Duke Realty Corporation

NYSE:DRE Lagerbericht

Marktkapitalisierung: US$18.8b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Duke Realty Zukünftiges Wachstum

Future Kriterienprüfungen 1/6

Wichtige Informationen

-4.3%

Wachstumsrate der Gewinne

-7.88%

EPS-Wachstumsrate

REITs Gewinnwachstum12.1%
Wachstumsrate der Einnahmen11.4%
Zukünftige Eigenkapitalrendite6.68%
Analystenabdeckung

Good

Zuletzt aktualisiertn/a

Jüngste Aktualisierungen zum künftigen Wachstum

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Sep 08

Duke Realty: Great Company, But Too Expensive To Buy

Summary DRE is well-poised to benefit from the increase in rental rates, it has a strong balance sheet and great credit ratings. Duke’s current portfolio is stable and its new developments concentrate in very low vacancy areas. The current valuation is too expensive for new investors as Prologis offered Duke shareholders 0.475 shares of PLD after the acquisition. Investment thesis Duke Realty Corporation (DRE) is well-poised to benefit from the double-digit increase in rental rates and the rise in demand for its strategically located high-quality industrial real estate properties. 52% of the company's new developments have already been pre-leased. In addition, DRE has great expansionary efforts and a strong balance-sheet position. The only downside is that the company trades at the fair valuation of the Prologis (PLD) acquisition with a very low dividend yield at the moment. Duke Realty's business model DRE is a U.S.-only logistics REIT. The company is a member of the S&P 500 index. The management's main goal is to acquire, develop and rent out top-tier logistics facilities across the country. They have a highly reliable tenant base, their Top 10 tenants include Amazon (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), and UPS (UPS). DRE's portfolio of modern (the average year of the properties is 13 years old) and high-quality logistics facilities (they have the largest square foot properties among the company's peers) makes it well-poised to capitalize on growing and favorable industrial real estate market fundamentals. Company Presentation External trends In the last 2-3 years the warehouse market was booming like never before. The demand was very high due to the pandemic and the e-commerce businesses expanded rapidly. In addition, the supply was tight and there were relatively few quality warehouses in great locations. Now developers starting to notice that tenant demand is cooling, due to numerous new warehouse developments finished in recent years the supply has been rising and the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness. This means investors have to notice the short-term trend change and adjust their REIT portfolios accordingly. However, I would not consider massive logistics REIT selloffs due to this upcoming short-term bust cycle. Prologis expects rent growth of 22% in the U.S. during the year with vacancy rates remaining near all-time lows of 3.3%. Duke's portfolio is stable and its new developments concentrate in very low vacancy areas. I believe that during the next years rental rates will keep rising above inflation, which means investors can expect nice FFO and CAD figures. At the same time, I also expect that vacancy rates will increase not because the current tenants will leave but because newly built warehouses could be harder to rent out in a recession. But even if vacancy rates increase by 50-100 basis points the elevated rental income will compensate and investors will see shareholder value growth. Valuation Duke Realty maintains a robust balance sheet position, it has a conservative 65-75% AFFO payout ratio and its development pipeline is already 52% pre-leased. The company ended the second quarter with more than $40 million of cash and cash equivalents and has no significant debt maturities until 2026. It also has a favorable credit rating of Baa1/BBB+, which enables DRE to borrow at a favorable rate. This credit rating might be even better after the Prologis-Duke merger. This gives Duke Realty enough financial flexibility and facilitates its development activities. In terms of valuation, Prologis made a clear valuation of the company when it offered $26 billion for the company. Duke Realty shareholders will receive 0.475 of a Prologis share for each Duke Realty share owned. This means that the current valuation is spot on (PLD - $123*0,475= $58.425). DRE is trading almost exactly at this price. Of course, the price of PLD will change until the acquisition happens, it is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2022 but I do not believe much stock price appreciation will happen to PLD. This valuation is also supported by the dividend yield. An under 2% dividend yield is anything but attractive for DRE. I would consider it a great buying opportunity above a 3% dividend yield. Zacks.com Company-specific Risks Duke Realty is in a stable position. I see no existential threats to its business model or its financial health. There are only small risk factors that investors should be aware of. A development boom in the warehouse market and among logistical properties may increase competition and curb pricing power. Amazon has started to cancel lease agreements for the future which might sound scary but Amazon represented only 1% of Duke Realty's new leasing and 3% of development starts. The rising supply of warehouses and vacancy levels might cause some pressure in the upcoming quarters. It is also worth mentioning that its huge development pipeline exposes the company to various operational risks such as construction cost overruns (especially with soaring material costs and labor costs) and lease-up risks. DRE's dividend The company has been a consistent dividend payer for 27 years. In addition, the management has been raising the dividend for 7 consecutive years. Its FFO payout ratio is well covered, it is approximately around 60%. Its AFFO payout ratio is at healthy levels of about 65-75%. Analysts estimate a 9.8% increase which is very close to the current and past months' U.S. CPI. In this high inflation environment, we can safely say that DRE is a good choice for income investors. The table is created by the author. All figures are from the company's financial statements and SA Earnings Estimates.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 01

Duke Realty declares $0.28 dividend

Duke Realty (NYSE:DRE) declared $0.28/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 1.9% Payable Sept. 30; for shareholders of record Sept. 15; ex-div Sept. 14. See DRE Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

Duke Realty FFO of $0.45, revenue of $285.29M

Duke Realty press release (NYSE:DRE): Q2 FFO of $0.45; GAAP EPS of $0.27. Revenue of $285.29M (+5.0% Y/Y).
Seeking Alpha • Jul 15

Duke Realty downgraded to Neutral at Baird ahead of Prologis deal

Baird analyst David Rodgers downgraded Duke Realty (NYSE:DRE) to Market Weight on Friday, as he sees price discovery and recession fears limiting high-multiple returns. In his view, the Industrial correction is not yet complete. While he sees upside in stock next year, H2 2022 should continue to be challenging, he said. "The clarity on on negative spreads, continued price discovery and the sharpness of a pending recession are likely to keep value gaps wide near term," Rodgers wrote in a note to clients. "With this in mind, we are lowering DRE's rating to Neutral to match PLD." The Neutral rating on Duke (DRE) aligns with the Quant rating and the average SA Author's rating. DRE stock, meanwhile, is rising 2.0% in Friday morning trading. Recall that last month, Prologis (PLD) and Duke (DRE) agreed to a merger in which PLC will acquire DRE in an all-stock transaction valued at ~$26B at the time.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 06

Duke Realty: Acquisition By Prologis Stuck In A Valuation Dilemma

Prologis offered to acquire DRE at a premium of 29 percent, which was rejected by the board members of DRE. After being rejected, Prologis went hostile with an assumption that it offered sufficient premium (much higher than industry average) to DRE’s investors. DRE is not under any kind of financial stress, thus are not compelled to accept a bid if the board members believe that the firm is being undervalued.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 09

Duke Realty - Long-Term REIT Value And Growth

Duke Realty operates in one of the strongest REIT industries thanks to ongoing secular trends and the need for efficient logistics. DRE stock has come down 18% after running hot after the pandemic. Yet, its financials continue to show high (expected) growth rates. Duke Realty is in a great spot to deliver outperforming returns and significant dividend rate hikes on a long-term basis.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 27

Future FROG Of America: Duke Realty

I am bullish on the industrial REIT sector because of the tailwinds provided by e-commerce. Other industrial REITs have attracted my interest and my investment dollars in past years because of superior growth metrics. Duke Realty has rebalanced its portfolio and is well-positioned to generate double-digit revenue growth over the next several years.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 03

Duke Realty: There's Risk Of Paying More Than It's Worth

Duke Realty continues to fare well and investors have responded by pushing shares of the business higher. At present, though, the price being asked by the market in exchange for shares is not a low one. For some investors, this will be worth the wait in order to see a strong return, but for many others it won't be.

Gewinn- und Umsatzwachstumsprognosen

NYSE:DRE - Zukünftige Analystenschätzungen und Finanzdaten der Vergangenheit (USD Millions)
DatumUmsatzGewinneFreier CashflowBargeld aus operativen TätigkeitenDurchschn. Anz. Analysten
12/31/20241,407436589492
12/31/20231,274436-2178677
12/31/20221,136524-5817956
6/30/20221,122948659659N/A
3/31/20221,1081,021635635N/A
12/31/20211,119852642642N/A
9/30/20211,120917622622N/A
6/30/20211,102494617617N/A
3/31/20211,068358602602N/A
12/31/20201,004298566566N/A
9/30/2020968216541541N/A
6/30/2020948371509509N/A
3/31/2020946402506506N/A
12/31/2019984427506506N/A
9/30/20191,022404517517N/A
6/30/20191,013230512512N/A
3/31/2019986350486486N/A
12/31/2018957378484484N/A
9/30/2018851374460460N/A
6/30/2018812363449449N/A
3/31/2018843275454454N/A
12/31/2017790267450450N/A
9/30/2017809248465465N/A
6/30/2017797314490490N/A
3/31/2017743317494494N/A
12/31/2016746293457457N/A
9/30/2016785269456456N/A
6/30/2016838237402402N/A
3/31/2016878184N/A410N/A
12/31/2015805179N/A387N/A

Analystenprognosen zum zukünftigen Wachstum

Einkommen vs. Sparrate: DREFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird ein Rückgang der Gewinne prognostiziert (-4.3% pro Jahr).

Ertrag vs. Markt: DREFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird ein Rückgang der Gewinne prognostiziert (-4.3% pro Jahr).

Hohe Wachstumserträge: DREFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird mit einem Rückgang der Erträge gerechnet.

Einnahmen vs. Markt: DREDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (11.4% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich schneller wachsen als der Markt US (11.7% pro Jahr).

Hohe Wachstumseinnahmen: DREDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (11.4% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich langsamer wachsen als 20% pro Jahr.

Wachstumsprognosen für den Gewinn je Aktie

Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite

Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite: DREDie Eigenkapitalrendite des Unternehmens wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich niedrig sein (6.7%).

Wachstumsunternehmen entdecken

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Unternehmensanalyse und Finanzdaten Status

DatenZuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit)
Unternehmensanalyse2022/10/03 19:58
Aktienkurs zum Tagesende2022/09/30 00:00
Gewinne2022/06/30
Jährliche Einnahmen2021/12/31

Datenquellen

Die in unserer Unternehmensanalyse verwendeten Daten stammen von S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Die folgenden Daten werden in unserem Analysemodell verwendet, um diesen Bericht zu erstellen. Die Daten sind normalisiert, was zu einer Verzögerung bei der Verfügbarkeit der Quelle führen kann.

PaketDatenZeitrahmenBeispiel US-Quelle *
Finanzdaten des Unternehmens10 Jahre
  • Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung
  • Kapitalflussrechnung
  • Bilanz
Konsensschätzungen der Analysten+3 Jahre
  • Finanzielle Vorausschau
  • Kursziele der Analysten
Marktpreise30 Jahre
  • Aktienkurse
  • Dividenden, Splits und Aktionen
Eigentümerschaft10 Jahre
  • Top-Aktionäre
  • Insiderhandel
Verwaltung10 Jahre
  • Das Führungsteam
  • Direktorium
Wichtige Entwicklungen10 Jahre
  • Ankündigungen des Unternehmens

* Beispiel für US-Wertpapiere, für nicht-US-amerikanische Wertpapiere werden gleichwertige regulatorische Formulare und Quellen verwendet.

Sofern nicht anders angegeben, beziehen sich alle Finanzdaten auf einen Jahreszeitraum, werden aber vierteljährlich aktualisiert. Dies wird als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) oder Last Twelve Month (LTM) Daten bezeichnet. Erfahren Sie mehr.

Analysemodell und Schneeflocke

Einzelheiten zu dem Analysemodell, mit dem dieser Bericht erstellt wurde, finden Sie auf unserer Github-Seite. Außerdem bieten wir Leitfäden zur Verwendung unserer Berichte und Tutorials auf YouTube an.

Erfahren Sie mehr über das Weltklasse-Team, das das Simply Wall St-Analysemodell entworfen und entwickelt hat.

Metriken für Industrie und Sektor

Unsere Branchen- und Sektionskennzahlen werden alle 6 Stunden von Simply Wall St berechnet. Details zu unserem Verfahren finden Sie auf Github.

Analysten-Quellen

Duke Realty Corporation wird von 25 Analysten beobachtet. 7 dieser Analysten hat die Umsatz- oder Gewinnschätzungen übermittelt, die als Grundlage für unseren Bericht dienen. Die von den Analysten übermittelten Daten werden im Laufe des Tages aktualisiert.

AnalystEinrichtung
David RodgersBaird
Ross SmotrichBarclays
Paul AdornatoBMO Capital Markets Equity Research