New Risk • Apr 09
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 21% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (21% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Announcement • Mar 02
Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 23, 2026 Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 23, 2026. Location: camara de comercio de guadalajara, guadalajara Mexico Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$10.28 (vs Mex$10.90 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$10.28 (down from Mex$10.90 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$32.9b (up 11% from 3Q 2024). Net income: Mex$1.05b (down 5.6% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 3.8% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$12.06 (vs Mex$11.83 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$12.06 (up from Mex$11.83 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$32.8b (up 11% from 2Q 2024). Net income: Mex$1.24b (up 1.9% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 4.1% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 20% per year. New Risk • Jul 16
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 5.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (29% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.0% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$12.97 (vs Mex$12.01 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$12.97 (up from Mex$12.01 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$32.4b (up 8.0% from 1Q 2024). Net income: Mex$1.33b (up 8.0% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.1% (in line with 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 8.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Apr 18
Dividend increased to Mex$14.30 Dividend of Mex$14.30 is 10% higher than last year. Ex-date: 25th April 2025 Payment date: 28th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (27% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (123% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 27% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. Earnings per share has grown by 25% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Apr 16
Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V. announces Annual dividend, payable on April 28, 2025 Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V. announced Annual dividend of MXN 14.3000 per share payable on April 28, 2025, ex-date on April 25, 2025 and record date on April 25, 2025. New Risk • Mar 22
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 22% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (22% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.8% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 31
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to Mex$700, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 13.7x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Total returns to shareholders of 125% over the past three years. New Risk • Dec 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 5.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 26
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to Mex$680, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 13.3x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Total returns to shareholders of 124% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$10.90 (vs Mex$11.64 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$10.90 (down from Mex$11.64 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$29.6b (up 8.8% from 3Q 2023). Net income: Mex$1.12b (down 6.4% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 4.4% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 39% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 26
Now 24% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 11% to Mex$955. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$1,258, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 23% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 29% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jul 29
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$11.83 (vs Mex$10.09 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$11.83 (up from Mex$10.09 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$29.5b (up 8.8% from 2Q 2023). Net income: Mex$1.21b (up 17% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.1% (up from 3.8% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 44% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 08
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 44% to Mex$820. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$679, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 24%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.5% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 7.9% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Apr 23
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: Mex$43.87 (vs Mex$30.98 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: Mex$43.87 (up from Mex$30.98 in FY 2022). Revenue: Mex$109.4b (up 12% from FY 2022). Net income: Mex$4.50b (up 42% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.1% (up from 3.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 38% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Mar 27
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 4.8% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 22
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 30% to Mex$610. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$503, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 23%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 16% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 9.6% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 02
Now 26% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 27% to Mex$594. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$472, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 23%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 16% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 9.6% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: Mex$11.64 (up from Mex$8.02 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$27.3b (up 12% from 3Q 2022). Net income: Mex$1.19b (up 45% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.4% (up from 3.4% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 30%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.8% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 29% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: Mex$10.09 (up from Mex$7.39 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$27.1b (up 14% from 2Q 2022). Net income: Mex$1.04b (up 36% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.8% (up from 3.2% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.4% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 06
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to Mex$416, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Total returns to shareholders of 88% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Mar 03
Price target increased by 14% to Mex$470 Up from Mex$412, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of Mex$416. Stock is up 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$33.42 for next year compared to Mex$30.89 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 02
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: Mex$30.90 (vs Mex$25.55 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: Mex$30.90 (up from Mex$25.55 in FY 2021). Revenue: Mex$97.9b (up 16% from FY 2021). Net income: Mex$3.17b (up 21% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from 3.1% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 17% per year. Buying Opportunity • Jan 26
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 7.3%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$427, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 21%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 21% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 14% in the next 2 years. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 12 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (5 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: Mex$8.02 (up from Mex$6.60 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: Mex$24.5b (up 9.9% from 3Q 2021). Net income: Mex$822.8m (up 22% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.4% (up from 3.0% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Jul 29
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: Mex$7.39 (vs Mex$6.03 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: Mex$7.39 (up from Mex$6.03 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: Mex$23.8b (up 18% from 2Q 2021). Net income: Mex$758.7m (up 23% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from 3.1% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.6%, compared to a 9.2% growth forecast for the industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: Mex$23.5b (up 15% from 1Q 2021). Net income: Mex$748.9m (up 20% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from 3.0% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.5%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 7.6%, compared to a 9.9% growth forecast for the industry in Mexico. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 12 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (5 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 15
Upcoming dividend of Mex$10.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 April 2022. Payment date: 26 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.0%). Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: Mex$25.56 (up from Mex$19.79 in FY 2020). Revenue: Mex$84.8b (up 16% from FY 2020). Net income: Mex$2.62b (up 29% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from 2.8% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 9.4%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 6.1%, compared to a 8.7% growth forecast for the retail industry in Mexico. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS Mex$6.03 (vs Mex$4.22 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: Mex$20.2b (up 20% from 2Q 2020). Net income: Mex$618.9m (up 43% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from 2.6% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jun 11
Fotosistemas Especializados acquired Farmacia Guadalajara, S.A de C.V from Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:FRAGUA B). Fotosistemas Especializados acquired Farmacia Guadalajara, S.A de C.V from Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:FRAGUA B) on June 9, 2021.
Fotosistemas Especializados completed the acquisition of Farmacia Guadalajara, S.A de C.V from Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:FRAGUA B) on June 9, 2021. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 26
Upcoming dividend of Mex$9.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 April 2021. Payment date: 04 May 2021. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (4.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Reported Earnings • Mar 04
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS Mex$20.92 (vs Mex$16.67 in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: Mex$73.3b (up 19% from FY 2019). Net income: Mex$2.04b (up 19% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 2.8% (in line with FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 04
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.3%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 6.3%, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Mexico. Price Target Changed • Feb 12
Price target raised to Mex$320 Up from Mex$285, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is 8.8% above the current share price of Mex$294. As of last close, the stock is up 23% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 29
New 90-day high: Mex$275 The company is up 26% from its price of Mex$218 on 28 October 2020. The Mexican market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Retailing industry, which is up 17% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 30
New 90-day high: Mex$273 The company is up 24% from its price of Mex$220 on 28 September 2020. The Mexican market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Consumer Retailing industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 04
New 90-day high: Mex$250 The company is up 10.0% from its price of Mex$226 on 04 September 2020. The Mexican market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Consumer Retailing industry, which is also up 10.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 13
New 90-day high: Mex$227 The company is up 1.0% from its price of Mex$225 on 14 August 2020. The Mexican market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Consumer Retailing industry, which is down 5.0% over the same period. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 01
Third-quarter earnings released: Revenue beats expectations Third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 14% at Mex$19.1b. Reported Earnings • Nov 01
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of Mex$1.97b, up 21% from the prior year. Total revenue was Mex$69.6b over the last 12 months, up 16% from the prior year.