Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 22% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from US$142.4m to US$174.0m. EPS estimate increased from US$0.16 to US$0.17 per share. Net income forecast to grow 41% next year vs 40% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target up from UK£3.32 to UK£3.55. Share price fell 3.5% to UK£3.07 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 14
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$0.12 (up from US$0.061 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$137.5m (up 1.8% from FY 2024). Net income: US$22.1m (up 94% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 16% (up from 8.4% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 14%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 52% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 22
Griffin Mining Limited Commences Zone II Production Griffin Mining Limited completed the first production blast in Zone II on the 20th April 2026 marking a key milestone in the commissioning and final safety approval process of Zone II in accordance with governing Chinese regulations. All statutory mandated mine development, totalling 19,400 metres and ventilation shafts totalling 625 metres, were completed on the 15th April 2026. Ore is now expected to be mined continuously from Zone II for the duration of the current mining licence running to 2054. New Risk • Mar 29
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2025. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2025 fiscal period end). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.8% net profit margin). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 13
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 28% to UK£3.00. The fair value is estimated to be UK£3.83, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 3.4%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 16% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 32% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Feb 12
Griffin Mining Limited Commences Gold Production In Zone III Of Yuan Long Orebody At Caijiaying Mine Griffin Mining Limited announced that gold production has successfully commenced in Zone III of the Yuan Long orebody at the Caijiaying Mine, marking the transition into sustained gold production from gold only stopes. Initial stopes are contributing approximately 5-10% of total daily Caijiaying Mine production, establishing gold as a recurring feed source to the processing plant. The YL orebody remains open to the south and at depth, with further diamond drilling and underground development planned to expand the production footprint. Ongoing drilling continues to materially expand the contained gold of the YL system whilst also defining a new, high grade, Fu Long feeder system, which the Company believes could potentially provide multiple avenues for near term growth and longer-term resource expansion. Drilling within the YL orebody continues to return high grade gold intercepts, at mineable widths, confirming strong continuity along strike and down plunge and supporting ongoing stope development and resource growth. Selected significant true width intercepts include: UGCJY 6485: 6.0 m @ 31.5 g/t Au (including 0.6m @ 312g/t), UGCJY 6488: 11.9 m @ 5.3 g/t Au (including 0.6m @ 92 g/t), UGCJY 6202: 6.9 m @ 4.7 g/t Au (including 2.5m @ 11.8 g/t). These results demonstrate the robust grade, thickness and continuity of the YL gold system. Drilling within the Fu Long orebody has confirmed the presence of a distinct, high grade, feeder system which is interpreted to contribute to the broader YL-FL mineralised corridor. Selected true width intercepts include: UGCJY 6047: 5.9 m @ 71.2 g/t Au (including 0.8m @ 479.8 g/t, 4.7m @ 2.2 g/t, 13.0m @ 1.0 g/t), UGCJY 6508: 9.2 m @ 1.4 g/t Au (including 3.7 m @ 16.1 g/t, 1.0 m @ 53.5 g/t, 11.4m @ 3.6 g/t, 0.9 m @ 34.4 g/t, 4.3m @4.3 g/t), UGCJY-5961: 12.2m @ 8.3 g/t Au (including 5.3m @ 16 g/t), UGCJY 6045: 6.8 m @ 5.9 g/t Au (including 0.5m @ 63.6 g/t), UCCJY-6048: 13.9m @ 5.8g/t Au (including 2.0 m @ 30.1 g/t, 10.5 m @ 3.7 g/t), UGCJY 6063: 7.9 m @ 5.1 g/t Au, UGCJY-6050: 15.7m @ 4.6 g/t Au (including 15.7m @ 34.6 g/t, 2.6 m @ 23.2 g/t), UGCJY-6057: 29.0m @ 4.0 g/t Au (including 5.1m @ 9.2 g/t), UGCJY-6046: 18.4m @ 3.3g/t Au. The identification of this feeder system introduces additional high grade gold growth and enhances long term production flexibility at the Caijiaying Mine. Announcement • Jan 19
Griffin Mining Limited Announces Renewal of Caijiaying Mining Licence to 2054 Griffin Mining Limited announced that it has successfully renewed its mining licence over the Caijiaying Mine through to the 28th August 2054. The term of 26 years is based upon the mine resources with the previous licence term being 16 years based upon earlier mineral resource estimates. This is a landmark achievement for the Company and guarantees it's long term mineral rights, it's production envelopes in Zones II and III, it's previously approved mining area and it's vertical mining boundary over the total Caijiaying Mine area. In addition, the mining licence renewal confirms the continuing successful development of the Caijiaying Mine and the Company's continuing ability to achieve key regulatory milestones in the Chinese regulatory environment. The extended tenure until 2054 secures the long-term future of the asset and allows for the continued systematic extraction of the resource. Announcement • Dec 05
Griffin Mining Limited Announces Caijiaying Zone II Commissioning on Schedule for First Quarter 2026 Griffin Mining Limited announced that the commissioning of ore extraction from Zone II at the Caijiaying Mine is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2026. As outlined in the Company's announcement dated the 18th September 2025, the Company continues to support the ongoing government regulatory safety measures (including explosives supply restrictions) requested by the relevant County, City and Provincial Bureaus although, as stated in the Announcement, mine production and financial results will continue to be impacted until the 31st December 2025. Importantly, there is no disruption to the supply of explosives for development activities and the Caijiaying Mine remains on schedule to obtain the full safety facility approval and completion of the necessary work to achieve commissioning of Zone II in the first quarter of 20 26. The Company's strong support of the government's safety initiatives continues to strengthen its relationship with Chinese regulators in all of these activities and approvals. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to UK£2.29, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Total returns to shareholders of 218% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 12
Insider recently sold UK£371k worth of stock On the 6th of November, John Steele sold around 200k shares on-market at roughly UK£1.85 per share. This transaction amounted to 100% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of UK£461k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 16
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to UK£2.09, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Total returns to shareholders of 165% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 12
Insider recently sold UK£90k worth of stock On the 6th of October, John Steele sold around 50k shares on-market at roughly UK£1.80 per share. This transaction amounted to 20% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Announcement • Sep 22
Griffin Mining Limited (AIM:GFM) announces an Equity Buyback for 10,000,000 shares, for $20 million. Griffin Mining Limited (AIM:GFM) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program,the company will repurchase up to 10 million shares for $20 million worth of its shares. The primary purpose of the Reverse Accelerated Bookbuild Buyback is to reduce the share capital of the Company. To the extent that the RABB Buyback is oversubscribed, orders will be scaled back (whether on a pro rata basis or otherwise) at the sole discretion of Griffin and Panmure Liberum. The RABB Buyback Buyback is expected to close on September 22, 2025. Reported Earnings • Sep 11
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$0.048 (vs US$0.059 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: US$0.048 (down from US$0.059 in 1H 2024). Revenue: US$63.7m (down 26% from 1H 2024). Net income: US$8.78m (down 22% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 14% (in line with 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 34% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 22% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$174.0m to US$160.0m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.23 per share to US$0.18 per share. Net income forecast to grow 191% next year vs 39% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target up from UK£1.90 to UK£2.00. Share price fell 3.6% to UK£1.90 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 18
Griffin Mining Limited (AIM:GFM) announces an Equity Buyback for 10,000,000 shares, representing 5.43% for $10 million. Griffin Mining Limited (AIM:GFM) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 10,000,000 shares, representing 5.43% of its issued share capital, for $10 million. The purpose of the program is to return excess funds to shareholders. The program will run until December 13, 2025. As of June 18, 2025, the company had 184,263,481 Ordinary Shares outstanding. Announcement • Jun 12
Griffin Mining Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 02, 2025 Griffin Mining Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 02, 2025. Location: clarendon house, 2 church street, hamilton, hm11, Bermuda Reported Earnings • Jun 06
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$0.061 (down from US$0.08 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$135.1m (down 7.5% from FY 2023). Net income: US$11.4m (down 26% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.4% (down from 10% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.8% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 22% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Jun 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.9% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Board Change • Jun 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Non-Executive Director Dean Moore was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Apr 15
Griffin Mining Limited Announces Drilling of High-Grade Gold Domines Under the Existing Development At the Caijiaying Mine During 2024-25 Continues to Deliver Exceptional Gold Intercepts Griffin Mining Limited announced that drilling of high-grade gold domains below the existing development at the Caijiaying Mine during 2024-25 continues to deliver exceptional gold intercepts. The Caijiaying global Mineral Resource currently (December 2023 MRe update) stands at: Source: Griffin Mining Limited Annual Report & Accounts 2023 Notes: The Caijiaying Mineral Resources are based on resource modelling work completed by ERM Australia Consultants Pty Limited (previously CSA Global) and reported in 2023 in accordance with JORC 2012 guidelines. The information in this report that relates to Mineral Resources is based on, and fairly reflects, information compiled by Dr. Maxim Seredkin a Competent Person, who is a Fellow of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists. Dr. Maxim Seredkin has sufficient experience relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as Competent Person as defined in the 2012 edition of the Australasian Code for the Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (JORC Code). RC drilling was used to obtain 1 m samples from which 3 kg was pulverised to produce a 50 g charge for fire assay and a 20 g charge for base metal assay. Drilling techniques Drill type (e.g. core, reverse circulation, open-hole hammer, rotary air blast, auger, Bangka, sonic, etc.) and details (e.g. core diameter, triple or standard tube, depth of diamond tails, face-sampling bit or other type, whether core is oriented and if so, by what method, etc.). Drilling was completed using a face sampling hammer or NQ2/BQ size diamond core. All holes were surveyed upon completion of drilling using single/multi-shot electronic or mechanical survey cameras. The logging information was recorded into Microsoft (MS) Excel format on paper and then transferred into the company's drilling database once the log was complete. Cut lines are marked on diamond drill core to ensure that the core to minimise bias when cutting. All results from assay standards and duplicates were scrutinised to ensure they fell within acceptable tolerances. The DBA imports the data into a GeoBank (MS SQL) database, with assay results merged into the database upon receipt from the laboratory. Location of data points Accuracy and quality of surveys used to locate drillholes (collar and downhole surveys), trenches, mine workings and other locations used in Mineral Resource estimation. Surface RC drill collars were surveyed after completion, using a differential global positioning system (GPS) instrument. Refer to December 2023 Mineral Resource estimation report. Resource extension drilling is designed to produce data density suitable for future Mineral Resource estimation updates. This is not considered to be a material factor because of the style of mineralisation and the use of underground drill fans to intersect the mineralisation at various angles. The Zone II Mining Licence has been granted See Company Announcement "Issue of New Mining Licence" dated 4th January 2021.uan Long is one of at least five interpreted high grade gold domains at Caijiaying, and is the only gold zone that currently has significant new drilling beneath the existing Mineral Resource. Following the recent dramatic increase in gold price and thus the potential in-ground value of high-grade gold domains at Caijiays, additional resource extension drilling has been designed to better define these structurally controlled gold-rich shoots with the aim to increase gold-rich mining inventory. This announcement aims to demonstrate the nature and continuity of one of the high-grade gold domains atCaijiaying for which there is material new drilling data. More than 63,200m of underground diamond drilling have been completed across the mine since January 2024, with a total of approximately 746,200m of underground diamond drill drilling since mining commenced. This includes ongoing grade control and resource extension/exploration drilling. Exploration results are not routinely reported by the Company unless they reflect a potentially materially different mineralisation style or grade profile. It is not routinely reported by the Company until they reflect a potentially materially different Mineral Resource profile. It is currently reported by the Company unless they reflects a potentially materially different mineralization style or grade profile. It has been reported by the Company's current grade profile. It is not reported by the Company's current current grade control and resource extension/Exploration results are not routinely reported in the Company unless they reflect a potential in the Company's current grade control and is not routinely reported by the company's mineralisation and resource extension/exploration results are currently has been reported in the Company's potential in the Company's current mineralisation style of mineralisation is not routinely reported in the Company's current mineralization and resource extension/expl exploration results are currently has been reported by the Company unless they have been reported by the Company's existing mineralisation style of mineralisation and resource extension/Exploration drilling results are not routinely reported in this report. Announcement • Jan 02
Griffin Mining Limited Announces Recommencement of Operations At Caijiaying Mine Griffin Mining Limited announced that it received the approval certificate from the Emergency Response Bureau for the recommencement of mining and processing operations at the Caijiaying Mine on Monday 30th December 2024 which allowed operations at the Caijiaying Mine to recommence yesterday, 1st January 2025. This has duly occurred. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from US$0.20 to US$0.17 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$171.0m. Net income forecast to grow 50% next year vs 36% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.89. Share price was steady at UK£1.49 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 18
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.059 (vs US$0.028 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: US$0.059 (up from US$0.028 in 1H 2023). Revenue: US$85.7m (up 23% from 1H 2023). Net income: US$11.3m (up 118% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 13% (up from 7.5% in 1H 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 1.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 20% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 11
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$169.9m to US$172.0m. EPS estimate increased from US$0.17 to US$0.20 per share. Net income forecast to grow 149% next year vs 30% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target up from UK£1.85 to UK£1.90. Share price was steady at UK£1.50 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 28
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 31% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$164.9m to US$169.9m. EPS estimate increased from US$0.13 to US$0.17 per share. Net income forecast to grow 110% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target up from UK£1.83 to UK£1.88. Share price was steady at UK£1.57 over the past week. Announcement • May 23
Griffin Mining Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2024 Griffin Mining Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2024. Location: clarendon house, 2 church street, hamilton, hm11, Bermuda Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$0.08 (up from US$0.044 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$146.0m (up 55% from FY 2022). Net income: US$15.2m (up 98% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 10% (up from 8.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to UK£1.35, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 4.3% over the past three years. New Risk • Mar 30
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.6% net profit margin). New Risk • Jan 17
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.6% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (6.1% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • Oct 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from US$0.06 to US$0.05 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$153.9m. Net income forecast to shrink 29% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.36. Share price was steady at UK£0.93 over the past week. New Risk • Oct 11
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 22% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 22% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.6% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (10% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 54% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from US$160.4m to US$155.4m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.13 per share to US$0.06 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 14% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.30. Share price rose 3.6% to UK£0.91 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 17
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.028 (vs US$0.017 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: US$0.028 (up from US$0.017 in 1H 2022). Revenue: US$69.5m (up 100% from 1H 2022). Net income: US$5.19m (up 71% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 8.7% in 1H 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year. Announcement • Jun 23
Griffin Mining Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 07, 2023 Griffin Mining Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jul 07, 2023, at 11:00 Atlantic Daylight. Location: Clarendon House, 2 Church Street Hamilton Hm11 Bermuda Reported Earnings • May 11
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.044 (vs US$0.14 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$0.044 (down from US$0.14 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$94.4m (down 22% from FY 2021). Net income: US$7.70m (down 70% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 8.2% (down from 21% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 29% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Feb 23
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 18%. The fair value is estimated to be UK£1.08, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 46%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 60% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 71% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Aug 18
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.017 (vs US$0.059 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: US$0.017 (down from US$0.059 in 1H 2021). Revenue: US$34.7m (down 36% from 1H 2021). Net income: US$3.03m (down 70% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 8.7% (down from 19% in 1H 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 43%, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 17
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from US$0.14 to US$0.12 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$116.7m. Net income forecast to shrink 13% next year vs 7.0% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.54. Share price rose 3.6% to UK£0.87 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 08
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from US$124.7m to US$117.7m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.17 per share to US$0.14 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 5.4% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target down from UK£1.67 to UK£1.53. Share price fell 5.7% to UK£0.88 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall to US$0.15 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from US$123.2m to US$121.7m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.17 to US$0.15. Net income forecast to grow 4.4% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.89. Share price rose 12% to UK£0.98 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.059 (vs US$0.022 loss in 1H 2020) The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: US$54.1m (up 154% from 1H 2020). Net income: US$10.3m (up US$14.1m from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 19% (up from net loss in 1H 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 19
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 20% share price decline to US$1.03, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 27.6x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 30% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£1.17 per share. Reported Earnings • May 14
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS US$0.052 (vs US$0.035 in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$75.4m (down 8.3% from FY 2019). Net income: US$8.91m (up 46% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 12% (up from 7.4% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 79 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Executive Departure • Feb 16
Independent Non Executive Director has left the company On the 10th of February, Rupert Ashton Crowe's tenure as Independent Non Executive Director ended after 7.4 years in the role. We don't have any record of a personal shareholding under Rupert's name. Rupert is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 04
New 90-day high: UK£1.43 The company is up 110% from its price of UK£0.68 on 05 November 2020. The British market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 27% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£1.28 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 15
New 90-day high: UK£1.22 The company is up 74% from its price of UK£0.70 on 16 October 2020. The British market is up 16% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 36% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£0.97 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 29
New 90-day high: UK£0.91 The company is up 48% from its price of UK£0.61 on 30 September 2020. The British market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 25% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£1.31 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 12
New 90-day high: UK£0.74 The company is up 25% from its price of UK£0.59 on 14 August 2020. The British market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period.