New Risk • May 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 7.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 23% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (116% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.1% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • May 11
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.044 (vs ฿0.038 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: ฿0.044 (up from ฿0.038 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: ฿9.62b (flat on 1Q 2025). Net income: ฿832.4m (up 15% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 8.7% (up from 7.5% in 1Q 2025). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 43% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 22
Now 25% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 15% to ฿0.85. The fair value is estimated to be ฿0.68, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 53%. Declared Dividend • Mar 02
Dividend of ฿0.03 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.03. Ex-date: 11th March 2026 Payment date: 15th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (27% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.6% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Earnings per share has grown by 5.9% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.11 (vs ฿0.076 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.11 (up from ฿0.076 in FY 2024). Revenue: ฿34.6b (down 3.2% from FY 2024). Net income: ฿2.00b (up 39% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.8% (up from 4.0% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 23% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.015 (vs ฿0.021 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.015 (up from ฿0.021 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: ฿8.11b (down 11% from 3Q 2024). Net income: ฿281.0m (up ฿673.6m from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.5% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 27% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Sep 10
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 8.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 6.7% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.2% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.8% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 18
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 10% to ฿0.89. The fair value is estimated to be ฿0.74, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 60%. Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.03 (vs ฿0.032 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.03 (down from ฿0.032 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: ฿8.71b (flat on 2Q 2024). Net income: ฿561.2m (down 7.4% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.4% (down from 6.9% in 2Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 20% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 29
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 2.1% to ฿0.92. The fair value is estimated to be ฿0.76, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 53%. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 11
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 8.2% to ฿0.90. The fair value is estimated to be ฿0.74, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 53%. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.038 (vs ฿0.039 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.038 (down from ฿0.039 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: ฿9.59b (up 6.0% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ฿723.2m (down 2.5% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 8.2% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Mar 01
Final dividend reduced to ฿0.03 Dividend of ฿0.03 is 57% lower than last year. Ex-date: 12th March 2025 Payment date: 16th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (153% earnings payout ratio) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 16% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 70% to bring the payout ratio under control. However, EPS has remained steady over the last 5 years so the company would need to improve on their historical growth rates. Anuncio • Feb 28
TPI Polene Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 24, 2025 TPI Polene Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 24, 2025, at 15:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: at the conference room on the 9th floor of tpi, tower, 26/56 chan tat mai road, thungmahamek, sathorn, bangkok Thailand Anuncio • Feb 27
TPI Polene Public Company Limited Declares Dividend for Year Ended December 31, 2024, Payable on 16 May 2025 TPI Polene Public Company Limited proposed dividend of THB 0.03 per share for year ended December 31, 2024, payable on 16 May 2025; Record date: 13 March 2025; Ex-dividend date: 12 March 2025. To approve the dividend payment at the 2025 Annual General Shareholders' Meeting to be held on April 25, 2025. Previously, the Company has already paid interim dividend from operating results up to the second quarter ended June 30, 2024 at THB 0.02 per share to shareholders, totaling THB 378,704,700. Therefore, there is remaining dividend of THB 0.03 per share to be paid to shareholders, totaling THB 568,057,050, from the Company's unappropriated retained earnings as at December 31, 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.076 (vs ฿0.17 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.076 (down from ฿0.17 in FY 2023). Revenue: ฿35.8b (down 16% from FY 2023). Net income: ฿1.44b (down 55% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 7.5% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 43% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: ฿0.021 loss per share (vs ฿0.065 profit in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: ฿0.021 loss per share (down from ฿0.065 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ฿9.15b (down 16% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: ฿392.5m (down 132% from profit in 3Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Nov 17
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 3.1% Last year net profit margin: 8.6% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.6x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 153% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.1% net profit margin). Declared Dividend • Aug 31
First half dividend reduced to ฿0.02 Dividend of ฿0.02 is 33% lower than last year. Ex-date: 11th September 2024 Payment date: 24th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 7.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (48% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 21% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 13% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Anuncio • Aug 29
TPI Polene Public Company Limited Announces Interim Dividend for the Six-Months Period Ended June 30, 2024, Payable on September 24, 2024 TPI Polene Public Company Limited announced interim dividend of THB 0.02 per share for the six-months period ended June 30, 2024. Date of Board resolution is August 29, 2024; Record date for the right to receive dividends September 12, 2024; Ex-dividend date is September 11, 2024; Payment date is September 24, 2024. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.032 (vs ฿0.062 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.032 (down from ฿0.062 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ฿8.74b (down 23% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ฿606.4m (down 48% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.9% (down from 10% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Basic Materials industry in Asia are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year. Reported Earnings • May 11
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.039 (vs ฿0.034 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.039 (up from ฿0.034 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ฿9.05b (down 20% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ฿742.1m (up 15% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.2% (up from 5.7% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.1% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Anuncio • Apr 27
TPI Polene Public Company Limited Approves Dividend for the Year 2023, Payable on May 16, 2024 TPI Polene Public Company Limited announced that at its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders held on April 26, 2024, resolved to approve the dividend payment for the year 2023 at THB 0.10 per share, totaling THB 1,893,523,500. previously, the company has already paid interim dividend from operating results up to the second quarter ended June 30, 2023 at THB 0.03 per share to shareholders, totaling THB 568,057,050. Therefore, there is remaining dividend of THB 0.07 per share to be paid to shareholders, totaling THB 1,325,466,450, from the company's unappropriated retained earnings as at December 31, 2023. The determination of list of shareholders for the right to receive dividend payment is scheduled on March 14, 2024 (the record date) and the dividend payment is scheduled on May 16, 2024. New Risk • Mar 28
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (14% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (313% cash payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.5% net profit margin). Upcoming Dividend • Mar 06
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.07 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 March 2024. Payment date: 16 May 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 50% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 7.0%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.3%). Declared Dividend • Mar 02
Final dividend of ฿0.07 announced Dividend of ฿0.07 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 13th March 2024 Payment date: 16th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 7.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (50% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (313% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 21% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next 2 years, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Anuncio • Mar 02
TPI Polene Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 26, 2024 TPI Polene Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 26, 2024, at 15:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: the conference room on the 9th floor, 26/56 Chan Tat Mai Road,Thungmahamek, Sathorn Bangkok Thailand Agenda: To consider and approve the Minutes of the 2023 Annual General Shareholders Meeting; to acknowledge the 2023 operating report; to have the Audit Committee report on the 2023 operating results; to consider and approve the Balance Sheets and Profit and Loss Statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023; and to consider other matters. Anuncio • Mar 01
TPI Polene Public Company Limited Proposes Dividend for the Year 2023, Payable on May 16, 2024 The board of directors of TPI Polene Public Company Limited at its meeting held on February 29, 2024, proposed at the 2024 AGM to be held on April 26, 2024, to approve the dividend payment for the year 2023 at THB 0.10 per share, totaling THB 1,893,523,500. previously, the company has already paid interim dividend from operating results up to the second quarter ended June 30, 2023 at THB 0.03 per share to shareholders, totaling THB 568,057,050. Therefore, there is remaining dividend of THB 0.07 per share to be paid to shareholders, totaling THB 1,325,466,450, from the company's unappropriated retained earnings as at December 31, 2023. The determination of list of shareholders for the right to receive dividend payment is scheduled on March 14, 2024 (the record date) and the dividend payment is scheduled on May 16, 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.17 (down from ฿0.37 in FY 2022). Revenue: ฿42.8b (down 11% from FY 2022). Net income: ฿3.22b (down 54% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 15% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 19
Now 21% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at ฿1.40. The fair value is estimated to be ฿1.16, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 28%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 13% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.065 (vs ฿0.11 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.065 (down from ฿0.11 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: ฿10.8b (down 14% from 3Q 2022). Net income: ฿1.24b (down 39% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 11% (down from 16% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 9.3% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buying Opportunity • Nov 07
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 4.1%. The fair value is estimated to be ฿1.76, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 41%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 1.8% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 27% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 06
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.03 per share at 6.4% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 September 2023. Payment date: 29 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 6.4%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.6%). Anuncio • Sep 01
TPI Polene Public Company Limited Announces Interim Dividend for the Six-Month Period Ended June 30, 2023, Payable on 29 September 2023 TPI Polene Public Company Limited announced interim dividend of cash dividend payment of THB 0.03 per share for the six-month period ended June 30, 2023. Record date for the right to receive dividends 14 September 2023; Ex-dividend date 13 September 2023; Payment date 29 September 2023. New Risk • Aug 13
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 10% Last year net profit margin: 16% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.9% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (10% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.062 (vs ฿0.13 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.062 (down from ฿0.13 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ฿11.4b (down 8.6% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ฿1.17b (down 52% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 10% (down from 19% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.034 (vs ฿0.095 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.034 (down from ฿0.095 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ฿11.3b (down 9.3% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ฿645.6m (down 64% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.7% (down from 14% in 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from ฿49.1b to ฿47.8b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.27 per share to ฿0.22 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 40% next year vs 7.0% growth forecast for Basic Materials industry in Thailand . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿2.37. Share price was steady at ฿1.51 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 01
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.07 per share at 5.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 March 2023. Payment date: 18 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% and the cash payout ratio is 75%. Trailing yield: 5.3%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.6%). In line with average of industry peers (5.0%). Reported Earnings • Feb 18
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.37 (up from ฿0.30 in FY 2021). Revenue: ฿48.1b (up 24% from FY 2021). Net income: ฿7.01b (up 24% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 15% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 7.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 62% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 30
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.03 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 07 December 2022. Payment date: 22 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.6%). In line with average of industry peers (4.9%). Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.11 (vs ฿0.063 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.11 (up from ฿0.063 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ฿12.5b (up 39% from 3Q 2021). Net income: ฿2.03b (up 68% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 13% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 150% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ฿48.8b to ฿49.3b. EPS estimate increased from ฿0.16 to ฿0.40 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 13% next year vs 0.5% decline forecast for Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Consensus price target of ฿2.45 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿1.76 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Sep 29
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 7.7%. The fair value is estimated to be ฿2.09, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 64%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.2% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 44% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 05
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ฿36.8b to ฿48.8b. EPS estimate unchanged from ฿0.16 at last update. Basic Materials industry in Thailand expected to see average net income decline 0.3% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.45 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿1.71 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.13 (vs ฿0.094 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.13 (up from ฿0.094 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: ฿12.5b (up 21% from 2Q 2021). Net income: ฿2.43b (up 35% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 19% (up from 17% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 18% compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 64% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.095 (up from ฿0.061 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: ฿12.4b (up 38% from 1Q 2021). Net income: ฿1.80b (up 55% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 14% (up from 13% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 10.0%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 13% compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 63% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Mar 28
Price target increased to ฿2.45 Up from ฿2.28, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 49% above last closing price of ฿1.64. Stock is down 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.16 for next year compared to ฿0.30 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 02
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.06 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 March 2022. Payment date: 17 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.2%). Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: ฿38.9b (up 14% from FY 2020). Net income: ฿5.67b (up 279% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 15% (up from 4.4% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 5.5% compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 57% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.063 (vs ฿0.035 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿9.01b (up 7.4% from 3Q 2020). Net income: ฿1.21b (up 82% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 7.9% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 64% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 05
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.03 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 October 2021. Payment date: 28 October 2021. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (4.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.5%). Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.094 (vs ฿0.035 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿10.3b (up 29% from 2Q 2020). Net income: ฿1.79b (up 170% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 17% (up from 8.3% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 74% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.061 (vs ฿0.021 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a decent first quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿9.02b (down 2.2% from 1Q 2020). Net income: ฿1.16b (up 189% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 13% (up from 4.4% in 1Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 84% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 09
Consensus EPS estimates increase to ฿0.18 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from ฿35.0b to ฿37.0b. EPS estimate increased from ฿0.15 to ฿0.18 per share. Net income forecast to grow 89% next year vs 5.8% growth forecast for Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿1.52 to ฿1.75. Share price rose 5.4% to ฿1.95 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 03
Upcoming Dividend of ฿0.03 Per Share Will be paid on the 10th of May to those who are registered shareholders by the 10th of March. The trailing yield of 3.6% is below the top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.8%), and is lower than industry peers (4.2%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 01
Analysts increase EPS estimates to ฿0.15 The 2021 consensus revenue estimate increased from ฿34.5b to ฿35.0b. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from ฿0.12 to ฿0.15 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 89% next year compared to 5.8% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. The consensus price target increased from ฿1.62 to ฿1.75. Share price stayed mostly flat at ฿1.67 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 24
Price target raised to ฿1.75 Up from ฿1.62, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is close to the current share price of ฿1.70. As of last close, the stock is up 36% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS ฿0.079 (vs ฿0.073 in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: ฿34.3b (down 7.5% from FY 2019). Net income: ฿1.50b (up 7.5% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 4.4% (up from 3.8% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 94% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 24
Revenue misses expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 0.8%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 2.0%, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 30
New 90-day high: ฿1.84 The company is up 37% from its price of ฿1.34 on 01 October 2020. The Thai market is up 19% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Basic Materials industry, which is up 18% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 15
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to ฿1.80, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 17.2x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 14.8x. This compares to an average P/E of 13x in the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 5.2%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 14
New 90-day high: ฿1.69 The company is up 34% from its price of ฿1.26 on 15 September 2020. The Thai market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Basic Materials industry, which is up 12% over the same period. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 17
Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 17%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 5.1% compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Basic Materials industry in Thailand. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 17
New 90-day high: ฿1.46 The company is up 16% from its price of ฿1.26 on 19 August 2020. The Thai market is up 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Basic Materials industry, which is down 5.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS ฿0.035 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: ฿8.39b (down 7.0% from 3Q 2019). Net income: ฿665.2m (up 71% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 7.9% (up from 4.3% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 103% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 22
New 90-day high: ฿1.42 The company is up 14% from its price of ฿1.25 on 24 July 2020. The Thai market is down 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Basic Materials industry, which is down 14% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 29
New 90-day high: ฿1.34 The company is up 13% from its price of ฿1.19 on 01 July 2020. The Thai market is down 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Basic Materials industry, which is down 12% over the same period.