Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:ALSN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.9b

Allison Transmission Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Allison Transmission Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17% and 13.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 31.5% in 3 years.

Key information

17.0%

Earnings growth rate

19.40%

EPS growth rate

Machinery earnings growth16.7%
Revenue growth rate13.1%
Future return on equity31.48%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated16 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Analysis Article • Jun 20

Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) Stock Could Be 12.7% Undervalued After $250 Million CV90 Deal

Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) is back on investor radars after securing a $250 million contract with BAE Systems Hägglunds for CV90 MkIV infantry fighting vehicles, alongside repricing its $508 million term loan. See our latest analysis for Allison Transmission Holdings. Against this backdrop of new defense work and lower borrowing costs, Allison Transmission Holdings has seen a 30-day share price return of 9.2% and a year to date share price return of 20.38%. Its 1-year total...
Narrative Update • Jun 15

ALSN: Higher P E Reliance Will Limit Upside Despite Defense Contract Wins

Analysts have lifted their price target on Allison Transmission Holdings, with the updated fair value estimate moving from $92.00 to $105.00. This change reflects revisions to revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate assumptions and a higher future P/E after recent Street target increases from $117.00 to $126.00.
Narrative Update • Jun 01

ALSN: Off Highway Integration And Margins Will Support Future Earnings Durability

Analysts have nudged their average price target on Allison Transmission Holdings higher to $126, reflecting updated assumptions around a modest shift in the discount rate, slightly firmer profit margins, and a small adjustment to future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research activity around Allison Transmission Holdings shows a cluster of bullish analysts revisiting their models and lifting valuation marks, pointing to a more constructive stance on the stock.
Narrative Update • May 07

ALSN: Cost Discipline And Off Highway Outlook Will Shape Future Balance

Allison Transmission Holdings' analyst fair value estimate has shifted from $131.00 to $136.50 as analysts factor in recent price target increases, stronger than expected Q4 EBITDA on cost and pricing actions, and expectations for mid single digit-plus growth in the Off-highway segment, alongside an updated P/E and discount rate framework. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Allison Transmission highlight a mix of confidence in the current execution and caution around end market visibility and longer term outlook.
Narrative Update • Apr 21

ALSN: Cost Actions And Off Highway Demand Will Shape Future Risk Reward

Narrative Update The analyst price target for Allison Transmission has been raised to $131.00 from $129.70, reflecting updated fair value and P/E assumptions as analysts factor in recent cost-driven earnings beats, mixed end market commentary, and varying views on longer term demand. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Allison Transmission highlight a mix of confidence in execution and caution around end market visibility, which is feeding into higher price targets but still varied ratings.
Narrative Update • Apr 05

ALSN: Cost And Pricing Execution Will Support Future Earnings Durability

Allison Transmission's analyst price targets have moved higher into a $95 to $135 range, as analysts point to Q4 EBITDA outperformance driven by cost reductions and price increases, along with expectations for mid single digit plus growth in the Off-highway segment. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Allison Transmission point to a tighter, higher price target band between US$95 and US$135, with several bullish analysts reacting to Q4 execution and expectations for the Off-highway segment.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 01

Allison Transmission: Not A Great Year And 2026 May Not Be Very Different

Summary Allison Transmission (ALSN) remains a hold as core NA on-highway markets stay weak and revenue declined 7% YoY in FY25. Gross margins held steady due to effective pricing, but operating efficiency metrics like ROA and ROE deteriorated, reflecting eroding pricing power. ALSN's acquisition of Dana’s Off-highway segment boosts sales but does not materially improve EBITDA guidance or offset cyclical trucking weakness. Defense contracts provide margin upside and diversification, but the segment remains too small to drive near-term growth or justify a more bullish stance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 22

ALSN: Cost And Pricing Execution Will Support Future Earnings Durability

Allison Transmission Holdings' updated analyst price target rises in this narrative to $174.73, reflecting analysts' focus on a higher assumed fair value, a modestly lower discount rate, stronger modeled revenue growth, a slightly lower profit margin, and a higher future P/E, supported by a series of recent target increases from major firms following Q4 cost and pricing progress. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a clear tilt toward higher valuation assumptions for Allison Transmission Holdings, with multiple bullish analysts lifting price targets following the latest Q4 update.
Narrative Update • Mar 08

ALSN: Q4 Execution And Off Highway Demand Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward

The analyst price target for Allison Transmission has increased to about $130 from roughly $115. Analysts point to stronger than expected Q4 results driven by cost reductions and pricing, as well as steady contributions from off highway end markets.
Narrative Update • Feb 21

ALSN: Value-Based Pricing And Neutral Views Will Shape Future Risk Reward Balance

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Allison Transmission Holdings from $100.20 to $114.80, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E multiples, as reflected in recent price target increases from major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent target moves around Allison Transmission Holdings give you a snapshot of how Wall Street is thinking about the risk and reward trade off here.
Narrative Update • Feb 07

ALSN: Muted Truck Demand And Execution Risks Will Restrain Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Allison Transmission Holdings to $92 from $77, citing updated views on revenue growth, margins, and future P/E. This change is supported by several recent price target increases across the Street.
Narrative Update • Jan 24

ALSN: Value-Based Pricing And Margin Strength Will Support Future Earnings

Analysts have raised their blended price target on Allison Transmission to about $147 from $134, citing recent target increases and a view that current fair value assumptions, profit margins and forward P/E expectations are better supported by their latest research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Allison Transmission Holdings highlights a cluster of higher price targets that align with the view that current fair value and P/E expectations are better supported by recent work on the company.
Narrative Update • Jan 10

ALSN: Medium Duty Truck Demand Concerns Will Constrain Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Allison Transmission Holdings from US$84.00 to US$77.00, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rate, growth, margins and long term P/E in light of recent Street research. The new estimate balances confidence in value based pricing and core business execution with a more muted medium duty truck demand outlook.
Analysis Article • Jan 05

Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Narrative Update • Dec 17

ALSN: Value-Based Pricing Will Support Earnings Amid Softer Truck Demand

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Allison Transmission Holdings to approximately $134 from about $129. This reflects slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profitability, even as they balance this with a more cautious long term demand outlook for medium duty trucks.
Narrative Update • Dec 03

ALSN: Value-Based Pricing Will Support Margins Despite Truck Cycle Headwinds

Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on Allison Transmission Holdings to $85, citing confidence in its value-based pricing strategy and steady core transmission performance, even as they flag a more muted long-term backdrop for medium-duty truck demand. Analyst Commentary Analyst reactions frame Allison Transmission as a fundamentally solid operator with disciplined pricing, but one whose long-term growth profile is tempered by structural demand headwinds in its core markets.
Narrative Update • Nov 19

ALSN: Consistent Execution Will Support Margin Strength Despite Medium-Duty Truck Weakness

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Allison Transmission Holdings from $101.89 to $100.20. They cite consistent business performance while anticipating softer long-term demand in the medium-duty truck segment.
Narrative Update • Nov 04

ALSN: Global Defense Expansion And Share Repurchases Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have revised their price target for Allison Transmission Holdings from $103.00 to $101.89, citing higher expected revenue growth, moderating profit margins, and a slight increase in the discount rate. What's in the News North American Class 8 truck orders fell 32% year-over-year to 20,500 vehicles in September.
Narrative Update • Oct 20

Electrification And Global Expansion Will Unlock Future Opportunities

Narrative Update: Allison Transmission Holdings Analyst Price Target Adjusted Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for Allison Transmission Holdings from $104.89 to $103.00. This change reflects adjustments to growth projections and valuation assumptions.
Analysis Article • Sep 12

Does Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Narrative Update • Sep 03

Electrification And Global Expansion Will Unlock Future Opportunities

The significant upward revision in consensus revenue growth forecasts and a notable decline in expected future P/E have driven a modest increase in Allison Transmission Holdings' analyst price target from $101.67 to $104.89. What's in the News Repurchased 1,088,028 shares for $102.49 million, bringing total buybacks to 87,472,892 shares (72.29%) valued at $3,737.26 million since program inception.
Analysis Article • Aug 28

Should You Investigate Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) At US$89.20?

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:ALSN ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of...
Analysis Article • Jul 20

Are Investors Undervaluing Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) By 45%?

Key Insights Allison Transmission Holdings' estimated fair value is US$158 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...
Analysis Article • Jul 06

Does Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE:ALSN) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

Allison Transmission: Long-Term Looks Promising, But Uncertain For Now

Summary Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s FY24 results show steady sales growth and strong operational efficiency despite rising input costs, highlighting management's adeptness in maintaining profitability. The company's impressive ROA and ROE, along with a solid balance sheet, indicate robust financial health and efficient asset utilization. Key growth drivers include North American on-highway demand, defense sector expansion, and innovations in electrification despite market uncertainties and potential tariff impacts. Given macroeconomic risks, I am cautiously optimistic and initiate coverage on ALSN stock with a hold awaiting further margin developments and guidance updates. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ALSN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,4261,0211,0571,2965
12/31/20276,0508921,1571,41510
12/31/20265,79475671097310
3/31/20263,650543609811N/A
12/31/20253,010623661836N/A
9/30/20253,069699628804N/A
6/30/20253,200762654822N/A
3/31/20253,202754651809N/A
12/31/20243,225731658801N/A
9/30/20243,204726708828N/A
6/30/20243,116684680794N/A
3/31/20243,083672652764N/A
12/31/20233,035673661784N/A
9/30/20232,978644607770N/A
6/30/20232,952625607765N/A
3/31/20232,833572519688N/A
12/31/20222,769531496657N/A
9/30/20222,695508469601N/A
6/30/20222,552463444590N/A
3/31/20222,491451505666N/A
12/31/20212,402442464635N/A
9/30/20212,293384487626N/A
6/30/20212,258367457592N/A
3/31/20212,032280426544N/A
12/31/20202,081299446561N/A
9/30/20202,163346438604N/A
6/30/20202,300418476654N/A
3/31/20202,660576626801N/A
12/31/20192,698604N/A847N/A
9/30/20192,728644N/A877N/A
6/30/20192,751662N/A904N/A
3/31/20192,725655N/A878N/A
12/31/20182,713639N/A837N/A
9/30/20182,654707N/A771N/A
6/30/20182,557651N/A747N/A
3/31/20182,426572N/A700N/A
12/31/20172,262504N/A658N/A
9/30/20172,143350N/A667N/A
6/30/20171,982284N/A580N/A
3/31/20171,877250N/A584N/A
12/31/20161,840215N/A591N/A
9/30/20161,849167N/A591N/A
6/30/20161,908169N/A625N/A
3/31/20161,944162N/A607N/A
12/31/20151,986182N/A580N/A
9/30/20152,052220N/A562N/A
6/30/20152,112242N/A574N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALSN's forecast earnings growth (17% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: ALSN's earnings (17% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (18.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALSN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALSN's revenue (13.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALSN's revenue (13.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALSN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (31.5%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/29 04:57
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/26 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is covered by 25 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Luke JunkBaird
Andrew KaplowitzBarclays
Sherif El-SabbahyBofA Global Research