following the completion of its higher-margin backlog. In addition, the majority of the company's 4Q gross orders (74%) were spec, as such MDC plans to keep expanding its spec construction to better meet the needs of modern buyers. On the pricing side of things, discounts for 4Q orders rose by about 4ppts q/q to around 12%, while order ASPs fell by about 6% q/q and 1% y/y on a gross order basis. If we extrapolate these results literally into FY23/24, we could very well see a downward trend in earnings. Order book Orders dropped 94% in 4Q22 due to a decrease in absorption, while average community size increased 13%. An important metric to keep an eye on is the 4Q22 cancellation rate, which hit 87%, up from 81% in 3Q22 and 20% in 4Q21. To combat this, MDC has responded by increasing the amount of the deposit it requires from customers interested in purchasing a built-to-order home. On the bright side, management noted a return to order in January, and this trend is only expected to further improve in 1Q23. This is likely because MDC has become more competitive in the market due to the anticipated Spring selling season. Additionally, as 74% of its 4th quarter orders were for spec construction, management expects to increase their spec constructions to better cater to current buyer preferences. Impairments The $93 million recorded in 4Q22 land impairments is the highest quarterly amount recorded since Q4 of 2008, and is a significant increase from the $28 million recorded in 3Q22. Impairments affected ten communities in MDC's West region and six communities in the Mountain region, most of which were already open for sales with a few that MDC had planned openings in 1Q23. Although I don't find this particularly concerning at the moment, I do think it's something we should keep an eye on in the future in case it's a precursor to a more serious threat. Guidance
Seeking Alpha • Jan 30

M.D.C. Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

M.D.C. (NYSE:MDC) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Tuesday, January 31, before market open. The consensus EPS estimate is $1.52 and the consensus revenue estimate is $1.31B (-8.4% Y/Y). Over the last 1 year, MDC has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 75% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 5 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 2 downward.
Artículo de análisis • Jan 28

M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.50

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) will pay a dividend of $0.50 on the 22nd of February. The dividend yield will be...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 24

M.D.C. Holdings declares $0.50 dividend

M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 5.45% Payable Feb. 22; for shareholders of record Feb. 8; ex-div Feb. 7. See MDC Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Artículo de análisis • Jan 13

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) Shares Could Be 24% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights M.D.C. Holdings' estimated fair value is US$28.8 based on Dividend Discount Model Current share price of...
Artículo de análisis • Dec 29

Is M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) Potentially Undervalued?

While M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:MDC ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a double-digit...
Artículo de análisis • Dec 13

Returns On Capital Are A Standout For M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC)

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...

Previsiones de crecimiento de beneficios e ingresos

NYSE:MDC - Estimaciones futuras de los analistas y datos financieros pasados (USD Millions)
FechaIngresosBeneficiosFlujo de caja libreFlujo de caja operativoNúm. de analistas medio
12/31/20265,6725022692941
12/31/20255,3044762222471
12/31/20244,8854232893143
12/31/20234,643399518562N/A
9/30/20234,8163591,1621,185N/A
6/30/20235,1473961,3611,387N/A
3/31/20235,4984921,1861,214N/A
12/31/20225,718559877906N/A
9/30/20225,664642194222N/A
6/30/20225,523643-79-49N/A
3/31/20225,437608-63-32N/A
12/31/20215,255571-238-208N/A
9/30/20215,014555-168-139N/A
6/30/20214,750509-94-67N/A
3/31/20214,269439-70-44N/A
12/31/20203,901365-50-23N/A
9/30/20203,78131195120N/A
6/30/20203,5162633458N/A
3/31/20203,348233-59-34N/A
12/31/20193,2932373358N/A
9/30/20193,071199-918N/A
6/30/20193,08420276104N/A
3/31/20193,10321181108N/A
12/31/20183,065210-35-8N/A
9/30/20182,907180-83-63N/A
6/30/20182,726187-122-108N/A
3/31/20182,623158-93-85N/A
12/31/20172,5781416871N/A
9/30/20172,587157N/A199N/A
6/30/20172,580122N/A260N/A
3/31/20172,501115N/A225N/A
12/31/20162,327103N/A116N/A
9/30/20162,17685N/A18N/A
6/30/20162,04874N/A-66N/A
3/31/20161,93267N/A-30N/A
12/31/20151,90966N/A0N/A
9/30/20151,83658N/A-17N/A
6/30/20151,78658N/A-23N/A
3/31/20151,75560N/A-34N/A
12/31/20141,69863N/A-164N/A
9/30/20141,66177N/A-217N/A
6/30/20141,69197N/A-220N/A
3/31/20141,664299N/A-328N/A
12/31/20131,680309N/A-270N/A
9/30/20131,614310N/A-284N/A
6/30/20131,500294N/A-239N/A

Previsiones de crecimiento futuro de los analistas

Ingresos vs. Tasa de ahorro: El pronóstico de crecimiento de los beneficios (8% al año) de MDC es superior a la tasa de ahorro (2.3%).

Beneficios vs. Mercado: Se prevé que los beneficios (8% al año) de MDC crezcan menos que el mercado US (16.4% al año).

Beneficios de alto crecimiento: Se prevé que los beneficios de MDC crezcan, pero no significativamente.

Ingresos vs. Mercado: Se prevé que los ingresos (6.6% al año) de MDC crezcan más despacio que el mercado de US (11.4% al año).

Ingresos de alto crecimiento: Se prevé que los ingresos 6.6% al año) de MDC crezcan más despacio que 20% al año.

Previsiones de crecimiento de los beneficios por acción

Rentabilidad financiera futura

ROE futura: Se prevé que la rentabilidad financiera de MDC sea baja dentro de 3 años (13%).

Descubre empresas en crecimiento

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Análisis de la empresa y estado de los datos financieros

DatosÚltima actualización (huso horario UTC)
Análisis de la empresa2024/04/19 13:41
Precio de las acciones al final del día2024/04/19 00:00
Beneficios2023/12/31
Ingresos anuales2023/12/31

Fuentes de datos

Los datos utilizados en nuestro análisis de empresas proceden de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Los siguientes datos se utilizan en nuestro modelo de análisis para generar este informe. Los datos están normalizados, lo que puede introducir un retraso desde que la fuente está disponible.

PaqueteDatosMarco temporalEjemplo Fuente EE.UU. *
Finanzas de la empresa10 años
  • Cuenta de resultados
  • Estado de tesorería
  • Balance
Estimaciones del consenso de analistas+3 años
  • Previsiones financieras
  • Objetivos de precios de los analistas
Precios de mercado30 años
  • Precios de las acciones
  • Dividendos, escisiones y acciones
Propiedad10 años
  • Accionistas principales
  • Información privilegiada
Gestión10 años
  • Equipo directivo
  • Consejo de Administración
Principales avances10 años
  • Anuncios de empresas

* Ejemplo para valores de EE.UU., para no EE.UU. se utilizan formularios y fuentes normativas equivalentes.

A menos que se especifique lo contrario, todos los datos financieros se basan en un periodo anual, pero se actualizan trimestralmente. Esto se conoce como datos de los últimos doce meses (TTM) o de los últimos doce meses (LTM). Más información.

Modelo de análisis y copo de nieve

Los detalles del modelo de análisis utilizado para generar este informe están disponibles en nuestra página de Github, también tenemos guías sobre cómo utilizar nuestros informes y tutoriales en Youtube.

Conozca al equipo de talla mundial que diseñó y construyó el modelo de análisis Simply Wall St.

Métricas industriales y sectoriales

Simply Wall St calcula cada 6 horas nuestras métricas sectoriales y de sección. Los detalles de nuestro proceso están disponibles en Github.

Fuentes analistas

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. está cubierta por 18 analistas. 3 de esos analistas presentaron las estimaciones de ingresos o ganancias utilizadas como datos para nuestro informe. Las estimaciones de los analistas se actualizan a lo largo del día.

AnalistaInstitución
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
John LovalloBofA Global Research
Willy RandowCitigroup Inc