Costco Wholesale Corporation

NasdaqGS:COST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$409.0b

Costco Wholesale Valuation

Is COST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$1.01k
Fair Value
8.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
31
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: COST ($927.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1009.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COST is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COST?

Key metric: As COST is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for COST. This is calculated by dividing COST's market cap by their current earnings.
What is COST's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio54.3x
EarningsUS$7.58b
Market CapUS$409.00b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.4x
WMT Walmart
37.5x9.8%US$729.5b
TGT Target
14.5x4.5%US$63.8b
DG Dollar General
11.8x6.7%US$16.3b
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings
21.9x7.1%US$12.0b
COST Costco Wholesale
54.3x8.3%US$409.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.3x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
COST 54.3xIndustry Avg. 26.2xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.3x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (26.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio54.3x
Fair PE Ratio37.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$927.37
US$1,018.24
+9.8%
11.8%US$1,175.00US$560.00n/a31
Jan ’26US$916.27
US$1,024.24
+11.8%
11.2%US$1,175.00US$560.00n/a31
Dec ’25US$971.88
US$939.89
-3.3%
10.9%US$1,075.00US$540.00n/a32
Nov ’25US$877.31
US$933.49
+6.4%
10.4%US$1,065.00US$540.00n/a32
Oct ’25US$877.38
US$924.92
+5.4%
10.6%US$1,050.00US$510.00n/a31
Sep ’25US$892.38
US$881.58
-1.2%
11.2%US$1,050.00US$510.00n/a30
Aug ’25US$816.89
US$882.61
+8.0%
11.3%US$1,050.00US$510.00n/a30
Jul ’25US$845.67
US$844.19
-0.2%
10.4%US$975.00US$510.00n/a30
Jun ’25US$809.89
US$823.86
+1.7%
9.9%US$940.00US$500.00n/a30
May ’25US$722.22
US$776.41
+7.5%
9.4%US$870.00US$500.00n/a31
Apr ’25US$721.24
US$760.99
+5.5%
12.4%US$905.00US$500.00n/a32
Mar ’25US$749.44
US$707.52
-5.6%
11.5%US$825.00US$480.00n/a33
Feb ’25US$704.48
US$670.19
-4.9%
10.3%US$782.00US$480.00n/a33
Jan ’25US$660.08
US$659.42
-0.1%
9.9%US$745.00US$480.00US$916.2734
Dec ’24US$596.25
US$602.67
+1.1%
7.9%US$680.00US$460.00US$971.8833
Nov ’24US$556.80
US$592.82
+6.5%
7.8%US$680.00US$460.00US$877.3133
Oct ’24US$564.96
US$586.62
+3.8%
8.3%US$680.00US$450.00US$877.3833
Sep ’24US$544.25
US$569.06
+4.6%
8.7%US$651.00US$478.00US$892.3832
Aug ’24US$555.47
US$553.44
-0.4%
7.6%US$635.00US$475.00US$816.8932
Jul ’24US$538.38
US$548.75
+1.9%
7.0%US$635.00US$475.00US$845.6732
Jun ’24US$512.60
US$546.16
+6.5%
6.9%US$635.00US$475.00US$809.8931
May ’24US$493.59
US$548.35
+11.1%
7.2%US$635.00US$475.00US$722.2231
Apr ’24US$496.87
US$546.88
+10.1%
7.3%US$635.00US$475.00US$721.2432
Mar ’24US$478.67
US$550.74
+15.1%
8.0%US$635.00US$472.00US$749.4431
Feb ’24US$517.91
US$551.43
+6.5%
8.3%US$635.00US$450.00US$704.4830
Jan ’24US$456.50
US$548.13
+20.1%
8.9%US$650.00US$450.00US$660.0830
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 31 Analysts
US$1.02k
Fair Value
8.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
31
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/08 22:36
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/08 00:00
Earnings2024/11/24
Annual Earnings2024/09/01

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Costco Wholesale Corporation is covered by 70 analysts. 33 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
Peter BenedictBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research