Duolingo Zukünftiges Wachstum
Future Kriterienprüfungen 1/6
Der Gewinn von Duolingo wird voraussichtlich um 31.1% pro Jahr zurückgehen, während der Jahresumsatz um 12.3% pro Jahr wachsen soll. Der Gewinn je Aktie wird voraussichtlich um 40% pro Jahr sinken. Die Eigenkapitalrendite wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich 24.6% betragen.
Wichtige Informationen
-31.1%
Wachstumsrate der Gewinne
-40.04%
EPS-Wachstumsrate
| Consumer Services Gewinnwachstum | 11.5% |
| Wachstumsrate der Einnahmen | 12.3% |
| Zukünftige Eigenkapitalrendite | 24.58% |
| Analystenabdeckung | Good |
| Zuletzt aktualisiert | 17 Jun 2026 |
Jüngste Aktualisierungen zum künftigen Wachstum
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jun 16
Duolingo: The Most Asymmetric Risk/Reward In Consumer Tech
Summary Duolingo is rated Strong Buy, trading at 12x earnings and a 0.28x forward PEG, with robust free cash flow and no debt. DUOL's DAUs have grown 350% post-ChatGPT, reaching 56.5 million, with 22% conversion to paid users and a powerful, sticky brand. Despite sector-wide SaaS drawdown, DUOL's AI-driven growth, 35% free cash flow margins, and a $1.1 billion cash position underscore its asymmetrical risk/reward profile. Management targets 100 million DAUs by 2028, sacrificing $50 million in bookings and guiding 15–18% revenue growth to accelerate user expansion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrativ-Update • Jun 16
DUOL: Slowing Monthly Users And Earnings Pressure Will Drive Bearish Repricing
Analysts have revised Duolingo's fair value estimate from $160.00 to $81.00, citing updated assumptions around user growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, even as some firms raise price targets on stronger near-term daily active user trends. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo highlights a more cautious tone from several bearish analysts, even as some price targets move higher.
Narrativ-Update • Jun 02
DUOL: AI Led User Engagement And DAU Focus May Support Upside
Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate edges up to $133.98 from $133.96 as analysts balance slightly higher revenue growth assumptions with more cautious views on profit margins and future P/E multiples, following a mix of recent price target raises and cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo presents a mixed picture, with shifts in price targets and ratings reflecting different views on user growth, profitability, and valuation.Narrativ-Update • May 16
DUOL: User Growth Pivot And Buyback May Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed the Duolingo fair value estimate slightly to about $134 from about $136. This reflects reduced revenue growth assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and lower future P/E expectations, partly offset by a slightly higher profit margin outlook after a series of mixed price target changes and ratings downgrades across the Street.
Narrativ-Update • May 01
DUOL: User Growth Pivot And AI Expansion Will Define Balanced Risk Reward
The analyst price target for Duolingo has been trimmed slightly to $104.97 from $105.73 as analysts factor in the company’s pivot toward user growth over near term monetization, more conservative bookings expectations for 2026, and a modest reset in long term revenue growth, margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research around Duolingo has turned more cautious as the company leans into a user growth first playbook and reins in 2026 bookings expectations.Narrativ-Update • Apr 17
DUOL: User Growth Pivot And AI Roadmap May Unlock Future Upside
Analysts made a small upward adjustment to Duolingo's fair value estimate to $136.17 as they factor in the company's pivot toward user growth, tempered revenue and margin expectations, and a slightly higher assumed future P/E of about 36.8x following a series of downgrades and reset price targets clustered around $85 to $114. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage has shifted toward a more cautious stance on Duolingo as the company leans into user growth and accepts lower near term visibility on monetization and margins.Narrativ-Update • Apr 03
DUOL: User Growth Pivot And AI Product Work Will Support Upside
Analysts have cut the Duolingo fair value estimate from $156.52 to $136.16, reflecting a series of price target reductions as they reassess monetization, growth visibility, and the impact of the company’s pivot toward user growth over near term profitability. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has tilted cautious on Duolingo, with a series of downgrades and lower price targets following the company’s decision to prioritize daily active user growth over near term monetization and margins.Narrativ-Update • Mar 19
DUOL: User Expansion Pivot And AI Investments Will Shape Balanced Future Prospects
Analysts have reduced the Duolingo fair value estimate from about $270.74 to $105.73. This reflects a broad reset in price targets as they reassess slower projected revenue growth, lower profit margins, and a more cautious future P/E multiple tied to the company's pivot toward user growth over near-term monetization.
Neues Narrativ • Mar 06
Duolingo: Billion Dollar Business Hiding in Plain Sight
Duolingo just crossed $1 billion in revenue and delivered a 367% surge in net earnings — yet the stock trades at a trailing P/E of just 11x. For a market-leading EdTech platform with 50 million daily active users, that’s a number you’d normally associate with a slow-moving industrial company, not one of the most recognisable consumer brands on the planet.Narrativ-Update • Mar 05
DUOL: Long Term User Focus And AI Features Will Drive Upside
Narrative Update: Duolingo Our updated narrative fair value for Duolingo shifts to $156.52 from $347.00, reflecting analysts' broad reset of price targets to the $85 to $114 range as they recalibrate expectations for bookings growth, profitability, and future P/E multiples in light of the company's focus on user growth over near term monetization. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Duolingo has tilted cautious, with many firms resetting ratings to Neutral or equivalent and clustering price targets around the US$85 to US$114 range.Narrativ-Update • Feb 19
DUOL: User Engagement And CFO Transition Will Shape Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have trimmed Duolingo's implied upside, with the consolidated price target moving toward $160 as they factor in slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted growth expectations, and recent target cuts from firms citing tempered user growth estimates and a more selective market for high multiple internet names. Analyst Commentary Recent research has tilted more cautious, with several Bearish analysts trimming price targets and flagging execution and growth risks around user trends and valuation for Duolingo.Analyseartikel • Feb 05
Earnings Working Against Duolingo, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:DUOL) Share Price Following 37% Dive
Duolingo, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 37...Narrativ-Update • Feb 05
DUOL: Long Term User Focus And New Offerings Will Shape Future Repricing
Narrative Update Analysts trimmed their Duolingo fair value estimate from $180 to $160, as lower projected profit margins and valuation multiples outweighed slightly higher modeled revenue growth and a modestly reduced discount rate. This aligns with recent Street price target cuts and more cautious user growth expectations.Narrativ-Update • Jan 22
DUOL: Long Term User Focus And Chess Expansion Will Drive Upside
Analysts cut their Duolingo fair value estimate from about $600 to roughly $347, reflecting lower price targets and more moderate assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, future P/E multiples, and a slightly higher discount rate, as recent research highlights a focus on longer term user growth over near term monetization and mixed reactions to product and user growth trends. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Duolingo centers on a trade off between near term monetization and longer term user growth.Narrativ-Update • Jan 08
DUOL: Long Term User Focus And Product Experiments Will Shape Future Repricing
Our Duolingo fair value estimate has been reset from US$390 to US$180 as analysts broadly trim price targets and factor in slightly slower modeled revenue growth, a lower future P/E, and the company's increased focus on long term user expansion over near term monetization following the recent Q3 update and Chess product commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on Duolingo, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and, in one case, removing a target altogether.Narrativ-Update • Dec 16
DUOL: Long-Term User Expansion Focus Will Drive Renewed Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their Duolingo price target slightly to about $271 from roughly $271.05, reflecting modestly higher discount rates and a greater focus on long term user growth and product investment over near term monetization, even as they acknowledge improving revenue growth and margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research highlights a wide range of views on Duolingo, with most firms trimming price targets but maintaining generally constructive stances on the company’s long term growth algorithm and product roadmap.Narrativ-Update • Dec 01
DUOL: Long-Term User Growth Focus Will Drive Renewed Interest Ahead
Duolingo's fair value estimate has been revised downward from $289.81 to $271.05 as analysts reacted to a series of price target reductions. These adjustments were driven by concerns over the company's shifting focus toward long-term user growth instead of prioritizing near-term monetization and profitability.Narrativ-Update • Nov 17
DUOL: Focus On Long-Term User Engagement Will Drive Sustained Platform Expansion
Duolingo’s fair value estimate has been sharply reduced from approximately $443 to $290 per share. Analysts point to a combination of lower growth expectations and a strategic pivot toward long-term user engagement over immediate profitability.Narrativ-Update • Nov 01
DUOL: User Growth Concerns Will Fade As Engagement Increases In Key Markets
Duolingo's analyst price target has been lowered by $6.50 to $442.74 per share. Analysts cite ongoing concerns over user growth and recent valuation adjustments, even as revenue continues to grow.Narrativ-Update • Oct 17
China And Asia Expansion Will Transform Digital Education
Analysts have slightly trimmed Duolingo's fair value estimate by $2.50, as modest adjustments to user growth expectations and continued competitive risks are tempering near-term optimism for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reviews of Duolingo reflect a balanced mix of optimism about the company's product strengths and ongoing concerns related to user growth and competition.Analyseartikel • Oct 09
Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) Looks Just Right With A 27% Price Jump
Those holding Duolingo, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DUOL ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the...Narrativ-Update • Oct 03
China And Asia Expansion Will Transform Digital Education
Duolingo's analyst fair value estimate has been slightly reduced by approximately $5 to $451.74, as analysts cite ongoing concerns about slower user growth and increased competition, which are impacting future performance expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research highlights a mix of cautious sentiment and continued confidence in Duolingo's long-term prospects, focusing on user growth trends, competitive risks, and valuation concerns.Narrativ-Update • Sep 05
China And Asia Expansion Will Transform Digital Education
Duolingo’s consensus price target was modestly reduced to $478.65 as analysts cite weaker-than-expected user growth trends, persistent competition risks, and recent social media setbacks, partially offset by confidence in the company’s growth prospects beyond language learning. Analyst Commentary Decelerating user growth and indications that active users and subscribers are trending below consensus estimates have led bearish analysts to reduce targets and downgrade ratings.Analyseartikel • Jul 11
Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Ideally, a...Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
Duolingo: Love The Business, Don't Love The Valuation
Summary Duolingo is the largest global language learning platform, with 116m monthly active users and 9.5m paid subscribers. In 2024, Duolingo grew revenues by 41% and reported 26% adjusted EBITDA margins. Duolingo continues to increase its total addressable market by expanding internationally, launching new verticals (e.g., maths, music, chess), and launching premium AI-enabled language learning tiers. Duolingo trades on a rich multiple of 17x forward revenue and 66x forward earnings. While Duolingo is a high-quality business, the current valuation does not present an attractive risk reward, so I rate Duolingo a hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 10
Duolingo: Still A Bargain At 35x FCF? I Think So
Summary I love that Duolingo is growing fast and throwing off meaningful free cash flow—those two don’t often go together. The fact that they have no debt and nearly a billion in cash gives me confidence, especially in a shaky macro environment. I’m bullish because they’re not just coasting—they’re innovating with AI, expanding into new subjects, and upselling premium plans. Valuation wise, 35x forward FCF feels entirely fair to me for a business compounding at over 30% annually with rising margins. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 28
Duolingo: AI Concerns Are Overblown, But Stock Is Already Overpriced Anyway
Summary Duolingo, Inc.'s stock fell ~15% after reporting Q4 results, despite healthy user growth and an acceleration in bookings. AI displacement fears are unwarranted; Duolingo's user metrics and advanced AI features show strong resilience and continued growth. Risks include potential user attrition after course completion, macroeconomic challenges, and a high valuation that limits upside potential. At current valuations, Duolingo's multiples are difficult to justify. I'm reiterating my neutral rating and wouldn't buy DUOL stock unless its revenue multiple fell to the high single digits/low teens. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaGewinn- und Umsatzwachstumsprognosen
| Datum | Umsatz | Gewinne | Freier Cashflow | Bargeld aus operativen Tätigkeiten | Durchschn. Anz. Analysten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,542 | 211 | 509 | 476 | 10 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,374 | 170 | 482 | 442 | 21 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,206 | 145 | 359 | 377 | 20 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,099 | 422 | 405 | 433 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,038 | 414 | 360 | 388 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 964 | 386 | 348 | 364 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 885 | 117 | 321 | 336 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 811 | 97 | 289 | 308 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 748 | 89 | 264 | 286 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 689 | 87 | 229 | 251 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 634 | 66 | 210 | 233 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 583 | 46 | 190 | 208 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 531 | 16 | 140 | 154 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 484 | -10 | 106 | 116 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 442 | -31 | 78 | 87 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 404 | -50 | 54 | 63 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 369 | -60 | 44 | 54 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 339 | -63 | 32 | 42 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 306 | -74 | 30 | 38 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 277 | -59 | 18 | 25 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 251 | -60 | 3 | 9 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 226 | -53 | 6 | 12 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 208 | -27 | 3 | 9 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 189 | -27 | 14 | 18 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 162 | -16 | 14 | 18 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 71 | -14 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
Analystenprognosen zum zukünftigen Wachstum
Einkommen vs. Sparrate: DUOLFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird ein Rückgang der Gewinne prognostiziert (-31.1% pro Jahr).
Ertrag vs. Markt: DUOLFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird ein Rückgang der Gewinne prognostiziert (-31.1% pro Jahr).
Hohe Wachstumserträge: DUOLFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird mit einem Rückgang der Erträge gerechnet.
Einnahmen vs. Markt: DUOLDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (12.3% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich langsamer wachsen als der Markt US (13% pro Jahr).
Hohe Wachstumseinnahmen: DUOLDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (12.3% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich langsamer wachsen als 20% pro Jahr.
Wachstumsprognosen für den Gewinn je Aktie
Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite
Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite: DUOLDie Eigenkapitalrendite des Unternehmens wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich hoch sein (24.6%)
Wachstumsunternehmen entdecken
Unternehmensanalyse und Finanzdaten Status
| Daten | Zuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit) |
|---|---|
| Unternehmensanalyse | 2026/06/17 01:26 |
| Aktienkurs zum Tagesende | 2026/06/17 00:00 |
| Gewinne | 2026/03/31 |
| Jährliche Einnahmen | 2025/12/31 |
Datenquellen
Die in unserer Unternehmensanalyse verwendeten Daten stammen von S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Die folgenden Daten werden in unserem Analysemodell verwendet, um diesen Bericht zu erstellen. Die Daten sind normalisiert, was zu einer Verzögerung bei der Verfügbarkeit der Quelle führen kann.
| Paket | Daten | Zeitrahmen | Beispiel US-Quelle * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finanzdaten des Unternehmens | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Konsensschätzungen der Analysten | +3 Jahre |
|
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| Marktpreise | 30 Jahre |
| |
| Eigentümerschaft | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Verwaltung | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Wichtige Entwicklungen | 10 Jahre |
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* Beispiel für US-Wertpapiere, für nicht-US-amerikanische Wertpapiere werden gleichwertige regulatorische Formulare und Quellen verwendet.
Sofern nicht anders angegeben, beziehen sich alle Finanzdaten auf einen Jahreszeitraum, werden aber vierteljährlich aktualisiert. Dies wird als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) oder Last Twelve Month (LTM) Daten bezeichnet. Erfahren Sie mehr.
Analysemodell und Schneeflocke
Einzelheiten zu dem Analysemodell, mit dem dieser Bericht erstellt wurde, finden Sie auf unserer Github-Seite. Außerdem bieten wir Leitfäden zur Verwendung unserer Berichte und Tutorials auf YouTube an.
Erfahren Sie mehr über das Weltklasse-Team, das das Simply Wall St-Analysemodell entworfen und entwickelt hat.
Metriken für Industrie und Sektor
Unsere Branchen- und Sektionskennzahlen werden alle 6 Stunden von Simply Wall St berechnet. Details zu unserem Verfahren finden Sie auf Github.
Analysten-Quellen
Duolingo, Inc. wird von 29 Analysten beobachtet. 21 dieser Analysten hat die Umsatz- oder Gewinnschätzungen übermittelt, die als Grundlage für unseren Bericht dienen. Die von den Analysten übermittelten Daten werden im Laufe des Tages aktualisiert.
| Analyst | Einrichtung |
|---|---|
| Vikram Kesavabhotla | Baird |
| X. Lu | Barclays |
| Ross Sandler | Barclays |