Major Estimate Revision • 19h
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from UK£100.6m to UK£101.7m. EPS estimate increased from UK£0.249 to UK£0.297 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 45% next year vs 33% decline forecast for Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target of UK£6.29 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 8.7% to UK£3.99 over the past week. Announcement • May 13
Frontier Developments plc Revises Earnings Guidance for the 12 Months Ending 31 May 2026 Frontier Developments plc revised earnings guidance for the 12 months ending 31 May 2026. The company has increased the Board's expectations for the fiscal year 2026 revenue to approximately £103 million, above previous guidance. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 26% After last week's 26% share price gain to UK£3.81, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 32% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£3.28 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 26
Founder recently sold UK£352k worth of stock On the 22nd of April, David Braben sold around 93k shares on-market at roughly UK£3.78 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger sale worth UK£7.0m. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£11m. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 24
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to UK£3.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 31% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£3.04 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 12
Founder recently sold UK£56k worth of stock On the 8th of April, David Braben sold around 15k shares on-market at roughly UK£3.70 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger sale worth UK£7.0m. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£11m. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 07
Founder recently sold UK£7.0m worth of stock On the 31st of March, David Braben sold around 20k shares on-market at roughly UK£351 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£11m. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 05
Founder recently sold UK£41k worth of stock On the 27th of February, David Braben sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly UK£4.07 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£3.4m. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 04
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from UK£0.213 to UK£0.242. Revenue forecast unchanged at UK£100.3m. Net income forecast to shrink 55% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target down from UK£6.22 to UK£6.08. Share price was steady at UK£3.86 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 26
Now 26% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 23% to UK£4.10. The fair value is estimated to be UK£3.26, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 6.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 61%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 3.3% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 52% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from UK£96.9m to UK£100.3m. EPS estimate fell from UK£0.27 to UK£0.213 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 55% next year vs 7.6% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target of UK£6.22 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 10% to UK£4.74 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 18
First half 2026 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.21 (vs UK£0.11 in 1H 2025) First half 2026 results: EPS: UK£0.21 (up from UK£0.11 in 1H 2025). Revenue: UK£59.6m (up 26% from 1H 2025). Net income: UK£8.01m (up 82% from 1H 2025). Profit margin: 13% (up from 9.3% in 1H 2025). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 2.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Jan 15
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 27% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Jan 14
Frontier Developments plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 Frontier Developments plc provided earnings guidance for the Fiscal year 2026. For the period, the company expects revenue of around £100 million. Announcement • Jan 08
Frontier Developments plc Announces Appointment of Johanna Mair Cooke as Director, Effective January 1, 2026 Frontier Developments plc announced appointment of Johanna Mair Cooke as Director, Effective January 1, 2026. Announcement • Dec 16
Frontier Developments plc to Report First Half, 2026 Results on Jan 14, 2026 Frontier Developments plc announced that they will report first half, 2026 results on Jan 14, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from UK£94.3m to UK£95.9m. EPS estimate increased from UK£0.189 to UK£0.214 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 44% next year vs 28% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target up from UK£4.55 to UK£5.35. Share price rose 6.9% to UK£5.57 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 06
Price target increased by 15% to UK£5.03 Up from UK£4.38, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 11% below last closing price of UK£5.63. Stock is up 139% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.20 for next year compared to UK£0.42 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to UK£4.93, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 63% over the past three years. Announcement • Oct 22
Frontier Developments plc in Collaboration with Universal Products & Experiences, Launches Jurassic World Evolution 3 Frontier Developments plc in collaboration with Universal Products & Experiences, launched Jurassic World Evolution 3, the highly anticipated third installment in the critically acclaimed game franchise. Arriving on PC, PlayStation®?5, and Xbox Series X|S, players can delve into a game franchise first that brings adorable juvenile dinosaurs and a comprehensive breeding system, take on an epic global campaign that spans multiple stunning locations around the world, and shape their parks like never before with powerful creative tools. new and aspiring park managers can take on the challenge of breeding and nurturing their very own dinosaurs, with over 85 awe-inspiring species available at launch. Exhibits bring more diversity to parks than ever, due to distinct male and female dimorphism and captivating juvenile, each with their own new social interactions and behaviours. The careful management of these majestic species will ensure herds can truly thrive, bringing more appeal for discerning guests - and therefore more money to invest and expand gameplay. Challenge mode provides further opportunities to hone park-management skills, breed robust new generations of dinosaurs and more. Sandbox mode is the ideal canvas for creatives to effortlessly craft jaw-dropping parks in spectacular detail with intuitive new tools and a wide range of scenery themes, alongside a new Island Generator feature which allows players to spawn an infinite number of unique maps for even more creativity. In another series first, cross-platform sharing allows players to easily showcase their parks, dinosaur enclosures and scenery creations with a global community via the in-game Frontier Workshop. With its endearing juvenile, awe-inspiring new attractions that allow guests to experience dinosaurs both up close and from new heights, an enchanting soundtrack built on and inspired by the iconic Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment film score, new ways to automate and master park management, stunning visuals, and much more, Jurassic World Evolution 3 presents players and film franchise fans with the ultimate dinosaur park simulation. Players looking to add even more excitement to their parks can do so with Jurassic World Evolution 3: Deluxe Edition, featuring four additional spectacular family units - Protoceratops, a diminutive herbivore characterised by its beak and neck frill;uanlong, an intimidating early relative of the tyrannosaurs which boasts plumes of feathers; Thanatosdrakon, a giant pterosaur; and Concavenator, a formidable aerodynamic hunter - alongside a collection of scenery inspired by the Clark County Campaign level, plus three exclusive ATV vehicle skins. Jurassic World Evolution 3 is available now on PC, PlayStation®? 5, and Xbox Series X| S for a suggested retail price of PS49.99 ($59.99/EUR59.99 for the standard edition, and PS64.99 ($74.99/EUR74.99 for the Deluxe Edition. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 08
Founder recently sold UK£206k worth of stock On the 3rd of October, David Braben sold around 44k shares on-market at roughly UK£4.63 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£2.8m. Announcement • Sep 26
Frontier Developments plc, Annual General Meeting, Oct 29, 2025 Frontier Developments plc, Annual General Meeting, Oct 29, 2025. Location: the trinity centre, 24 cambridge science park, milton road, cb4 0fn, cambridge United Kingdom Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 21
Founder recently sold UK£64k worth of stock On the 17th of September, David Braben sold around 16k shares on-market at roughly UK£4.08 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger sale worth UK£103k. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£1.8m. New Risk • Sep 15
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 46% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 15% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (UK£1.7m sold). Reported Earnings • Sep 11
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: UK£0.42 (up from UK£0.56 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: UK£90.6m (up 1.5% from FY 2024). Net income: UK£16.4m (up UK£37.9m from FY 2024). Profit margin: 18% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Sep 04
Price target increased by 12% to UK£3.81 Up from UK£3.40, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of UK£3.70. Stock is up 51% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.36 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.56 last year. Announcement • Sep 03
Frontier Developments plc to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Sep 10, 2025 Frontier Developments plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results at 6:00 AM, Coordinated Universal Time on Sep 10, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 06
Founder recently sold UK£56k worth of stock On the 4th of August, David Braben sold around 15k shares on-market at roughly UK£3.74 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£485k. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 30
Founder recently sold UK£103k worth of stock On the 25th of July, David Braben sold around 28k shares on-market at roughly UK£3.61 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. David has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by UK£446k. Price Target Changed • Jul 18
Price target increased by 11% to UK£3.58 Up from UK£3.22, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of UK£3.70. Stock is up 59% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.36 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.56 last year. Announcement • Jul 08
Frontier Developments plc (AIM:FDEV) announces an Equity Buyback for 3,947,854 shares, representing 10% for £10 million. Frontier Developments plc (AIM:FDEV) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 3,947,854 shares, representing 10% of its share capital for £10 million. The purpose of the buyback is to reduce the company's share capital. The Buyback will return surplus capital to shareholders, improve return on equity and increase earnings per share, while maintaining the financial headroom to invest in the Group's strategy to confidently deliver sustainable growth. The shares repurchased will be placed into treasury. The program will end on June 27, 2026 or, if the general authority for the Company to make market purchases of its own Ordinary Shares is not renewed at the 2025 AGM, at the conclusion of the 2025 AGM. As of July 8, 2025, the company has 39,478,535 Ordinary Shares. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to UK£2.94, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 79% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£1.45 per share. Announcement • Jun 11
Frontier Developments plc Announces Board Changes, Effective June 25, 2025 Frontier Developments plc has established an Executive Board has been established with effect from this month to further drive operational efficiency and streamline effective decision-making. Reporting directly to the Company's Board of Directors, the Executive Board includes the senior leaders from Development, Publishing, People, Operations, Finance and Legal, as well as the Chief Executive Officer, Jonny Watts. The Chief Operating Officer, James Dixon, will chair and supervise the new Executive Board. As a result of this, and his increased focus on Frontier's operating performance, James has stepped down from the Company's Board of Directors effective June 25, 2025. Announcement • Jun 09
Frontier Developments plc Announces Collaboration with Universal Products & Experiences to Launch Jurassic World Evolution 3 Frontier Developments plc in collaboration with Universal Products & Experiences, has announced that Jurassic World Evolution 3, the highly anticipated third instalment in the critically acclaimed game franchise, will be launching on 21 October 2025 on PC, PlayStation®?5, and Xbox Series X|S, and is available to pre-order now. For the first time, players can nurture juvenile dinosaurs as part of flourishing family units with a comprehensive breeding system, embark on an epic global campaign, and shape their ultimate park like never before. Jurassic World Evolution 3 pushes the boundaries of dinosaur park simulation, with over 80 awe-inspiring pre- historic species, 75 of which allow players to breed and nurture family units, each with distinct male and female dimorphism, and their endearing juvenile variants. Park guests will marvel as these majestic creatures socialise and react to the vibrant world around them, displaying new social interactions and behaviours. Both Jurassic World fanatics and seasoned park managers are invited to dive into the ultimate Jurassic World Evolution campaign, featuring a sprawling world map filled with diverse new locations like Japan and Hawaii-each offering varied challenges and spanning a thrilling original narrative. Jeff Goldblum reprises his role as the iconic Dr. Ian Malcolm alongside a cast of new and returning characters, as players balance competing human interests with the delicate integration of dinosaurs into the modern world. Powerful new tools provide a level of creative control never before seen in the Jurassic World Evolution game series, meaning it's never been easier to build jaw-dropping parks for master builders and novices alike. Players can effortlessly master intuitive terrain tools to create mountain peaks and vast canyons, use texture brushes to add variety to lush landscapes, and precisely place scenery to craft stunning parks and new attractions down to the finest detail, as they shape the legacy of their paradise. For the first time in the series, cross-platform sharing lets players showcase their parks, dinosaur enclosures, and scenery creations with a thriving global community via the Frontier Workshop. Players who pre-order will receive the Badlands Set at launch, which includes a collection of scenery items inspired by the original Jurassic Park film's iconic dig site, five scenery blueprints from the Montana Badlands, and an exclusive Badlands ATV skin for the Maintenance Team. New for Jurassic World Evolution 3, the Maintenance Team arm players with new tools to make sure their enclosures and facilities are running smoothly. Fans looking to expand their parks even further can purchase the Jurassic World Evolution 3: Deluxe Edition, featuring four additional spectacular family units - Protoceratops, a diminutive herbivore characterised by its beak and neck frill;uanlong, an intimidating early relative of the tyrannosaurs which boasts plumes of feathers; Thanatosdrakon, a giant pterosaur; and Concavenator, a formidable aerodynamic hunter - plus a collection of scenery items inspired from the Clark County, Campaign level, and three exclusive ATV vehicle skins. Announcement • May 28
Frontier Developments plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2025 Frontier Developments plc provided earnings guidance for the fiscal year 2025. For the year, the company expects revenue to be approximately £90 million (Fiscal year 24: £89.3 million), which is ahead of expectations through strong performances across Frontier's game portfolio. The better-than-expected revenue performance, further boosted with a gain of £3.5 million on the sale of the publishing rights for the Foundry game Stranded: Alien Dawn (which is not accounted for as revenue), will deliver stronger-than-expected profitability in fiscal year 2025 and a higher-than-expected cash position. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to UK£2.28, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 170x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 82% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£2.21 per share. Reported Earnings • Jan 16
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.11 (vs UK£0.86 loss in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: UK£0.11 (up from UK£0.86 loss in 1H 2024). Revenue: UK£47.3m (flat on 1H 2024). Net income: UK£4.40m (up UK£37.5m from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 9.3% (up from net loss in 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.5% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 47% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jan 15
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of British stocks, typically moving 8.1% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.1% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 123% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 15
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.4% to UK£2.33. The fair value is estimated to be UK£1.89, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 7.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 97% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Jan 09
Frontier Developments plc to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Jan 15, 2025 Frontier Developments plc announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Jan 15, 2025 New Risk • Dec 17
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: UK£78.2m (US$99.4m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.2% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£78.2m market cap, or US$99.4m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 29
Now 24% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 12% to UK£2.35. The fair value is estimated to be UK£1.90, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 97% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 30
Now 25% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.9% to UK£2.55. The fair value is estimated to be UK£2.03, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 97% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 08
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to UK£2.21. The fair value is estimated to be UK£2.81, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 100% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Sep 27
Frontier Developments plc, Annual General Meeting, Oct 30, 2024 Frontier Developments plc, Annual General Meeting, Oct 30, 2024. Location: the trinity centre, 24 cambridge science park, milton road, cb4 0fn, cambridge United Kingdom Major Estimate Revision • Sep 18
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 50% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from UK£86.8m to UK£88.3m. EPS estimate increased from -UK£0.055 per share to -UK£0.028 per share. Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 87% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£3.13. Share price rose 3.7% to UK£2.50 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 12
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: UK£0.56 loss per share (further deteriorated from UK£0.54 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: UK£89.3m (down 15% from FY 2023). Net loss: UK£21.5m (loss widened 2.7% from FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 50 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Aug 28
Frontier Developments plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Sep 11, 2024 Frontier Developments plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results at 6:00 AM, Coordinated Universal Time on Sep 11, 2024 Price Target Changed • May 06
Price target increased by 12% to UK£2.09 Up from UK£1.86, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 21% below last closing price of UK£2.65. Stock is down 49% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.60 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.54 last year. Board Change • Apr 25
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Senior Independent Non-Executive Director Leslie-Ann Reed was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Feb 06
Price target decreased by 22% to UK£1.85 Down from UK£2.38, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 28% above last closing price of UK£1.45. Stock is down 70% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.55 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.54 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 24
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -UK£0.438 to -UK£0.517 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at UK£84.1m. Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income decline 10% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£2.38. Share price rose 29% to UK£1.52 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 17
First half 2024 earnings released: UK£0.86 loss per share (vs UK£0.17 profit in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: UK£0.86 loss per share (down from UK£0.17 profit in 1H 2023). Revenue: UK£47.7m (down 17% from 1H 2023). Net loss: UK£33.1m (down UK£39.8m from profit in 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 41 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jan 17
Frontier Developments plc Provides Revenue Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2024 Frontier Developments plc provided revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2024. For the year, the company expects revenue to be within the guidance range of £80-95 million. Announcement • Jan 12
Frontier Developments plc to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Jan 17, 2024 Frontier Developments plc announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Jan 17, 2024 Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 19
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought UK£164k worth of stock On the 14th of December, James Mitchell bought around 145k shares on-market at roughly UK£1.13 per share. This transaction amounted to 72% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought UK£453k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 29
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 31% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from UK£106.6m to UK£100.3m. Losses expected to increase from UK£0.18 per share to UK£0.24. Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 33% next year. Consensus price target down from UK£5.03 to UK£4.03. Share price fell 24% to UK£1.61 over the past week. Announcement • Nov 29
Frontier Developments plc Updates Revenue Guidance for Fiscal Year 2024 Frontier Developments plc Updated revenue guidance for Fiscal Year 2024. For the period, company expects revenue in the range of £80-95 million, with the outcome dependent on sales performance across Frontier's game portfolio during the remainder of the financial year, including the revenue contributions from new platform releases for existing games. New Risk • Nov 27
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of British stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£60.2m market cap, or US$75.9m). New Risk • Nov 24
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: UK£75.7m (US$95.3m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (UK£75.7m market cap, or US$95.3m). Price Target Changed • Nov 23
Price target decreased by 8.5% to UK£4.69 Down from UK£5.12, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 120% above last closing price of UK£2.13. Stock is down 82% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.20 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.54 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 20
Consensus EPS estimates have been downgraded. The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from UK£107.6m to UK£106.4m. Now expected to report a loss of UK£0.18 per share instead of UK£0.049 per share profit previously forecast. Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 42% next year. Consensus price target down from UK£6.24 to UK£5.45. Share price fell 18% to UK£2.44 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 17
Price target decreased by 10% to UK£5.73 Down from UK£6.38, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 113% above last closing price of UK£2.69. Stock is down 79% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.14 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.54 last year. Announcement • Sep 14
Frontier Developments plc, Annual General Meeting, Nov 01, 2023 Frontier Developments plc, Annual General Meeting, Nov 01, 2023. Reported Earnings • Sep 14
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: UK£0.54 loss per share (down from UK£0.25 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: UK£104.6m (down 8.3% from FY 2022). Net loss: UK£20.9m (down 317% from profit in FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 52% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 52% per year. Announcement • Sep 08
Frontier Developments plc to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Sep 13, 2023 Frontier Developments plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results at 6:00 AM, Coordinated Universal Time on Sep 13, 2023 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 23
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to UK£3.53, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 251x. Average forward P/E is 28x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 84% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to UK£5.09, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 363x. Average forward P/E is 26x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 75% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 167% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -UK£0.025 to -UK£0.067 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at UK£104.0m. Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 38% next year. Consensus price target up from UK£6.35 to UK£6.54. Share price rose 10% to UK£6.31 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to UK£0.025 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. Now expected to report loss of -UK£0.025 instead of UK£0.044 per share profit in 2023. Revenue forecast reaffirmed at UK£104.0m. Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income growth of 38% next year. Consensus price target down from UK£7.18 to UK£6.35. Share price rose 4.1% to UK£5.82 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jul 18
Price target decreased by 17% to UK£6.35 Down from UK£7.69, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 7.3% above last closing price of UK£5.92. Stock is down 58% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.027 compared to earnings per share of UK£0.25 last year. Buying Opportunity • Jul 06
Now 24% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 19%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£7.39, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 23% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 4.4%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 58% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Jun 21
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 9.3%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£6.75, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 23% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 4.4%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 58% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 72% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from UK£105.1m to UK£104.0m. EPS estimate also fell from UK£0.16 per share to UK£0.044 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 94% next year vs 28% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target down from UK£7.69 to UK£7.18. Share price rose 3.0% to UK£5.55 over the past week. New Risk • Jun 15
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 30% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.3% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • May 31
Frontier Developments plc Announces Changes to Its Board Frontier Developments plc announced two Board changes. After serving almost seven years on Frontier's Board, Charles Cotton will retire from his role as Non-Executive Director on 1stJune 2023. During his time on the Board, Charles has drawn on his extensive leadership, business and marketing experience to support Frontier's transition to self-publishing through the successful development of multiple game franchises. Charles will be succeeded by Leslie-Ann Reed, who will join the Board as an independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Audit Committee on 1st June 2023. Leslie-Ann has a wealth of expertise in senior financial positions, having led commercial decision-making and planning, financial reporting, risk & compliance, M&A and operational activity in the UK and international markets. She also has a range of experience in Non-Executive Director roles. Leslie-Ann is therefore fully qualified to step into the role of Chair of the Audit Committee. Leslie-Ann's executive career includes seven years as Global CFO of Metal Bulletin, the international metals publisher, where she was responsible for finance, M&A, IT and investor relations. Prior to that Leslie-Ann held a number of internal finance and audit positions, including at Warner Inc. and EMI Records, as well as CFO of Polygram Film International. Leslie-Ann is currently Non-Executive Director and Audit Chair at Learning Technologies Group PLC, Bloomsbury Publishing PLC and Centaur Media PLC. Following the two changes effective 1stJune 2023, the Board will be comprised of five Non-Executive Directors and four Executive Directors: · David Wilton - Non-Executive Director and Company Chair · Ilse Howling - Non-Executive Director and Remuneration Committee Chair · Leslie-Ann Reed - Non-Executive Director and Audit Committee Chair · David Walsh - Non-Executive Director and Nominations Committee Chair · James Mitchell - Non-Executive Director · Jonny Watts - Chief Executive Officer (Executive Director) · Alex Bevis - Chief Financial Officer (Executive Director) · James Dixon - Chief Operating Officer (Executive Director) · David Braben - President and Founder (Executive Director). Buying Opportunity • May 11
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 7.0%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£6.75, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 23% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 4.4%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.3% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 41% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jan 20
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.17 (vs UK£0.042 loss in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.17 (up from UK£0.042 loss in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£57.1m (up 16% from 1H 2022). Net income: UK£6.72m (up UK£8.37m from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 12% (up from net loss in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jan 20
Frontier Developments plc Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal 2023 Frontier Developments plc provided earnings guidance for the fiscal 2023. The Board's expectation for revenue for fiscal 2023 of £100 million to £114 million, would deliver an IFRS operating profit in the range £2 million to £10 million. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 16
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 21% share price decline to UK£4.52, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 66% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£2.28 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 11
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from UK£135.9m to UK£120.3m. EPS estimate fell from UK£0.47 to UK£0.28 per share. Net income forecast to grow 69% next year vs 29% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target down from UK£21.00 to UK£14.12. Share price fell 54% to UK£4.68 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jan 10
Price target decreased to UK£15.37 Down from UK£17.51, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 204% above last closing price of UK£5.06. Stock is down 71% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.44 for next year compared to UK£0.25 last year. Price Target Changed • Jan 10
Price target decreased to UK£16.03 Down from UK£17.46, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 180% above last closing price of UK£5.73. Stock is down 67% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.45 for next year compared to UK£0.25 last year. Board Change • Dec 06
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Chairman David Wilton was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Dec 01
Frontier Developments plc Announces Executive Changes Frontier Developments plc confirmed two changes to Frontier's Board of Directors which were previously announced on 10 August 2022. As planned, David Gammon has retired from the Board after serving a full term as Chairman since joining in February 2012. David Wilton, who joined the Board on 22 September 2022 as Chairman designate, has stepped up to the role of Chairman, as planned. These changes are effective 1 December 2022. Following David Wilton's appointment to Chairman and David Gammon's retirement, Frontier's Board of Directors comprises four Executive Directors and five Non-Executive Directors: · Executive Directors: Jonny Watts (CEO), David Braben (President & Founder), Alex Bevis (CFO), James Dixon (COO) · Non-Executive Directors: David Wilton (Company Chair and interim Chair of Audit Committee), Ilse Howling (Chair of Remuneration Committee), David Walsh (Chair of Nominations Committee), Charles Cotton, James Mitchell. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 19
Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently sold UK£490k worth of stock On the 11th of November, David Gammon sold around 35k shares on-market at roughly UK£14.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 13% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was David's only on-market trade for the last 12 months.