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Vale S.A.NYSE:VALE Aktienübersicht

Marktkapitalisierung US$70.2b
Aktienkurs
US$16.32
US$17.42
6.3% unterbewertet intrinsischer Abschlag
1Y66.5%
7D-1.9%
Wert des Portfolios
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Vale S.A.

NYSE:VALE Lagerbericht

Marktkapitalisierung: US$70.2b

Vale (VALE) Aktienübersicht

Vale S.A. produziert zusammen mit seinen Tochtergesellschaften Eisenerz und Nickel in Brasilien, Asien, dem Nahen Osten, Nordafrika, Europa, Amerika und Ozeanien. Mehr Details

VALE grundlegende Analyse
Schneeflocken-Punktzahl
Bewertung1/6
Künftiges Wachstum2/6
Vergangene Leistung0/6
Finanzielle Gesundheit3/6
Dividenden3/6

Belohnungen

Prognostiziertes Gewinnwachstum 17.19% pro Jahr

Risikoanalyse

Die Dividende von 6.56% ist nicht gut durch Erträge oder freie Cashflows gedeckt

Große einmalige Posten, die sich auf die Finanzergebnisse auswirken

Hat einen hohen Schuldenstand

Die Gewinnspannen (7.3%) sind niedriger als im Vorjahr (14.9%)


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Vale S.A. Wettbewerber

Preisentwicklung & Leistung

Zusammenfassung der Höchst- und Tiefststände sowie der Veränderungen der Aktienkurse für Vale
Historische Aktienkurse
Aktueller AktienkursR$16.32
52-Wochen-HochR$17.94
52-Wochen-TiefR$8.97
Beta0.75
1 Monat Veränderung-8.21%
3 Monate Veränderung-1.98%
1 Jahr Veränderung66.53%
3 Jahre Veränderung17.75%
5 Jahre Veränderung-20.20%
Veränderung seit IPO625.35%

Aktuelle Nachrichten und Updates

Seeking Alpha • May 16

Vale: Why I'm Not Buying This ~5x EBITDA Multiple Yet

Summary Vale remains a solid company with an attractive valuation, but significant risks warrant a hold rating. Base metals, especially Nickel, are gaining EBITDA relevance, reducing VALE's dependence on iron ore. Dividend potential is notable, with conservative estimates suggesting a 6%+ yield in 2026, possibly double digits with special dividends. Iron ore price cyclicality and heavy China exposure, combined with Brazil risk, limit upside and justify a cautious stance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 16

Vale: Why I'm Not Buying This ~5x EBITDA Multiple Yet

Summary Vale remains a solid company with an attractive valuation, but significant risks warrant a hold rating. Base metals, especially Nickel, are gaining EBITDA relevance, reducing VALE's dependence on iron ore. Dividend potential is notable, with conservative estimates suggesting a 6%+ yield in 2026, possibly double digits with special dividends. Iron ore price cyclicality and heavy China exposure, combined with Brazil risk, limit upside and justify a cautious stance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 22

Vale Q1 Earnings Preview: A Bumpy Road But Still A Buy At These Valuations

Summary Vale S.A. remains a strong buy due to its operational advantage as a low-cost iron ore producer, despite current market headwinds and high interest rates in Brazil. The company's robust dividend strategy and potential for high free cash flow yield highlight its long-term investment appeal, even amid short-term challenges. Trump's tariffs and China's economic slowdown have negatively impacted Vale's performance, but the pessimism is already priced into the stock, presenting a buying opportunity ahead of 1Q25. Vale's earnings yield of 18.4% suggests it is generating a superior operating return compared to fixed-income investments, making VALE stock an attractive long-term investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 20

BHP Group Is Better Than Vale If You Really Want Mining Exposure

Summary Vale's stock has declined significantly since my last writing and trades at a P/E ratio of only ~5x. Yet, I still maintain a bearish outlook and want to caution you against bottom-fishing attempts. Key commodity prices have fallen significantly, and I foresee the price pressure to persist given the increased competition from China and other miners. I consider BHP as a better alternative thanks to its stronger balance sheet and brighter EPS growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 16

Vale: Upgrading To Buy On Improving Commodity Prices, Earnings On Deck

Summary Upgraded VALE to a buy due to favorable commodity backdrop, strong YTD performance, and improving fundamental conditions in South American equities. VALE's valuation is compelling, with a free cash flow yield above 10% and shares trading cheaply on a price-to-sales basis. Key risks include weaker commodity prices, global economic slowdown, higher interest rates, and political uncertainty. Despite technical risks, VALE's chart shows bullish momentum, suggesting potential for recovery amid a broader commodity price rebound. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

Double-Digit Dividend Yield: Why Vale Stands Out

Summary Vale's valuation is attractive, trading at a P/E of ~4.2x for 2025, with an EPS forecast implying a 24% earnings yield and a double-digit dividend yield. Despite long-term risks in iron ore, Vale's efficiency and growth in energy transition metals like copper and nickel offer promising diversification and margin improvement. Brazil's economic and legal challenges justify Vale's discount compared to peers, but the potential for high yields makes it appealing for risk-tolerant investors. Vale is a resilient, dollarized company with attractive dividends, offering de-correlation from US equities and benefiting from commodity cycle turns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 10

Vale: Preparing For The New Era In The Iron Ore Market

Summary The next 5 years project a lower dependence on Chinese demand for the iron ore market, indicates Vale's Investor Day. In a scenario of lower demand and the same supply, lower costs can be decisive for the sustainability of a mining company. Vale has made great strides in terms of environmental liabilities, and with an upside of 30%, it could be the big beneficiary in the next 5 years. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 10

Vale Battles Market Headwinds Despite Growth

Summary Vale’s Q3 iron ore production reached 90.97 million metric tons, the highest since 2019, up 12.9% quarter-over-quarter. Production gains in copper and nickel rose 9.3% and 68.8% respectively, supported by operational improvements in Sossego and Sudbury. Declining iron ore prices, driven by reduced Chinese demand, cut realized prices 7.7% quarter-over-quarter to $90.6 per ton. Rising freight and operational costs, alongside a $956 million provision for the 2015 Mariana dam incident, pressured margins. Premium adjustments on high-grade iron ore mitigated some losses, helping Vale offset declining market prices amid demand fluctuations. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 17

Vale Production Report Q3 2024: Good Volumes, Bad Prices

Summary Vale's 3Q24 report showed increased production but lower prices. Net revenue expected at $9.7 billion, with potential for strong 4Q24 sales. The increase in production was the largest since 2018, helped by seasonality. However, freight costs and lower ore prices are expected to squeeze margins. Despite this, the company trades at just 3.5x EBITDA, which seems like a great bargain given its robustness. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 02

Vale Stock: Think Of Doubling Down On Val(u)e

Summary Despite a 19% decline in VALE stock since February 2023, I believe China's recent robust monetary stimulus will boost demand for iron ore, benefiting Vale. Vale's Q2 financials show strong operational performance with a 15% QoQ rise in EBITDA (despite a YoY decline), and increased shipments. Vale maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy, reducing net debt and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, yielding in total of ~9.56%. Vale is a clear beneficiary of China's efforts to turn around its economy - this makes its forwarding EV/EBITDA multiple of ~3.5x very attractive and safe, in my view. I've decided to update my "Buy" rating today and recommend investors who bought Vale a few months ago (like me) to average down here. Vale may be a great value pick in today's markets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 28

Vale: A Cautious Hold Amid New CEO And Rising Iron Ore Prices

Summary Vale S.A.'s share price has dropped 30% YTD due to declining iron ore prices and a prolonged CEO succession battle. New CEO Gustavo Pimenta's appointment and iron ore prices stabilizing have positively impacted market sentiment. While Vale is positioning itself to meet an anticipated demand for high-grade ore in the years ahead, uncertainty regarding Chinese iron ore demand weighs on its prospects. Vale's dividend is irregular, and while it has some exposure to copper and nickel, diversification remains limited. Coupled with its associated political risks, it ultimately lands on a neutral recommendation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

Vale: High Capital Returns & Discounted Valuation

Summary The stock has been thoroughly discounted vs peers that prices in ESG issues. Chinese steel production and iron ore demand should remain stable on exporting over capacity. Vale´s 14% capital return yield and 30% discounted valuation provides solid carry protection. On a 4x P/cash earnings multiple (vs 5.7x at peers) the YE25 price target of US$12.5 +16%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 19

If The Fed Slashes Rates Too Soon, Vale Could Spike Higher

Summary A Fed rate cut in September may ignite a monster rally in industrial-related commodities like base metals. Vale is the clear valuation winner in the diversified mega-cap mining group, opening up tremendous upside if iron ore, nickel, and copper climb appreciably and unexpectedly in price. The trailing 12% dividend yield and 14% free cash flow yield proposition, from one of the world's largest and lowest-cost metals miners, is hard to pass up. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 01

Why Vale Could Rebound

Summary VALE has plunged nearly 30% YTD due to falling iron ore prices, but its solid operational performance positions it well in the face of market fluctuations. Increased iron ore production suggests producers expect a rebound in prices and demand, hinting that Vale's stock may have found a bottom and could rebound with signs of recovery. Vale's investments in nickel and copper for the EV market, coupled with early signs of Chinese economic recovery, support its performance against iron ore price fluctuations. Vale's commitment to ESG initiatives enhances its market position, attracting socially responsible investors and reinforcing its long-term growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 21

Vale: China's Construction Collapse Signals Multi-Decade Peak In Iron Ore Demand

Summary As expected, Vale has declined by ~21% since I last covered it as China's demand falters and production costs rise. By 2026, I expect we'll see even lower iron demand from China as its property bubble collapse accelerates despite government stimulus efforts. Chinese demand accounts for most of Vale's sales and is the primary driver of iron ore prices, implying a potentially permanent peak in China's iron import demand. As the Middle East and Asia governments pursue "make work" construction projects, I think there is evidence that global iron ore demand may never recover to 2010s levels within the foreseeable decades. Vale's copper business growth is not strong enough to offset its iron ore risks, potentially leaving the company mildly overvalued. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 22

Vale Stock: I Sense A Value Trap

Summary VALE stock trades at a low forward P/E of only 5.3x. However, market consensus expects a decline in VALE's EPS in the years ahead, leading to a higher implied FWD P/E. I see such a gloomy projection as quite plausible given China’s struggling economy and VALE’s large exposure to the China market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 26

Vale Q1 2024: Decent Results And Surprise With Provisions

Summary Vale's results in 1Q24 were decent and in line with expectations, the only surprise was the provision guidance. The company has been showing a sequential increase in iron ore volumes, which indicates resilient demand from China despite doubts. Vale has a 31% discount to its peers in terms of EV/EBITDA multiple, making it an attractive investment with strong margins and competitive cash costs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 15

Vale's Failures Don't Make It Uninvestable

Summary Vale S.A. has made significant safety improvements, removing 90% of tailings and decreasing its injury rate by over 60%. The company is expanding its iron ore capacity, with plans to add 50 million tonnes/year by 2026. Vale's financial performance has been strong, with increased EBITDA and cash flow, enabling substantial shareholder returns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 14

Vale: Why I'm Buying More Despite The Noise

Summary Vale's investment thesis focuses on delivering shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks amidst operational challenges and political noise. The company's competitive advantages as a low-cost producer and its robust cash generation support its ability to provide consistent returns to shareholders. Vale's dividend policy aims to distribute profits to shareholders, with an expected average yield of around 8% per year. Despite recent turbulence, Vale's discounted valuation and operational strengths position it well for delivering attractive shareholder yield in the long run. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 12

Vale: Potential Value Trap Reliant On Weakening Chinese Iron Ore Demand

Summary I previously issued a bear call on Vale in Jul-23, I am even more bearish now. Construction accounts for over 50% of Chinese steel demand, whereas new home sales have fallen by a third and new housing starts fallen by over 50% from their 2021 peak. I believe there is a significant risk China's property market downturn will materially negatively impact steel demand, iron ore prices and Vale's stock price beyond market expectations. Vale's P/E of 6 and dividend yield of 6% comes with this underlying risk, which I believe to be significant. Dividend investors should be aware of and cautious about it. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 11

Vale: Bet On Rising Iron Ore Demand While Being Paid To Wait

Summary Vale is the largest global iron ore producer, with 80% of its revenue coming from iron ore and the remaining 20% from energy transition materials. It is well-positioned to meet the growing demand for iron ore, especially in China, and has expanded into copper and nickel mining. The company has strong financials, with low production costs and a solid balance sheet, and offers attractive dividends and share buybacks to shareholders. Vale is the cheapest by a wide margin compared to its direct competitors, BHP and RIO. Vale's present EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA trade at low multiples compared to its ten-year figures. Vale has been part of my portfolio over the last two years, and I plan to hold it for longer. I give Vale a buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 04

Vale Could Have A Decent Year, Despite Poor Global Economic Prospects (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Vale SA's stock price may see a significant decline, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Q3 results were decent, and Q4 is expected to be even better due to higher iron ore prices. A global economic slowdown could lead to increased demand for infrastructure projects, driving up the demand for steel and iron ore. If Vale's stock price will see a decline of 20% or more from current levels, I intend to add to my existing position. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 29

Vale: Still More Upside But Be Cautious

Summary Vale demonstrates a strong presence in the iron ore market, with increased sales despite a slight drop in production. Vale's strategic initiatives, such as the development of Mega Hubs and diversification into Energy Transition Metals, contribute to its positive outlook. China's regulatory measures soften iron ore prices, yet the market stays bullish. Citigroup predicts an iron ore price hike to $140/ton amid Chinese solid demand, implying a 7% additional upside from current levels. Any decline in iron ore prices leading up to the Chinese New Year could present an attractive entry point. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 13

Vale Is A Terrific Rotation Play With Significant Long-Term Potential

Summary Vale remains resilient in the face of global economic challenges, benefiting from a robust iron ore market. Strong Q3 results demonstrate efficiency and cost-reduction efforts. The company's share buyback program reflects confidence in long-term value creation and potential earnings growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 29

Vale Q3 Earnings: Buy While It's Cheap

Summary Vale's Q3 results, characterized by a 7.8% sequential increase in EBITDA and 11.2% annual growth, reflect a robust recovery driven by favorable seasonality and rising iron ore prices. The company's disciplined capital allocation strategy, positive valuation metrics (trading below historical averages), and a 6% dividend yield for 2023 make it an attractive investment opportunity. Despite market challenges and dependency on Chinese demand, Vale's resilience in generating cash, repurchasing shares, and delivering dividends underpins the bullish thesis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 13

Vale: Buy On Higher For Longer Iron Ore Prices

Summary Chinese steel sector should rely on exports to recover from residential construction crash. Seaborne iron ore prices may remain above $100 for an extended period. Vale's valuation is discounted compared to Australian peers, suggesting potential for a 25% share price increase. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 25

Vale: Bet On Growing Iron Ore And Base Metals Demand At A Good Discount

Summary Vale is the largest iron ore producer in the world. Its performance is largely a function of the Chinese economy, due to 50% of total revenues being derived from China. Last quarter, Vale reported growing production figures across all segments. However, the declining commodity prices in 2022 and 1Q23 adversely impacted the company's bottom line. Vale has robust financials and solid growth prospects and is for sale at a 12% discount, as well as dividends with a respectable yield at 5.66%. The company has two risks in the face of China as a major buyer of Vales's iron ore, and Brazil with its political peculiarity. Despite the risks, I give Vale a buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 23

Vale: Q2 Earnings, Weathering The Storm

Summary The second quarter brought lackluster results for Vale due to the declining iron ore price, affecting its financials and balance sheet, coinciding with China's sluggish economic recovery. Vale's strategic move to spin off its base metals division and partner with Manara Minerals at a substantial valuation showcases the potential for unlocking value. Despite challenges, Vale offers an attractive valuation, showing resilience in generating positive cash flow, supported by a generous dividend and substantial share buyback program. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 04

Vale: Navigating Turbulent Commodity Markets

Summary Vale's Q2 2023 performance fell short of expectations due to lower iron ore and nickel prices. The company is focusing on value creation in Energy Transition Metals, with significant growth in copper production. Vale's strategic partnerships and commitment to sustainability position it for operational growth and stability. China's move to ease housing policies, aiming to boost demand and stabilize the property sector, could positively affect Vale's iron ore demand. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

Vale: Brazilian Mining Giant Potentially Undervalued And Offering +8% Dividend Yield

Summary Despite facing logistical challenges in Q1 2023, Vale S.A.'s production exceeded expectations, indicating strong potential for future growth. The company's low leverage ratio, strong cash generation, and exposure to China's recovery make it an attractive investment opportunity. The low P/E ratio and potential for EPS and multiples expansion in the near term also indicates that the stock may be undervalued. The net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.5x is significantly low, enabling high dividend distributions. Over the past 4 years, Vale has maintained an average dividend yield of 8%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 10

Vale: Moderately Discounted, Compelling Dividends And Buybacks

Summary Vale, the world's largest iron ore producer, is trading at a 30% discount from its peak in June 2021, indicating potential undervaluation given its strong cash generation in recent years. Despite uncertainties surrounding China's economic growth, Vale is expected to provide an attractive dividend yield to shareholders and benefit from share buybacks, enhancing investment returns. Vale has shown resilience in challenging periods within the iron ore market, and I expect the company to generate a 7-9% yield by 2023. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 02

Vale: A Promising Future Supported By Strong Financials And Strategic Operations

Summary Vale has shown strong financial performance, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and robust free cash flow in Q1, 2023. Vale is expected to experience substantial growth in its nickel production, reaching 300 ktpa by 2030, and has operations in key growth regions like Indonesia. Vale's valuation metrics, such as its PE ratio and EV-to-EBITDA, suggest that the company is currently undervalued in the market compared to its peer, Rio Tinto. Given Vale's strong financials and strategic business operations, the company presents an attractive investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 12

Vale In The Age Of EVs: Separating The Base Metal Business Could Unleash Tremendous Upside

Summary Vale's plan to separate its base metals operation from its iron ore unit is generating significant anticipation, especially in the context of the accelerating trend toward EVs. Below, I will analyze the asset portfolio of Vale Base Metals in order to provide insights into its risk-reward profile. Interested investors may consider gaining exposure to Vale Base Metals through Vale S.A., which currently pays dividends yielding 7.76%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 30

Vale: Separating The Base Metals Business Could Unlock Value

Summary Vale is considering separating its base metals division from its core iron ore business, potentially unlocking value and attracting a broader investor base. My SOTP valuation approach suggests 23% upside potential. Timing of the separation and potential IPO should be carefully considered, as the current environment of rising interest rates may not be optimal. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 21

Vale GAAP EPS of $0.82 beats by $0.19, revenue of $11.94B beats by $560M

Vale press release (NYSE:VALE): Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.82 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $11.94B (-8.9% Y/Y) beats by $560M. Proforma adjusted EBITDA from continued operations of US$ 5.0 billion in Q4, US$ 1 billion higher q/q, mainly reflecting the higher iron ore sales volumes and higher realized prices in nickel and copper. Proforma adjusted EBITDA from continued operations of US$ 20.9 billion in 2022, 38% lower than 2021 mainly due to 23.6% lower iron ore fines realized prices. Free Cash Flow from Operations of US$ 5.7 billion in 2022, vs. US$ 20.0 billion in 2021 due to lower EBITDA. US$ 12.6 billion paid in dividends, interest on capital and share repurchases in 2022. Since 2020, Vale has returned US$ 35 billion to shareholders, representing around 46% of its market cap. US$ 1.8 billion in dividends to be paid in March 2023, considering Vale’s ordinary dividend policy applied to 2H22 results. 3rd share buyback program now 43% complete, with a disbursement of US$ 3.4 billion to repurchase 213 million shares With the three buyback programs, earnings and dividends on a per share basis have each increased 15% since April 2021.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 15

Vale Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Vale (NYSE:VALE) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, February 16th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.61 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $11.39B (-13.1% Y/Y). Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 3 downward. The company on Oct. 27 posted Q3 net income of $4.45B, or $0.98/share, easily topping the forecast of $0.57/share, but revenue of $9.93B missed the consensus estimate of $10.2B. VALE has a Quant rating of HOLD, with a 3.46 rating score. VALE has an industry ranking of 11 out of 28 in the steel sector, as per SA's Quant ranking. Wall Street analysts rate the VALE stock BUY, while most Seeking Alpha Authors rate it HOLD. Recent analysis from our contributors: Vale: Upside Risk From Cosan Take Over Gambit by Ricardo Fernandez. Vale: H2 2023 May Spark The Recovery Of Iron Ore Prices by Juxtaposed Ideas. Vale: Waiting For Clarity On Base Metals Deal by The Methodical Investor. Earlier this month, RBC Capital downgraded VALE to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $15 price target, trimmed from $16, saying the miner's Q4 production results were largely in line but lagging performance in base metals drives a drop in 2023 estimates. VALE stock rose nearly 28% in 2022, while the benchmark S&P 500 index slipped nearly 20%.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 31

Vale: Upside Risk From Cosan Take Over Gambit

Summary IO (Iron Ore) prices may hold above US$100/ton long term despite far lower Chinese property construction demand. On IO prices of US$100/ton Vale is fairly valued at 5.5x EV/EBITDA YE23. However, Vale could move from cash cow to growth if Cosan can “take control”. Summary The Vale S.A. (VALE) investment case has been altered vs my previous analyses Vale Stock: A Value Trap; Poor Growth Prospects. I now believe IO prices can stay above US$100/ton, despite the Chinese property sector's steep demand decline, which supports the current share price. The upside risk may come from a Cosan S.A. (CSAN) “take over” that looks to create value via growth i.e. expand Copper and Nickel volumes and/or perhaps acquire Lithium and Cobalt assets. However, in order to exercise any change, Cosan will need to secure a shareholder pact. News on this front could be positive when and if it occurs. In my view Vale is a hold on current valuation, with upside risk on the Cosan take over gambit. Iron Ore Spot Prices in China (Image by Tradingeconomics.com) IO Prices May Stay over US$100/ton China IO demand and prices depend on China steel demand, which is driven by property and infrastructure construction as well as industrial demand (cars, machinery etc..). With the end of the real estate bubble and as residential construction declines the other sectors will need to make up the demand gap. I analyzed this steel/IO demand and capacity dynamics and came to the conclusion that under a 20% annual decline in housing units, back to 2003 levels, total steel/IO demand would see a 1.1% annual decline. China Steel Sector Breakdown (Image by S&P and Wood Mackenzie) China Steel and Iron Ore Estimates (Created by author with data from Vale) There are several factors that favor imported or seaborn IO. First is that China's steel capacity is predominantly (80%) a furnace/pig iron based technology that requires IO vs the electric arch technology that uses scrap steel for long (construction) products. The other key factor is that the Chinese IO is low grade and produces more Co2 than Brazilian or Australian IO grades. Thus, it’s possible China IO capacity declines before seaborn imports. In addition, the other price equation for IO is seaborn supply or the ability of the top 4, with the lowest costs, to reduce or tighten capacity. Under the current production guidance, seaborn IO could grow 2% annually and increase its share of China demand from 80% to 95% long term. However, faced with a tight or declining steel demand environment, the top 4 may reduce capacity expansion, which helps the price dynamics. Iron Ore Volume Estimates (Created by author with data from Vale, Rio and BHP) Iron Ore Volume Estimates (Created by author with data from Vale, Rio and BHB) Fair value with IO at US$100/ton Vale could see EBITDA of over US18$bn on flat iron ore volumes and prices. This supports a valuation of US$17.6 for YE23 with a dividend yield of 7%. This is not a great return risk reward equation on its own and warrants at best a hold rating. Copper and Nickel contribute less than US$3bn to EBITDA and are still not growth drivers. Vale should accelerate its green metal portfolio in my view. Below I present the financial and operating estimates with IO prices at US$100/ton with flat volumes and lower capex. Valuation is based on the companies 20yr average EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x, which may be viewed as generous given the low growth IO scenario. Vale Financial and Valuation Forecast (Created by author with data from Vale) Vale Operating Forecast (Created by author with date from Vale) Cosan upside risk Cosan is a Brazilian conglomerate that acquired, via a complex share option structure, 6.5% of Vale. The stated proposal is to “contribute to value creation with current shareholders and the company’s management”. This stake will cost Cosan about R$1bn per year in funding cost or 10% of its operating cash flow. The market was not at all content with the transaction and the shares sold down over 15%.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 24

Vale: Waiting For Clarity On Base Metals Deal

Summary The recent runup in Vale S.A.’s share price is predicated on the Chinese economy returning to the growth rates of the past. Structural problems in the Chinese economy may prevent iron ore demand from returning to its old highs. However, Vale is pursuing an intriguing deal that will see copper and nickel operations split from the iron operations. Like most other major iron ore producers, the shares of Vale S.A. (VALE) have been on quite a run since the end of November. Since that time, the stock has appreciated by well over 40% as investors anticipate the lifting of COVID restrictions in China and the gradual ramp-up of its economy. That expectation has also led to the prices of copper, iron ore, and nickel to surge to levels not seen since the first half of last year. But the market may be getting ahead of itself, for the Chinese economy was slowing even before the onset of the pandemic, and the structural problems that it was facing then have only gotten worse in the last three years. That realization may soon lead the market to temper its enthusiasm towards the price of metals as well as Vale's shares. However, there's also another issue that's overhanging Vale's stock; that being the proposed deal to hive off its base metals operations into a separate business. In this article, we'll review the proposed transaction as well as the stock's prospects within the current macroeconomic environment. Company Background As most readers are probably well aware, Vale is one of the world's largest mining companies, and like the majority of the other major players in this space, it makes most of its money through the sale of iron ore. As can be seen in the exhibit below, the company derived almost 80% of its Q3 net operating revenue from the sale of iron ore, in both pellets and fines, while second place nickel trailed far behind with only a 10% share of its revenue. Vale Q3/22 Revenue Distribution (Author Using Financial Statement Information) The heavy focus on a single commodity left the company exposed to iron ore price volatility and the pullback in ore prices that occurred throughout most of the second half of last year. Third quarter revenues from Ferrous Minerals came in 13% lower than the previous quarter and 26% lower than Q3/21. And given such a steep decline, it was unsurprising that the stock price fell from over $21 in Q2 to just over $12 in July. However, this is not a critique of Vale's business model. Highly focused producers are often easier to analyze and understand, but when the price of the underlying commodity declines, there is not much that management or investors can do about it. Luckily, Vale is well-positioned to ride out these rough patches, and investors can afford to wait for the next cyclical upswing given the company's high dividend yield. The market also appears to believe that the next upswing is right around the corner. In recent months, the company's stock price has rallied hard in anticipation of an end to Covid lockdowns in China and the restart of that nation's economy; China is the world's largest importer of iron ore, and a return to the growth rates of the past would undoubtedly power ore prices to new heights. The problem, however, is that those growth rates may not be coming back anytime soon. China In a previous article on Rio Tinto Group (RIO), I discussed the deteriorating environment for international trade and how that would likely impede China's future growth. So as not to restate the same facts, this article will discuss China's deteriorating real estate sector. It's no secret that the Chinese economy has been experiencing a decades-long real estate boom. In 2017, Chinese media reported that China's floor space per capita had risen to 40.8 square meters, a number equal to that of Europe. After that, many investors predicted that China's real estate market would soon crash, but developers kept building and prices held up. As can be seen in the exhibit below, towards the end of the decade the amount of floor space being added was declining and problems were beginning to emerge in the sector. Evergrande Group, one of China's largest developers, defaulted in 2021 and home prices were beginning to fall. statista.com The pandemic went on to compound those problems substantially. Last year, home sales in China fell by 26.7%, and 31.5% when measured by square meters sold. bloomberg.com Granted, warnings about China's real estate market is something that investors have been hearing about for many years now, and while it's true that the Chinese government will probably once again take steps to prop up property prices, at a certain point the music will have to stop. The recent news that China's population has begun to shrink will only aggravate the problem, and trade tensions with many of its biggest trading partners won't help the situation either. Vale's management doesn't seem to be extremely bullish on the global economy, either. They expect iron ore production to increase only slightly to 320m tonnes in 2023 compared to 310m last year; that's a far cry from the 100m tonne per quarter run rate the company was hitting in 2018. Base Metals Deal However, it's not all doom and gloom for the company. For some time now, management has been trumpeting its dedication and commitment to the energy transition. During the most recent quarterly earnings call, Eduardo Bartolomeo, Vale's CEO, made sure to once again mention how Vale was positioning itself to be, "the partner of choice of the energy transition and the EV megatrend." In saying that, he sounded like almost every other CEO of a publicly traded company, who are now all trying to somehow associate their companies with the EV industry. The difference with Vale, however, is that these declarations are being backed up with concrete measures. In September, the company announced that it was in discussions to sell a minority stake in its base metals business in order to boost copper and nickel production to meet the growing demand resulting from the energy transition. Copper production is already expected to jump to between 335k and 370k tonnes this year from about 260k tonnes last year, while nickel production is anticipated to be 300k tonnes in 2023, much higher than the approximately 180k tonnes produced in 2022.

Aktionärsrenditen

VALEUS Metals and MiningUS Markt
7D-1.9%-4.5%-0.3%
1Y66.5%89.5%24.0%

Rendite im Vergleich zur Industrie: VALE unter dem Niveau der Branche US Metals and Mining , die im vergangenen Jahr eine Rendite von 89.5% erzielte.

Rendite vs. Markt: VALE übertraf den Markt US, der im vergangenen Jahr eine Rendite von 24 erzielte.

Preisvolatilität

Is VALE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
VALE volatility
VALE Average Weekly Movement5.3%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement9.9%
Market Average Movement7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stabiler Aktienkurs: VALE hatte in den letzten 3 Monaten im Vergleich zum US -Markt keine signifikante Preisvolatilität.

Volatilität im Zeitverlauf: VALEDie wöchentliche Volatilität (5%) ist im vergangenen Jahr stabil geblieben.

Über das Unternehmen

GegründetMitarbeiterCEOWebsite
194265,805Gustavo Pimentavale.com

Vale S.A. produziert zusammen mit seinen Tochtergesellschaften Eisenerz und Nickel in Brasilien, Asien, dem Nahen Osten, Nordafrika, Europa, Amerika und Ozeanien. Das Unternehmen ist in zwei Segmenten tätig: Iron Ore Solutions und Vale Base Metals. Es fördert, produziert und vertreibt Eisenerz, Eisenerzpellets, Briketts, Nickel, Kupfer, andere eisenhaltige Produkte und Nebenprodukte, einschließlich Gold, Silber, Kobalt, Platingruppenmetalle und andere Basismetalle sowie kohlenstoffarme kritische Mineralien.

Vale S.A.'s Grundlagenzusammenfassung

Wie verhalten sich die Erträge und Einnahmen von Vale im Vergleich zum Marktanteil des Unternehmens?
VALE grundlegende Statistiken
MarktanteilUS$70.21b
Gewinn(TTM)US$3.08b
Umsatz(TTM)US$42.37b
22.8x
Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis
1.7x
Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis

Ist VALE zu teuer?

Siehe Fair Value und Bewertungsanalyse

Erträge & Einnahmen

Wichtige Rentabilitätsstatistiken aus dem letzten Ergebnisbericht (TTM)
VALE Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung (TTM)
EinnahmenR$214.86b
Kosten der EinnahmenR$139.50b
BruttogewinnR$75.37b
Sonstige AusgabenR$59.76b
GewinnR$15.60b

Zuletzt gemeldete Gewinne

Mar 31, 2026

Datum des nächsten Gewinnberichts

Jul 30, 2026

Gewinn per Aktie (EPS)3.66
Bruttomarge35.08%
Nettogewinnspanne7.26%
Schulden/Eigenkapital-Verhältnis55.4%

Wie hat sich VALE auf lange Sicht entwickelt?

Historische Performance und Vergleiche

Dividenden

6.6%
Aktuelle Dividendenrendite
150%
Ausschüttungsquote

Unternehmensanalyse und Finanzdaten Status

DatenZuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit)
Unternehmensanalyse2026/05/17 20:40
Aktienkurs zum Tagesende2026/05/15 00:00
Gewinne2026/03/31
Jährliche Einnahmen2025/12/31

Datenquellen

Die in unserer Unternehmensanalyse verwendeten Daten stammen von S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Die folgenden Daten werden in unserem Analysemodell verwendet, um diesen Bericht zu erstellen. Die Daten sind normalisiert, was zu einer Verzögerung bei der Verfügbarkeit der Quelle führen kann.

PaketDatenZeitrahmenBeispiel US-Quelle *
Finanzdaten des Unternehmens10 Jahre
  • Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung
  • Kapitalflussrechnung
  • Bilanz
Konsensschätzungen der Analysten+3 Jahre
  • Finanzielle Vorausschau
  • Kursziele der Analysten
Marktpreise30 Jahre
  • Aktienkurse
  • Dividenden, Splits und Aktionen
Eigentümerschaft10 Jahre
  • Top-Aktionäre
  • Insiderhandel
Verwaltung10 Jahre
  • Das Führungsteam
  • Direktorium
Wichtige Entwicklungen10 Jahre
  • Ankündigungen des Unternehmens

* Beispiel für US-Wertpapiere, für nicht-US-amerikanische Wertpapiere werden gleichwertige regulatorische Formulare und Quellen verwendet.

Sofern nicht anders angegeben, beziehen sich alle Finanzdaten auf einen Jahreszeitraum, werden aber vierteljährlich aktualisiert. Dies wird als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) oder Last Twelve Month (LTM) Daten bezeichnet. Erfahren Sie mehr.

Analysemodell und Schneeflocke

Einzelheiten zu dem Analysemodell, mit dem dieser Bericht erstellt wurde, finden Sie auf unserer Github-Seite. Außerdem bieten wir Leitfäden zur Verwendung unserer Berichte und Tutorials auf YouTube an.

Erfahren Sie mehr über das Weltklasse-Team, das das Simply Wall St-Analysemodell entworfen und entwickelt hat.

Metriken für Industrie und Sektor

Unsere Branchen- und Sektionskennzahlen werden alle 6 Stunden von Simply Wall St berechnet. Details zu unserem Verfahren finden Sie auf Github.

Analysten-Quellen

Vale S.A. wird von 41 Analysten beobachtet. 22 dieser Analysten hat die Umsatz- oder Gewinnschätzungen übermittelt, die als Grundlage für unseren Bericht dienen. Die von den Analysten übermittelten Daten werden im Laufe des Tages aktualisiert.

AnalystEinrichtung
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Amos FletcherBarclays
Mary Cleia da SilvaBB Banco de Investimento S.A.