New Risk • Apr 29
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -CN¥285m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-CN¥285m free cash flow). Earnings have declined by 35% per year over the past 5 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
Full year 2025 earnings released: CN¥0.30 loss per share (vs CN¥0.39 loss in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: CN¥0.30 loss per share (improved from CN¥0.39 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: CN¥722.0m (down 22% from FY 2024). Net loss: CN¥198.6m (loss narrowed 23% from FY 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 32% per year. Announcement • Apr 29
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2026 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2026, at 13:30 China Standard Time. Location: 9F, No. 523, Qinghe East Road, Fuyang, Anhui China Announcement • Mar 30
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 30, 2026 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 30, 2026 New Risk • Jan 22
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 27% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Dec 26
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 30, 2026 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 30, 2026 Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: CN¥0.043 loss per share (vs CN¥0.17 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: CN¥0.043 loss per share (improved from CN¥0.17 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥144.4m (up 3.7% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: CN¥28.3m (loss narrowed 74% from 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 22% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Sep 30
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 30, 2025 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 30, 2025 Breakeven Date Change • Sep 05
No longer forecast to breakeven The analyst covering Anhui Golden Seed Winery no longer expects the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of CN¥196.4m in 2025. New forecast suggests the company will make a loss of CN¥124.0m in 2026. Announcement • Jun 30
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 30, 2025 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 30, 2025 New Risk • May 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 4.3% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 4.3% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-CN¥343m). New Risk • May 05
New minor risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow. Free cash flow: -CN¥387m This is considered a minor risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Apr 29
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 29, 2025 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 29, 2025, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Announcement • Mar 28
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 29, 2025 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 29, 2025 Breakeven Date Change • Dec 31
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2025 The 3 analysts covering Anhui Golden Seed Winery previously expected the company to break even in 2024. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of CN¥184.3m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 110% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Dec 27
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 29, 2025 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 29, 2025 Price Target Changed • Dec 25
Price target increased by 12% to CN¥19.00 Up from CN¥17.04, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 45% above last closing price of CN¥13.13. Stock is down 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.16 next year compared to a net loss per share of CN¥0.03 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 26
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: CN¥0.17 loss per share (vs CN¥0.004 profit in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: CN¥0.17 loss per share (down from CN¥0.004 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥139.2m (down 54% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: CN¥110.6m (down CN¥113.6m from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 26% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 29% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 17
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.4% to CN¥12.36. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥15.67, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.4% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 62% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 731% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Sep 30
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Chinese stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Sep 30
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 26, 2024 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 26, 2024 Reported Earnings • Aug 28
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: CN¥0.01 loss per share (vs CN¥0.005 profit in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: CN¥0.01 loss per share (down from CN¥0.005 profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥247.3m (down 26% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: CN¥6.55m (down 296% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jun 28
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 28, 2024 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 28, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from CN¥1.68b to CN¥1.71b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.15 to CN¥0.13 per share. Net income forecast to grow 248% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Beverage industry in China. Consensus price target up from CN¥17.04 to CN¥17.77. Share price was steady at CN¥15.35 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥1.97b to CN¥1.80b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.24 per share to CN¥0.215 per share. Net income forecast to grow 379% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Beverage industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥17.04 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.0% to CN¥15.82 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.027 (vs CN¥0.063 loss in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.027 (up from CN¥0.063 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥419.4m (down 3.0% from 1Q 2023). Net income: CN¥17.6m (up CN¥58.8m from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 34% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 01
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 07, 2024 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 07, 2024, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: The Company's Meeting Room, Kunming, Yunnan China Reported Earnings • Apr 16
Full year 2023 earnings released: CN¥0.03 loss per share (vs CN¥0.28 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: CN¥0.03 loss per share (improved from CN¥0.28 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥1.47b (up 24% from FY 2022). Net loss: CN¥22.1m (loss narrowed 88% from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 32% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Mar 29
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 30, 2024 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 30, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 05
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 47% to CN¥12.49. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥16.13, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 10% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 40%. Announcement • Dec 30
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Apr 30, 2024 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Apr 30, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.004 (vs CN¥0.12 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.004 (up from CN¥0.12 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥305.3m (up 43% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CN¥2.96m (up CN¥83.5m from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 33% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 43% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Sep 30
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 28, 2023 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 28, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.005 (vs CN¥0.065 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.005 (up from CN¥0.065 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥335.3m (up 31% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CN¥3.35m (up CN¥45.9m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 37% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 50% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2023 earnings released: CN¥0.063 loss per share (vs CN¥0.019 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: CN¥0.063 loss per share (further deteriorated from CN¥0.019 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥432.5m (up 26% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: CN¥41.2m (loss widened 228% from 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 35% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Beverage industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 71% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 12 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (6 non-independent directors). Chairman of the Board of Directors Zhong-Wei Ning was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: CN¥0.12 loss per share (vs CN¥0.071 loss in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: CN¥0.12 loss per share (further deteriorated from CN¥0.071 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥213.1m (down 19% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: CN¥80.6m (loss widened 73% from 3Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 51% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Sep 02
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: CN¥0.065 loss per share (vs CN¥0.075 loss in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: CN¥0.065 loss per share (up from CN¥0.075 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥256.9m (up 2.6% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: CN¥42.5m (loss narrowed 13% from 2Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 56% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2022 earnings released: CN¥0.019 loss per share (vs CN¥0.074 loss in 1Q 2021) First quarter 2022 results: CN¥0.019 loss per share (up from CN¥0.074 loss in 1Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥344.6m (up 17% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: CN¥12.5m (loss narrowed 74% from 1Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 61% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 12 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (6 non-independent directors). Chairman of the Board of Directors Zhong-Wei Ning was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 03
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: CN¥0.071 loss per share (vs CN¥0.077 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a solid third quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥261.8m (up 3.2% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: CN¥46.5m (loss narrowed 8.1% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 53% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: CN¥0.075 loss per share (vs CN¥0.043 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a soft second quarter result with increased losses and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥250.4m (up 16% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: CN¥49.1m (loss widened 74% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 35% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2021 earnings released: CN¥0.074 loss per share (vs CN¥0.04 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a mediocre first quarter result with increased losses and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥294.4m (up 52% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: CN¥48.6m (loss widened 86% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 50% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 28% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 15
New 90-day high: CN¥12.94 The company is up 96% from its price of CN¥6.59 on 16 September 2020. The Chinese market is up 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Beverage industry, which is up 15% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 04
New 90-day high: CN¥7.43 The company is up 7.0% from its price of CN¥6.92 on 06 August 2020. The Chinese market is down 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Beverage industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total losses of CN¥237.9m, with earnings decreasing by CN¥264.0m from the prior year. Total revenue was CN¥884.3m over the last 12 months, down 27% from the prior year. Announcement • Oct 29
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2020 Results on Oct 31, 2020 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2020 results on Oct 31, 2020 Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 25
New 90-day low: CN¥6.15 The company is down 1.0% from its price of CN¥6.20 on 24 June 2020. The Chinese market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Beverage industry, which is up 19% over the same period. Announcement • Jul 17
Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Aug 29, 2020 Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co., Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2020 results on Aug 29, 2020