Asia Aviation Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Asia Aviation is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 62.9% and 6.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 65.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 25.6% in 3 years.

Key information

62.9%

Earnings growth rate

65.8%

EPS growth rate

Airlines earnings growth	11.0%
Revenue growth rate	6.5%
Future return on equity	25.6%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	18 Jun 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SET:AAV - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (THB Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	55,680	3,345	8,221	9,957	3
12/31/2025	52,991	3,003	4,555	8,883	4
12/31/2024	50,113	1,761	3,106	6,247	5
3/31/2024	46,410	-303	5,503	5,771	N/A
12/31/2023	42,207	466	5,937	6,239	N/A
9/30/2023	38,476	767	5,605	6,263	N/A
6/30/2023	33,470	-1,589	6,367	7,009	N/A
3/31/2023	25,829	-5,300	5,298	5,966	N/A
12/31/2022	17,868	-8,030	-32	564	N/A
9/30/2022	11,105	-12,137	-5,132	-5,006	N/A
6/30/2022	6,535	-10,185	-6,499	-6,411	N/A
3/31/2022	4,792	-7,153	-7,591	-7,532	N/A
12/31/2021	4,117	-6,647	-4,447	-4,347	N/A
9/30/2021	6,129	-6,769	-1,503	-1,222	N/A
6/30/2021	8,210	-6,508	-1,166	-564	N/A
3/31/2021	7,602	-5,957	-393	332	N/A
12/31/2020	14,360	-4,764	-1,721	-898	N/A
9/30/2020	20,745	-3,722	620	1,368	N/A
6/30/2020	27,761	-2,302	-260	276	N/A
3/31/2020	36,963	-1,643	-307	125	N/A
12/31/2019	40,181	-474	580	966	N/A
9/30/2019	40,062	-672	-187	190	N/A
6/30/2019	39,846	-613	-1,381	1,015	N/A
3/31/2019	39,540	-437	-1,078	1,340	N/A
12/31/2018	39,950	70	458	2,869	N/A
9/30/2018	40,077	815	-111	3,865	N/A
6/30/2018	39,867	1,435	2,954	4,939	N/A
3/31/2018	39,124	1,911	3,229	5,451	N/A
12/31/2017	36,960	1,477	N/A	5,105	N/A
9/30/2017	34,501	1,043	N/A	4,162	N/A
6/30/2017	33,653	1,179	N/A	3,743	N/A
3/31/2017	32,850	1,431	N/A	3,479	N/A
12/31/2016	32,401	1,869	N/A	4,382	N/A
9/30/2016	32,488	2,103	N/A	5,481	N/A
6/30/2016	31,597	1,798	N/A	5,915	N/A
3/31/2016	30,726	1,581	N/A	5,792	N/A
12/31/2015	29,507	1,078	N/A	4,074	N/A
9/30/2015	29,749	1,234	N/A	4,280	N/A
6/30/2015	28,054	933	N/A	3,496	N/A
3/31/2015	26,630	551	N/A	3,011	N/A
12/31/2014	25,356	183	N/A	1,849	N/A
9/30/2014	23,981	-24	N/A	715	N/A
6/30/2014	24,017	343	N/A	1,286	N/A
3/31/2014	23,916	784	N/A	2,174	N/A
12/31/2013	23,485	1,043	N/A	4,020	N/A
9/30/2013	22,605	1,193	N/A	4,540	N/A
6/30/2013	21,437	1,135	N/A	3,679	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAV is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AAV is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AAV is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AAV's revenue (6.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the TH market (6.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAV's revenue (6.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AAV's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.6%)

Asia Aviation Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded

Price target increased by 11% to ฿2.99

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18%

Price target increased by 7.5% to ฿2.69

Price target increased by 8.1% to ฿2.64

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to ฿0.12 loss

Recent updates

New major risk - Financial position

First quarter 2024 earnings released: ฿0.032 loss per share (vs ฿0.03 profit in 1Q 2023)

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded

Price target increased by 11% to ฿2.99

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18%

Price target increased by 7.5% to ฿2.69

Price target increased by 8.1% to ฿2.64

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 19, 2024

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.038 (vs ฿0.69 loss in FY 2022)

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited Announces Board and Committee Changes

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to ฿0.12 loss

New minor risk - Financial position

Price target decreased by 15% to ฿2.72

Price target increased by 8.0% to ฿3.58

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 13, 2023

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: ฿0.083 loss per share (vs ฿0.41 loss in 2Q 2022)

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited Announces Resignation of Anupan Tangphanitannan as Financial Controller

First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.029 (vs ฿0.21 loss in 1Q 2022)

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 11, 2023

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 23, 2023

Consensus forecasts updated

Third quarter 2022 earnings released: ฿345 loss per share (vs ฿0.43 loss in 3Q 2021)

Less than half of directors are independent

Second quarter 2022 earnings released: ฿0.41 loss per share (vs ฿0.35 loss in 2Q 2021)

Consensus forecasts updated

Now 20% undervalued

Consensus forecasts updated

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 50%

Consensus forecasts updated

Price target increased to ฿2.86

Less than half of directors are independent

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q1, 2022 Results on May 13, 2022

Consensus forecasts updated

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2022

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of THB 8.8 billion.

Price target increased to ฿2.84

Director Tanapat Ngamplang has left the company

Director of Business Development & Director M. L. Devakula has left the company

Third quarter 2021 earnings released: ฿0.43 loss per share (vs ฿0.38 loss in 3Q 2020)

Price target increased to ฿2.84

Second quarter 2021 earnings released: ฿0.35 loss per share (vs ฿0.23 loss in 2Q 2020)

Consensus revenue estimates fall to ฿6.15b

Consensus forecasts updated

First quarter 2021 earnings released: ฿0.38 loss per share (vs ฿0.14 loss in 1Q 2020)

Consensus forecasts updated

New 90-day high: ฿2.90

Full year 2020 earnings released: ฿0.98 loss per share (vs ฿0.098 loss in FY 2019)

Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints

Price target raised to ฿2.19

Analysts lower revenue estimates to ฿13.3b

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q2, 2021 Results on Aug 13, 2021

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Feb 25, 2021

New 90-day high: ฿2.12

Price target lowered to ฿1.98

Third quarter 2020 earnings released: ฿0.38 loss per share

New 90-day low: ฿1.55

New 90-day low: ฿1.75

Analysts lower revenue estimates to ฿17.4b

Price target raised to ฿2.24

Analysts update estimates

First half earnings released

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity