Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 18
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to Mex$1,350, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 275% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2026 earnings released First quarter 2026 results: Revenue: US$865.0m (up 97% from 1Q 2025). Net income: US$107.7m (up 30% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 13% (down from 19% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 24
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 42% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from US$8.15 to US$11.58. Revenue forecast steady at US$3.11b. Net income forecast to grow 19% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target up from Mex$1,453 to Mex$1,576. Share price rose 5.8% to Mex$1,228 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 30
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from US$2.94b to US$3.39b. EPS estimate unchanged from US$8.22 at last update. Oil and Gas industry in Mexico expected to see average net income growth of 6.7% next year. Consensus price target of Mex$1,511 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 15% to Mex$1,386 over the past week. Announcement • Mar 19
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 29, 2026 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results After-Market on Apr 29, 2026 Announcement • Mar 18
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2026 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Apr 28, 2026. Location: torre virreyes, pedregal no. 24, 24th floor, colonia molino del rey, miguel hidalgo, zip code 11040, mexico Mexico Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 18
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to Mex$1,220, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 276% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Mex$1,088 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 118% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from US$2.81b to US$2.94b. EPS estimate increased from US$3.77 to US$8.22 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 17% next year vs 3.9% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$1,415. Share price rose 2.9% to Mex$1,111 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$7.02 (up from US$4.98 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$2.47b (up 50% from FY 2024). Net income: US$719.1m (up 51% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 29% (in line with FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 42% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 29
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to Mex$1,040, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 259% over the past three years. Announcement • Jan 15
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 25, 2026 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results After-Market on Feb 25, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 19
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 37% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from US$2.35b to US$2.40b. EPS estimate increased from US$5.06 to US$6.93 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 16% next year vs 4.2% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico . Consensus price target up from Mex$1,174 to Mex$1,423. Share price was steady at Mex$933 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.3% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.1% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (39% accrual ratio). Minor Risk High level of debt (108% net debt to equity). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 29
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 33% After last week's 33% share price gain to Mex$869, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 225% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Oct 23
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$3.01 (vs US$1.73 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$3.01 (up from US$1.73 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$706.1m (up 53% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$315.3m (up 91% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 45% (up from 36% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 40% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Sep 16
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 22, 2025 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Oct 22, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Aug 21
Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock German Losada intends to sell 100k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 20th of August. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of Mex$752, it would amount to Mex$75m. As of today, German currently holds no shares directly (This sale likely refers to shares that have not yet been received). There have been no trades via on-market transactions or options from company insiders in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 35%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from US$2.39b to US$2.30b. EPS estimate rose from US$3.48 to US$4.70. Net income forecast to grow 3.7% next year vs 4.2% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target down from Mex$1,325 to Mex$1,298. Share price fell 7.9% to Mex$842 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 11
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$2.26 (vs US$1.44 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$2.26 (up from US$1.44 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$610.5m (up 54% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$235.3m (up 69% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 39% (up from 35% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 78% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 11
Vista Energy, S.A.B. De C.V. Reports Impairment Charges for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2025 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. reported impairment charges for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. For the quarter, the company reported impairment of long-lived assets of USD 38,252,000. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from US$4.09 to US$3.48 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$2.41b. Net income forecast to grow 3.7% next year vs 4.2% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target down from Mex$1,390 to Mex$1,335. Share price fell 2.2% to Mex$890 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 11
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 10, 2025 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results at 3:00 PM, Central Standard Time on Jul 10, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 22
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to Mex$961. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$1,202, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 34%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 73% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 36% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from US$2.32b to US$2.40b. EPS estimate increased from US$3.70 to US$4.13 per share. Net income forecast to grow 5.6% next year vs 3.6% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target up from Mex$1,197 to Mex$1,423. Share price rose 2.0% to Mex$998 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 02
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from US$2.08b to US$2.32b. EPS estimate unchanged from US$3.70 at last update. Oil and Gas industry in Mexico expected to see average net income decline 6.4% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$1,211. Share price fell 7.6% to Mex$866 over the past week. Board Change • May 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Gerard Martellozo was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Apr 11
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$4.98 (up from US$4.24 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$1.65b (up 41% from FY 2023). Net income: US$477.5m (up 20% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 29% (down from 34% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 43% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 63% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Apr 04
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 8.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (29% accrual ratio). Minor Risk High level of debt (42% net debt to equity). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to Mex$800, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 325% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 10
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to Mex$875, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 400% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 04
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to Mex$975. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$1,271, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 22% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 43%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 17% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$4.98 (up from US$4.24 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$1.65b (up 41% from FY 2023). Net income: US$477.5m (up 20% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 29% (down from 34% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 43% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 79% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 27
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Apr 09, 2025 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Apr 09, 2025. Location: at torre virreyes, pedregal no. 24, 24th floor, colonia molino del rey, zip code 11040, miguel hidalgo, mexico Mexico Announcement • Jan 11
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 26, 2025 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Feb 26, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$1.73 (up from US$0.87 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$462.4m (up 60% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$165.5m (up 99% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 36% (up from 29% in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 23%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 55% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 91% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Sep 20
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 23, 2024 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results After-Market on Oct 23, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from US$1.65b to US$1.63b. EPS estimate also fell from US$5.87 per share to US$5.13 per share. Net income forecast to grow 25% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$1,431. Share price was steady at Mex$919 over the past week. New Risk • Jul 21
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 6.1% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.1% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (27% accrual ratio). Minor Risk High level of debt (41% net debt to equity). Reported Earnings • Jul 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$1.44 (vs US$0.55 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$1.44 (up from US$0.55 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$396.7m (up 72% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$139.6m (up 168% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 35% (up from 23% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 66% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 121% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Jun 06
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 11, 2024 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results at 3:00 PM, Central Standard Time on Jul 11, 2024 Reported Earnings • Apr 25
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.82 (vs US$1.43 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.82 (down from US$1.43 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$317.4m (up 4.7% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$78.7m (down 39% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 25% (down from 43% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 80% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 139% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 26
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 24, 2024 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results at 3:00 PM, Central Standard Time on Apr 24, 2024 Announcement • Mar 12
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Apr 23, 2024 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Apr 23, 2024, at 16:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Location: meeting room located at Torre Virreyes, Pedregal No. 24, 24 Floor Colonia Molino del Rey, Zip Code 11040, Miguel Hidalgo Mexico United States Agenda: To approve the Company's Chief Executive Officer report prepared in accordance with article172 of the LGSM and articles 28, section IV and 44, section XI of the Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores; LMV ), same which includes the presentation of the individual and consolidated financial statements of the Company; to approve the Company's Board of Directors report of the LGSM, on the main accounting and reporting policies and criteria used by the Company in the preparation of its financial information; and to discuss other matters. Reported Earnings • Feb 22
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$4.24 (vs US$3.07 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$4.24 (up from US$3.07 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$1.17b (up 2.2% from FY 2022). Net income: US$397.0m (up 47% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 34% (up from 24% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Oil reserves Proven reserves: 269.5 MMbbls Gas reserves Proven reserves: 293.4 Bcf Combined production Oil equivalent production: 18.669 MMboe (17.7 MMboe in FY 2022) Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 96% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 123% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Jan 12
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 20, 2024 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results After-Market on Feb 20, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 24
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to Mex$544, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 8.9x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 982% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 01
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to Mex$471, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 7.3x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 903% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Oct 25
Third quarter 2023 earnings released Third quarter 2023 results: Revenue: US$289.7m (down 13% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$83.1m (up 8.4% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 29% (up from 23% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to Mex$541, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 8.7x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 974% over the past three years. Announcement • Sep 20
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 24, 2023 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 24, 2023 Announcement • Jul 15
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2023 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. provided production guidance for the year 2023. For the year, the company expects production of 55,000 barrels of oil per day. New Risk • Jul 15
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 22% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.2% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (22% accrual ratio). Minor Risks High level of debt (42% net debt to equity). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (10% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Jul 14
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.55 (vs US$1.15 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.55 (down from US$1.15 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$231.0m (down 22% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$52.2m (down 49% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 23% (down from 35% in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 118% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 84% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 12
Vista Energy, S.A.B. De C.V. Announces Successful Results in Wells Am-1011H and Am-1012H in Pad Am-1, Located in Águila Mora Block Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced successful results in wells AM-1011h and AM-1012h in pad AM-1, located in Águila Mora block (see map below). Well AM-1011h was landed in La Cocina, with a lateral length of 2,548 meters and 44 completion stages. Well AM-1012h was landed in the Middle Carbonate, with a lateral length of 2,468 meters and 43 completion stages. The peak production of well AM-1011h was 2,107 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), while the peak production of well AM-1012h was 1,699 boe/d. Both wells are currently restricted by gas evacuation capacity, limiting well productivity. Additionally, the cumulative production of well AM-1011h for the first 60 days was 79.7 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe), whereas the cumulative production of well AM-1012h was 70.2 Mboe for the first 60 days, in both cases on a normalized basis (normalized to 47 completion stages). The average oil content of the wells was 71% of total hydrocarbons. Based on the successful results of these wells, the Company has estimated an inventory in Águila Mora of up to 100 ready-to-drill wells. The Águila Mora unconventional concession is in the light oil window of Vaca Muerta, covering a surface area of 23,475 gross acres. Lab analysis conducted on the oil recovered from the wells revealed an API gravity of 40 degrees. The block is operated by Vista, which owns a 90% working interest. Gas y Petróleo del Neuquén S.A. (“GyP”), the state-owned oil and gas company of the Province of Neuquén, owns the remaining 10%. In mid-April 2023, the Company tied-in well BPE-2202h, in the southern part of the Bajada del Palo Este block (see map below). The well was landed in La Cocina, with a lateral length of 2,272 meters and 47 completion stages. IP-30 production of the well BPE-2202h was 3,101 boe/d, whereas daily peak production was 3,427 boe/d. Additionally, the cumulative production of the well for the first 80 days was 179.9 Mboe, on a normalized basis. The average oil content of the well was 96% of total hydrocarbons. Successful results in BPE-2202h have enabled Vista to reconfirm the addition of up to 150 ready-to-drill wells to the inventory of the block. They have also enabled the Company to validate its geological model for Coirón Amargo Norte, which is the neighboring block to the south (shown on the map above), covering a surface area of 26,598 gross acres. Coirón Amargo Norte is a conventional concession where the Company holds an 85% working interest, with the remaining 15% held by GyP. Vista’s model indicates the Company has an inventory of up to 50 ready-to-drill wells in this block. Announcement • Jun 09
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 13, 2023 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results at 3:00 PM, Central Standard Time on Jul 13, 2023 Buying Opportunity • May 12
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 13%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$467, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 52% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 10% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 13% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$3.07 (vs US$0.57 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$3.07 (up from US$0.57 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$1.14b (up 75% from FY 2021). Net income: US$269.5m (up 432% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 24% (up from 7.8% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Oil reserves and sales price Proven reserves: 208 MMbbls Average sales price/bbl (hedged): US$72.30 Gas reserves and sales price Proven reserves: 244.9 Bcf Average sales price/mcf (hedged): US$4.08 LNG sales price Average sales price/bbl (hedged): US$51.43 Combined production and costs Oil equivalent production: 17.7 MMboe (14.2 MMboe in FY 2021) Average production cost/Boe: US$7.50 (US$7.60/Boe in FY 2021) Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 115% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 84% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Apr 14
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 23%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$487, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 46% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 11% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 16% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 08
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$1.32b to US$1.34b. EPS estimate increased from US$3.71 to US$4.42 per share. Net income forecast to grow 36% next year vs 40% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Mexico. Consensus price target up from Mex$317 to Mex$418. Share price rose 2.7% to Mex$380 over the past week. 
