Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.58%Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group, trimming it by $0.44 as shifts in earnings outlook and ongoing competitive pressures prompt a more cautious near-term stance.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research offers a mixed perspective on Tencent Music Entertainment Group, reflecting both optimism about its strategic positioning and caution regarding competitive pressures and margin dynamics.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight Tencent Music’s solid Q3 results and view recent share price declines as an attractive entry point for investors.
- There is a consensus among some that the company's long-term growth story remains intact, and recent competitive concerns have not fundamentally undermined its core user-paying proposition.
- Positive commentary on Q4 performance offers confidence in continued operational execution, even in the face of competitive threats.
- The stock is seen by some as offering an enhanced buying opportunity, and upward adjustments to the price target reflect belief in its sustained value creation potential.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point to ongoing competitive pressures, specifically highlighting concerns over Bytedance’s Soda Music, which could affect user trends and sentiment.
- There is increasing caution around margin pressure, as a shift toward lower-margin revenue streams could reverse multi-year trends of margin expansion.
- Reductions in earnings forecasts for FY25-27 signal a more conservative near-term outlook, suggesting that re-rating catalysts may be lacking in the short term.
- Despite solid execution, some maintain that the stock is fairly valued at current levels, and see limited upside until strategic challenges are addressed.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has declined modestly, moving from $27.47 to $27.03.
- Discount Rate has decreased slightly, shifting from 9.87% to 9.80%.
- Revenue Growth projection has risen marginally, from 15.13% to 15.18%.
- Net Profit Margin expectation has edged down, from 29.42% to 29.33%.
- Future P/E Ratio has remained relatively stable, easing from 27.40x to 27.37x.
Disclaimer
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