Tencent Music Entertainment Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Tencent Music Entertainment Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 9.6% and 8.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 11.5% in 3 years.
Key information
9.6%
Earnings growth rate
9.51%
EPS growth rate
| Entertainment earnings growth | 22.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.3% |
| Future return on equity | 11.48% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 22 Jul 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
No updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 20
TME: Future Risk Reward Hinges On Competition And Margin Execution
The latest Narrative Update for Tencent Music Entertainment Group reflects a reduced analyst price target to about $10 from roughly $21.77, as analysts factor in softer revenue growth expectations, slightly lower projected profit margins, and a more modest future P/E outlook. This comes alongside recent target cuts from $12 to $10 and from $23 to $18 at major firms, which cited elevated competition risks and slower revenue trends.Seeking Alpha • Jul 14
Tencent Music: SENDing Immersive Audio To The Masses; Reiterate Buy On Ecosystem Premiumization
Summary Tencent Music leverages its SEND model to automate spatial audio, enhancing premium content and improving ARPPU prospects. TME's SEND enables mass conversion of its catalog to 3D audio, lowering costs and expanding premium offerings across QQ Music and Ximalaya. Potential B2B licensing with over 40 automakers could open new revenue streams as TME integrates immersive audio into smart cockpits. We reaffirm a bullish rating on TME with a $12.71/share target, citing undervaluation at 8.3x forward earnings and ecosystem expansion post-Ximalaya. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 06
TME: Margin Upside And Platform Execution Will Drive Future Recovery
The analyst price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group has been reduced from $23 to $18, reflecting updated views on slower revenue growth, ongoing competition risks, and a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple, even as margin expectations are adjusted upward. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Tencent Music Entertainment Group highlights a mixed but still constructive stance, with price targets adjusted to reflect updated expectations on growth, competition, and valuation.
Narrative Update • Jun 22
TME: Content Expansion And AI Tools Will Support Monetization Against Competition
The analyst price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group has been reduced by $0.49. Analysts generally point to ongoing competition risks, slower revenue momentum, and concerns about the sustainability of premium valuation multiples as key factors behind the change.Narrative Update • Jun 03
TME: Dividend And Audio Expansion Will Test Monetization Resilience Against Competition
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group has been reduced from $17.59 to $15.95, as analysts factor in softer projected revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, a reduced future P/E assumption, and ongoing competitive pressure highlighted in recent target cuts and rating changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Tencent Music Entertainment Group reflects a mix of caution and selective optimism, with several firms adjusting ratings and price targets as they reassess growth, competition, and earnings visibility.Narrative Update • May 01
TME: Upcoming Dividend And Results Will Test Monetization Resilience Against Competition
The analyst price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group has been trimmed, with the updated fair value estimate moving to $17.59 from $17.98. Analysts are factoring in slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins alongside heightened competitive pressure, partly offset by expectations for a higher future P/E.Narrative Update • Apr 17
TME: Upcoming Results Will Test Competitive Pressures Against Resilient Monetization
The Analyst Price Target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group has been reduced from about $26.92 to about $17.98 as analysts factor in lower assumed revenue growth, slightly softer profit margins, a reduced future P/E, and recent rating and target cuts linked to competitive pressure and near term earnings visibility concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Tencent Music Entertainment Group is mixed, with a series of downgrades and target cuts clustered around concerns on competition and earnings visibility, alongside at least one upgrade that highlights potential upside if current headwinds ease.Narrative Update • Apr 02
TME: Core Monetization And K Content Will Support Future Recovery
The analyst price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group has been revised slightly lower to reflect a modest fair value adjustment to about $28.87. Analysts cited recent downgrades and reduced targets tied to competitive pressure and less clear near term earnings visibility, partly offset by at least one firm highlighting secure monetization and an overdone share selloff.Narrative Update • Mar 19
TME: Core Paying Users And K Content Will Support Future Recovery
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Tencent Music Entertainment Group, with the updated fair value estimate moving from about $30.90 to $29.33 as they factor in reduced revenue growth assumptions, a higher discount rate, and sector wide target cuts and downgrades that highlight competitive pressures and softer near term visibility. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Tencent Music Entertainment Group reflects a cautious tone overall, with several firms trimming price targets or moving to more neutral ratings as they reassess competitive risks and shorter term earnings visibility.Narrative Update • Mar 05
TME: Upcoming Results Review Will Highlight Resilient Monetization And Margin Strength
Analysts have nudged their price target on Tencent Music Entertainment Group slightly higher to $26.92 from $26.84, citing updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as key drivers of this fine tuning. What's in the News Tencent Music Entertainment Group has scheduled a board meeting for March 16, 2026 to review and vote on its unaudited results for the three months and full year ended December 31, 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 19
TME: Core Paying Users Will Support Future Recovery From Competitive Concerns
Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to their fair value estimate for Tencent Music Entertainment Group to $30.90 from $30.26, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E after recent research that kept a Neutral stance and highlighted steady user-paying fundamentals despite competitive noise from Bytedance's Soda Music. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary from bullish analysts has centered on how Tencent Music Entertainment Group's core business model and user-paying proposition remain intact, even as competition from Bytedance's Soda Music attracts attention.Narrative Update • Feb 04
TME: Post Earnings Pullback Will Highlight Resilient Monetization Despite Margin Concerns
Analysts have trimmed their Tencent Music Entertainment Group price target by a few dollars to the low US$20s, reflecting slightly lower long term earnings assumptions and some concern about future margin pressure, even as they highlight resilient user monetization and mixed views on the impact of Bytedance's Soda Music. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on Tencent Music Entertainment Group points to a split view, with some analysts seeing the post earnings pullback as an opportunity and others focusing more on execution risks and margins.Narrative Update • Jan 21
TME: Future Margin Debate Will Shape Upside After Recent Selloff
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Tencent Music Entertainment Group from US$23.15 to about US$21.77, reflecting lower long term earnings assumptions and a more cautious view on margin trends, even as they continue to highlight resilient user monetization and limited impact so far from Bytedance's Soda Music. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Tencent Music show a split in views, but there is a clear pocket of caution you should be aware of.Narrative Update • Jan 07
TME: Post Earnings Pullback Will Highlight Resilient User Monetization Story
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Tencent Music Entertainment Group by about $0.11 to $26.92, reflecting slightly lower margin and P/E assumptions, even as they point to solid recent results and ongoing debate around competition and earnings mix. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Tencent Music Entertainment Group highlights a mix of optimism around execution and user trends alongside a more cautious view on margins, earnings power, and competitive risk.Analysis Article • Dec 31
Investors Will Want Tencent Music Entertainment Group's (NYSE:TME) Growth In ROCE To Persist
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? In a...Analysis Article • Dec 16
Calculating The Fair Value Of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Tencent Music Entertainment Group fair value estimate is...Narrative Update • Dec 14
TME Will Likely Overcome Streaming Competition Concerns And Rebound From Recent Selloff
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Tencent Music Entertainment Group to approximately $30.26 from about $32.95, reflecting expectations of stronger top-line growth but moderating profit margins and limited near term re-rating catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research presents a mixed but generally constructive view on Tencent Music Entertainment Group, with several bullish analysts emphasizing resilient fundamentals, healthy execution and attractive entry levels following the recent share price pullback.Narrative Update • Nov 28
TME: Near-Term Margin Pressures Will Create Buying Opportunity After Recent Selloff
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group, trimming it by $0.44 as shifts in earnings outlook and ongoing competitive pressures prompt a more cautious near-term stance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research offers a mixed perspective on Tencent Music Entertainment Group, reflecting both optimism about its strategic positioning and caution regarding competitive pressures and margin dynamics.Narrative Update • Nov 14
TME: Market Pullback Will Likely Create Compelling Entry Opportunity Ahead
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group, reducing it by approximately $0.87 per share. Evolving revenue mix and margin pressures are prompting some caution, even as analysts express continued confidence in the company's growth outlook.Analysis Article • Sep 12
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...Narrative Update • Aug 19
Rising Smartphone Usage And Fan Economy Will Transform Entertainment
Tencent Music Entertainment Group’s analyst price target was raised to $28.14 following a strong Q2 beat, accelerating revenue growth, and robust monetization across its music ecosystem, reflecting increased confidence in its outlook. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cited a clean Q2 beat across all key metrics, with online music revenue growing 26% and significant improvement in average revenue per user.Seeking Alpha • Mar 24
Tencent Music: Seizing Opportunities In Music Business Amid Hurdles
Summary Tencent Music's 4Q24 shows strong growth in online music services but continued weakness in social entertainment, leading to a cautious stock outlook. Music subscription revenue grew 18% y/y, driven by increased paying users and ARPU, while social entertainment revenue declined 13% y/y. TME's valuation should focus on the music subscription segment, implying a 10% downside to $13/share, given the limited value of social entertainment. TME's ecosystem expansion, including SVIP membership growth and in-car music services, supports future user engagement and ARPU growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 03
Tencent Music: Caveats To The Recent Momentum
Summary Tencent Music has shown encouraging turnaround signs. But not enough to justify a position. Stay cautious into earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Nov 24
Innovative Content And Calculated Partnerships Unlock Sustainable Revenue Growth Ahead
Expansion of SVIP memberships and exclusive content offerings could boost ARPPU and subscription revenue growth.Seeking Alpha • Nov 21
Tencent Music: Singing To Its Strengths While Social Entertainment Hits A Sour Note
Summary Tencent Music's online music services show strong growth, but social entertainment faces structural decline due to competition and regulatory factors. Valuation should focus on the online music segment, implying a lower valuation; DCF analysis values TME at $9.50/share, a 15% downside. Online music revenue grew 20% y/y, driven by increased paying users and higher ARPU; social entertainment stagnates due to user churn and competition. Avoid TME stock due to diverging fundamentals and declining social entertainment segment—wait for stabilization in social entertainment metrics before considering investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 13
Tencent Music Entertainment Group: ARPPU Challenge Overshadows Subscriber Growth
Summary TME's Q3 2024 results show revenue and profit growth, but a sequential slowdown in growth rate, leading to a 5.45% stock drop. The number of paying users increased by 15.5% year-over-year, but ARPPU growth lagged at 4.9%, indicating price sensitivity among users. Despite management's confidence, I foresee limited room for ARPPU growth due to China's macroeconomic challenges and competition from short video platforms. TME remains fairly valued with a "hold" rating, given the potential 10% downside and geopolitical risks post-U.S. election. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 11
Many Things To Like About Tencent Music Entertainment
Summary I maintain a Buy rating for Tencent Music Entertainment, taking into consideration the multiple positives for the stock. TME's online music services revenue is resilient despite China's economic slowdown. The introduction of the new higher-priced Super VIP plan is expected to enhance ARPPU and drive future revenue growth for TME. TME has the potential to expand its gross margin with an increase in ARPPU and a higher proportion of self-developed content. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 31
Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Positive Fundamental Trends But Richly Valued
Summary China's online music market is growing rapidly, with TME dominating with a market share of over 60% in MAU and over 70% in paid users. TME's early monopoly was broken up by Chinese regulators in 2020, leading to improved margins and increased ARPU for TME and NetEase Cloud Music. TME's financial projections show potential revenue growth in the next few years, but the company's significant valuation premium poses a risk, leading to a "hold" rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 42,567 | 11,842 | 12,533 | 13,899 | 21 |
| 12/31/2027 | 39,304 | 10,272 | 10,534 | 12,268 | 27 |
| 12/31/2026 | 35,628 | 9,295 | 10,716 | 11,991 | 26 |
| 3/31/2026 | 33,441 | 8,856 | 8,856 | 10,044 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 32,902 | 11,056 | 9,043 | 10,231 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 31,719 | 10,810 | 9,288 | 10,320 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 30,271 | 10,240 | 7,770 | 8,802 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 28,989 | 9,513 | 9,076 | 10,108 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 28,401 | 6,644 | 9,243 | 10,275 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 27,836 | 5,993 | 8,608 | 9,772 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 27,390 | 5,578 | 7,884 | 9,048 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 27,516 | 5,194 | 7,007 | 8,171 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 27,752 | 4,920 | 6,173 | 7,337 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 28,284 | 4,765 | 6,801 | 7,854 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 29,080 | 4,658 | 6,612 | 7,665 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 28,699 | 4,216 | 5,786 | 6,839 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 28,339 | 3,677 | 6,428 | 7,481 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 28,521 | 3,062 | 3,051 | 5,809 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 28,961 | 2,741 | 3,394 | 6,152 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 30,064 | 2,712 | 3,097 | 5,855 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 31,244 | 3,029 | 2,481 | 5,239 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 31,972 | 3,690 | 5,780 | 6,281 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 31,742 | 4,082 | 4,701 | 5,202 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 30,666 | 4,194 | 5,196 | 5,697 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 29,153 | 4,155 | 4,384 | 4,885 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 28,111 | 4,000 | 4,768 | 5,054 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 27,043 | 3,894 | 5,380 | 5,890 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 26,009 | 3,882 | 6,054 | 6,340 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 25,434 | 3,982 | N/A | 6,200 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 23,538 | 2,064 | N/A | 6,099 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 22,000 | 2,002 | N/A | 6,391 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 20,605 | 1,979 | N/A | 6,484 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 18,985 | 1,833 | N/A | 5,632 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 17,174 | 3,245 | N/A | 3,447 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 15,115 | 2,675 | N/A | 2,626 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 12,855 | 1,969 | N/A | 1,609 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 10,981 | 1,326 | N/A | 2,500 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 8,614 | 904 | N/A | 3,050 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 6,923 | 623 | N/A | 2,524 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 5,642 | 353 | N/A | 1,699 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 4,361 | 82 | N/A | 873 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: TME's forecast earnings growth (9.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: TME's earnings (9.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: TME's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: TME's revenue (8.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: TME's revenue (8.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: TME's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/26 01:43 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/24 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Tencent Music Entertainment Group is covered by 60 analysts. 27 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Yanfang Jiang | Benchmark Company |
| Boris Van | Bernstein |