Top 5 US Stocks for an Aging Population

Top 5 US Stocks for an Aging Population

UPDATED Sep 20, 2023

  • The world’s population has been growing rapidly for decades and we’re predicted to surpass 8 Billion people by the end of 2023, but this figure fails to paint the full picture of what our population will look like.
  • Birth rates across much of the world are falling and the consequences of that are pretty alarming. Japan, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea are some of the 23 countries that are expected to have their populations halved by 2100. A falling birth rate compounded by the effects of modern medicine keeping people healthier for longer has meant that the world is in a unique position. Our population is getting older.
  • The ways in which we will adapt are yet to be seen, but an aging population does not spell disaster. In fact, there are some industries that are set to benefit from us getting older. Here are some of our suggestions to answer the question in the mind of investors: what are the best stocks to invest in for an aging population?

5 companies

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a diversified health care company in the United States.

Why UNH?

Higher expenditure on healthcare in elderly populations.

  • A recent survey by UnitedHealth Group has shown that nearly 70% of Americans ages 62 and older said physical health is most important to them as they age. While most are feeling good and being proactive to maintain or improve their health, nearly all are worried about ending up sick or hospitalized. Given UnitedHealth Group provides care plans and services specifically for preventative care and specialized services for older individuals, the company should experience continued top-line growth owing to the expected increase in healthcare services required to support an aging population. An aging population may impact medical cost ratio, but bottom-line growth should be ensured if the company monitors cost drivers closely and maintains an appropriate premium pricing model.

Rewards

  • Trading at 38.9% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 10.25% per year

  • Earnings grew by 15.6% over the past year

Risks

  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

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Ventas Inc., an S&P 500 company, operates at the intersection of two large and dynamic industries – healthcare and real estate.

Why VTR?

Greater demand expected for senior housing as our population ages.

  • Ventas’ senior housing portfolio is so integral to their business, and with the senior demographic set to expand, there’ll be a rise in demand for Senior Housing. Simply put, if there are more seniors in a given population, then more senior communities are required to support them. Given that Ventas predicts a 22.7% growth in the U.S. population over the age of 80 over the next 5 years, Ventas’ senior housing portfolio should expect to see high demand driving solid yield, which will flow through to shareholders in the form of consistent dividends. In the next few years, analysts expect that the increasing addressable in the senior sector market will bolster top line growth, the effects of which will be seen by the market on its income statement.

Rewards

  • Trading at 35.4% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 25.46% per year

  • Earnings grew by 378.3% over the past year

Risks

  • Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

  • Large one-off items impacting financial results

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Carnival Corporation & plc engages in the provision of leisure travel services.

Why CCL?

The largest demographic for cruise ship passengers is on the rise.

  • The last two years have been disappointing for the cruise industry as they’ve faced some extreme difficulties during the pandemic. The horizon seems much brighter for them on the other hand and an aging population will only help further. As the population aged over 50 grows, so too does the largest demographic of cruise ship passengers. Market data from Cruise Lines Association International shows that passengers over the age of 50 account for 50% of all cruise passengers. Demand for cruises rise, passengers with greater disposable income should lead to growth in revenue PCD growth as they have the means to spend more on onboard services.

Rewards

  • Trading at 5.8% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 79.64% per year

Risks

No risks detected for CCL from our risks checks.

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THOR Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells recreational vehicles (RVs), and related parts and accessories in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

Why THO?

RV/Campervan travel remains popular among retirees.

  • Older people - specifically those in retirement - generally have more wealth and more time than any other demographic. Given that holidaying is a popular leisure activity among retirees and older travelers spend more on travel than any other age group, it’s expected that the travel segment will see vast inflows of cash as the population trends towards getting older. Thor Industries, a leading manufacturer of RV and Campervans should continue to see solid demand for their products in the coming years seeing as RV travel remains a firm favorite of baby boomers looking to use their time in retirement to explore. If the most popular demographic for RV/Camper van usage grows, so too should Thor’s revenue opportunities.

Rewards

  • Trading at 6.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Risks

  • Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.4% per year for the next 3 years

  • Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

  • Profit margins (4.6%) are lower than last year (6.8%)

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization innovative medicines that address unmet medical needs in central nervous system (CNS) disorders and rare diseases.

Why ACAD?

Treatments for some of the diseases affecting elderly populations.

  • The most pressing neurological and central nervous system diseases primarily affect the elderly population. These diseases are debilitating and often without cures. As the population is aging, the effects of these diseases are expected to add massive strain on our healthcare systems. Pharmaceutical companies like Arcadia Pharmaceuticals focus on the development of treatments for those that suffer hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Also within its clinical pipeline is a drug in phase 3 development to be used for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. Serious consequences have been associated with psychosis in patients with AD, such as increased likelihood of nursing home placement, more severe dementia and increased risk of morbidity and mortality. If Arcadia is able to achieve FDA approval, they’ll be pivotal in helping ease the healthcare burden as our population ages.

Rewards

  • Trading at 87.2% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 61.96% per year

  • Earnings have grown 8.8% per year over the past 5 years

Risks

No risks detected for ACAD from our risks checks.

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Simply Wall St analyst Bailey Pemberton and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned.