Xero Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Xero is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 30.4% and 16.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 30.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.5% in 3 years.
Key information
30.4%
Earnings growth rate
30.76%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 26.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 16.2% |
| Future return on equity | 10.54% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 01 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 03
XRO: AI And Melio Integration Will Support Stronger Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their Xero price target from A$230.38 to A$203.09 as they factor in adjusted assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Xero reported FY26 operating revenue of about $2.75b to $2.8b, with US performance supported by the Melio acquisition and contributing to a very large uplift in US revenue and more than 110,000 new US customers.Analysis Article • May 20
There May Be Some Bright Spots In Xero's (ASX:XRO) Earnings
Soft earnings didn't appear to concern Xero Limited's ( ASX:XRO ) shareholders over the last week. We think that the...
Narrative Update • May 19
XRO: AI Partnerships And Automation Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have reduced their Xero price target by A$5.51, reflecting slightly revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E. What's in the News Xero launched XeroForce, a natural language AI agent builder aimed at helping small businesses and accountants automate finance and compliance workflows across Xero and connected third party apps, with an alpha release available to invite only customers and wider rollout planned later in the year (Product announcement).Analysis Article • May 15
Analysts Are Updating Their Xero Limited (ASX:XRO) Estimates After Its Annual Results
Last week, you might have seen that Xero Limited ( ASX:XRO ) released its yearly result to the market. The early...
Narrative Update • May 12
Xero Will Thrive as AI Becomes a Friend Rather than a Foe
Concerns over the quality and moats of SaaS businesses in the face of new AI threats will pressure Xero to demonstrate greater near term profitability, even if that sacrifices some long term growth ambition. This change will likely benefit Xero more than its current competitors as, like the Warren Buffett quote, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked".Narrative Update • May 03
XRO: AI Partnership And Automation Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Xero from A$154.27 to A$134.79, reflecting updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Xero and Anthropic agreed a multi year partnership that will bring Claude AI directly into Xero and Xero financial data and tools into Claude.ai, aiming to give small businesses and their advisors real time financial intelligence and end to end financial workflows at scale (Client Announcements).
Narrative Update • Apr 19
XRO: AI Partnership And Upgrade Will Shape Future Earnings And Execution Risk
Analysts have trimmed their Xero price target by about A$1 to around A$83.66, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate, modest adjustments to long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and updated long run P/E expectations following recent research, including an upgrade from RBC Capital. Analyst Commentary Even with the recent upgrade, the latest research around Xero still includes a clear set of caution flags that readers should keep in mind when thinking about risk and return.Narrative Update • Apr 05
XRO: AI Partnerships Will Support Future Earnings Despite Ongoing Execution Risks
Analysts have modestly lifted their Xero price target to A$83.66 from A$82.74, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple following recent research, including an upgrade at RBC Capital. Analyst Commentary Even with the upgraded price target, recent commentary shows that not all experts are fully comfortable with the current set up for Xero.Narrative Update • Mar 22
XRO: Execution On Cloud Platform And AI Analytics Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their Xero fair value estimate slightly lower, with the target moving by A$0.67 to A$154.27, citing updated views reflected in recent research such as the RBC Capital upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentaries around the upgrade case focus on how Xero is executing against expectations and how that feeds into the A$154.27 fair value estimate, rather than on any dramatic shift in near term fundamentals.Narrative Update • Mar 07
XRO: Reset Expectations And AI Expansion Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their Xero price target to about A$155 from roughly A$182, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate, growth, margins and future P/E that also supported a recent upgrade in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary around Xero has focused on how the trimmed A$155 price target lines up with updated views on valuation, growth and execution, alongside the upgrade in formal research coverage.Narrative Update • Feb 21
XRO: Fair Outlook Will Balance AI Upside With Execution And Pricing Risks
Analysts have reduced their price target on Xero from about A$109.01 to about A$82.74, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and P/E multiples, supported by recent Street research including the upgrade from RBC Capital. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a mixed setup for Xero, with the reduced price target pointing to more conservative expectations around growth, profitability and valuation.Analysis Article • Feb 08
What You Can Learn From Xero Limited's (ASX:XRO) P/E After Its 25% Share Price Crash
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Xero Limited ( ASX:XRO ) share price has dived 25% in the last thirty days...Narrative Update • Feb 07
XRO: AI Analytics And RBC Upgrade Will Support Stronger Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their Xero fair value estimate slightly higher to about A$230 per share, reflecting updated assumptions around growth, margins and future P/E multiples following recent positive research commentary and upgrades. Analyst Commentary Recent research has generally framed Xero as a high quality growth platform with room for further execution, particularly around monetisation and operating discipline.Narrative Update • Jan 24
XRO: AI Analytics Rollout Will Support Stronger Future Share Performance
Analysts now see slightly lower fair value for Xero, trimming their price target by about A$1 to reflect a marginally reduced future P/E assumption, while also factoring in small adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin expectations. What's in the News Xero rolled out new AI-powered analytics globally, giving millions of small business customers access to analytics, insights, and reporting directly within the platform (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 09
XRO: Higher Revenue Outlook Will Be Balanced By Thinner Margins
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Xero from A$134.61 to A$109.01, linking this change to updated assumptions that combine higher expected revenue growth with a lower profit margin profile and a higher future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair value estimate reduced from A$134.61 to A$109.01, reflecting updated assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 25
XRO: Higher Future Earnings Multiple Will Support Stronger Share Performance
Analysts have lowered their price target on Xero from approximately $240 to $231 per share. This reflects a higher assumed discount rate and a more conservative profit margin outlook, partially offset by stronger projected revenue growth and a higher future price-to-earnings multiple.Analysis Article • Dec 17
Is Xero (ASX:XRO) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Narrative Update • Dec 11
XRO: Stable Margins And Richer Earnings Multiple Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Xero, citing slightly higher long term discount rate assumptions and a marginally richer future earnings multiple that together support a refined fair value estimate near $182 per share. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at A$182.05 per share, indicating the updated assumptions broadly offset each other in the model.Narrative Update • Nov 27
XRO: Expanding Profit Margins And Stronger Earnings Forecast Will Drive Further Upside
Analysts have revised Xero’s fair value estimate downward from $191.59 to $182.05. They cite updated assumptions around revenue growth and discount rates as the rationale for the change.Narrative Update • Nov 05
XRO: Higher Profit Margins And Lower Discount Rate Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have slightly reduced their fair value estimate for Xero by $0.78. The new estimate is $191.59, with the update attributed to marginal adjustments in discount rate and profitability projections.Analysis Article • Nov 03
Getting In Cheap On Xero Limited (ASX:XRO) Is Unlikely
You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 13.4x Xero Limited ( ASX:XRO ) is a stock to avoid...Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Adjust Xero Price Target Amid Profit Margin Pressures and Revised Growth Forecasts
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Xero from $192.66 to $192.36. They cite updated assumptions about profit margins and forecast revenue growth as the reason for this change.Narrative Update • Oct 08
AI Features And US Expansion Will Improve User Satisfaction And Retention
Xero Analyst Price Target Updated Following Revised Growth and Margin Outlook Analysts have adjusted Xero's fair value price target downward from $195.25 to $192.66. This reflects expectations for higher revenue growth, but slightly reduced profit margins and a higher future price-to-earnings ratio.Analysis Article • Sep 06
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Xero (ASX:XRO) Presents An Opportunity
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Narrative Update • Sep 04
AI Features And US Expansion Will Improve User Satisfaction And Retention
The consensus analyst price target for Xero was essentially unchanged, as a substantial decline in the company’s future P/E ratio was offset by a stable net profit margin, resulting in only a marginal increase in fair value from A$195.21 to A$195.25. What's in the News Xero completed a follow-on equity offering of AUD 129.5 million, issuing 741,538 ordinary shares at AUD 174.67 per share via Regulation S.Analysis Article • Jul 01
When Should You Buy Xero Limited (ASX:XRO)?
Let's talk about the popular Xero Limited ( ASX:XRO ). The company's shares saw a significant share price rise of 28...
New Narrative • Nov 24
Innovative AI Features And Strategic Acquisitions Set The Path For Future Revenue Growth
Expanded service features and strategic acquisitions aim to boost revenue through enhanced user satisfaction and retention.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2029 | 5,234 | 643 | 954 | 1,575 | 13 |
| 3/31/2028 | 4,429 | 409 | 651 | 1,271 | 14 |
| 3/31/2027 | 3,666 | 230 | 432 | 982 | 14 |
| 3/31/2026 | 2,753 | 167 | 502 | 933 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 2,527 | 217 | 557 | 949 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 2,301 | 268 | 613 | 964 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 2,202 | 248 | 561 | 888 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 2,103 | 228 | 509 | 812 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,006 | 222 | 477 | 766 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 1,910 | 216 | 446 | 721 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 1,812 | 195 | 395 | 656 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 1,714 | 175 | 343 | 592 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1,627 | 66 | 269 | 526 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,541 | -43 | 194 | 461 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 1,470 | -78 | 149 | 426 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 1,400 | -114 | 105 | 390 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 1,325 | -66 | 55 | 329 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,250 | -19 | 5 | 268 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,173 | -14 | 0 | 252 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 1,097 | -9 | -4 | 236 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 1,021 | -15 | 4 | 228 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 945 | -21 | 11 | 220 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 897 | 0 | 34 | 219 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 849 | 20 | 57 | 219 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 819 | 28 | 67 | 220 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 789 | 36 | 77 | 222 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 754 | 20 | 52 | 194 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 718 | 3 | 28 | 167 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 677 | 3 | N/A | 158 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 635 | 3 | N/A | 150 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 594 | -12 | N/A | 132 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 553 | -27 | N/A | 114 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 514 | -31 | N/A | 98 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 475 | -34 | N/A | 82 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 441 | -29 | N/A | 72 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 407 | -25 | N/A | 61 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 376 | -35 | N/A | 43 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 346 | -45 | N/A | 24 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 321 | -57 | N/A | 10 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 295 | -69 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 274 | -76 | N/A | -15 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 252 | -82 | N/A | -25 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 229 | -82 | N/A | -30 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 207 | -82 | N/A | -35 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 185 | -86 | N/A | -39 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 162 | -89 | N/A | -44 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 143 | -79 | N/A | -41 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: XRO's forecast earnings growth (30.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).
Earnings vs Market: XRO's earnings (30.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: XRO's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: XRO's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.2% per year).
High Growth Revenue: XRO's revenue (16.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: XRO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/07 16:26 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Xero Limited is covered by 24 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Nicholas McGarrigle | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Eric Choi | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Aryan Norozi | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |