New Risk • May 11
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 2.2% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥11.3b to CN¥10.3b. EPS estimate also fell from CN¥0.64 per share to CN¥0.53 per share. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Food industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥12.00 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at CN¥9.83 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 22
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.40 (down from CN¥0.53 in FY 2024). Revenue: CN¥10.1b (down 7.8% from FY 2024). Net income: CN¥547.9m (down 25% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.4% (down from 6.7% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 8.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 28%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Announcement • Apr 22
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 12, 2026 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 12, 2026, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: 12F, No. 136, Hengshan Road, Jianye District, Nanjing, Jiangsu China Announcement • Mar 30
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 30, 2026 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 30, 2026 Announcement • Dec 26
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Apr 15, 2026 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Apr 15, 2026 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.07 (vs CN¥0.12 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.07 (down from CN¥0.12 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥2.22b (down 7.3% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CN¥90.8m (down 44% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.1% (down from 6.7% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.0% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year. Announcement • Sep 30
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 29, 2025 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 29, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.67 to CN¥0.555 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥11.0b. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Food industry in China. Consensus price target down from CN¥12.00 to CN¥11.50. Share price was steady at CN¥9.57 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 23
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.089 (vs CN¥0.12 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.089 (down from CN¥0.12 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: CN¥2.45b (down 9.7% from 2Q 2024). Net income: CN¥130.8m (down 21% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.3% (down from 6.1% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.4% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year. Announcement • Jun 30
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 21, 2025 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 21, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Apr 29
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 24% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from CN¥14.6b to CN¥11.1b. EPS estimate fell from CN¥0.725 to CN¥0.60 per share. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Food industry in China. Consensus price target of CN¥12.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.7% to CN¥9.74 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 24
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.53 (down from CN¥0.59 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥10.9b (down 10% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥730.1m (down 11% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.7% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 18%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.8% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Apr 23
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2025 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2025, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: The Company's Meeting Room, Nanjing, Jiangsu China Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to CN¥11.42, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Food industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 14% over the past three years. Announcement • Mar 28
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 29, 2025 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 29, 2025 Reported Earnings • Jan 25
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.53 (down from CN¥0.59 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥11.0b (down 9.9% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥728.5m (down 11% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.6% (down from 6.7% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 18%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year. Announcement • Dec 27
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 23, 2025 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Apr 23, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.12 (vs CN¥0.20 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.12 (down from CN¥0.20 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥2.40b (down 28% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CN¥161.3m (down 35% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.7% (down from 7.5% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Sep 30
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 29, 2024 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 29, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 30
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CN¥10.66, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Food industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 13% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 21
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.12 (vs CN¥0.11 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.12 (up from CN¥0.11 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥2.72b (down 4.0% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CN¥165.8m (up 2.1% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.1% (up from 5.7% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Aug 02
Less than half of directors are independent There are 8 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 8 new directors. 2 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (4 non-independent directors). Independent Director Gen Jie is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2018. Independent Director Ying Li was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Jul 22
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.12 (vs CN¥0.11 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.12 (up from CN¥0.11 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CN¥2.72b (down 4.0% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CN¥165.6m (up 2.0% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.1% (up from 5.7% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 01
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to CN¥9.29. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥7.66, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 5.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 24% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 26% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Jun 28
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 21, 2024 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 21, 2024 Reported Earnings • Apr 20
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.59 (vs CN¥0.60 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.59 (down from CN¥0.60 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥12.2b (down 4.4% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥816.2m (down 1.2% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 6.7% (up from 6.5% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year. Announcement • Apr 20
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 17, 2024 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 17, 2024, at 14:00 China Standard Time. Location: The Company's Meeting Room, Nanjing, Jiangsu China Announcement • Mar 29
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 27, 2024 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 27, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to CN¥9.94, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 16.7x. Average trailing P/E is 26x in the Food industry in China. Total loss to shareholders of 4.5% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Jan 13
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.59 (vs CN¥0.60 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.59 (down from CN¥0.60 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥12.2b (down 4.1% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥818.5m (flat on FY 2022). Profit margin: 6.7% (up from 6.5% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Dec 30
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Apr 19, 2024 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Apr 19, 2024 Price Target Changed • Oct 26
Price target decreased by 8.3% to CN¥13.75 Down from CN¥15.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 31% above last closing price of CN¥10.53. Stock is down 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CN¥0.60 for next year compared to CN¥0.60 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.20 (vs CN¥0.19 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.20. Revenue: CN¥3.33b (up 17% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CN¥249.3m (down 2.6% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.5% (down from 9.0% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Announcement • Sep 30
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 24, 2023 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 24, 2023 New Risk • Aug 28
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 23% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Aug 22
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.11 (vs CN¥0.15 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.11 (down from CN¥0.15 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥2.83b (down 24% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CN¥162.4m (down 24% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.7% (in line with 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Jul 25
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 47% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (47% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Jul 24
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.11 (vs CN¥0.15 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.11 (down from CN¥0.15 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CN¥2.83b (down 24% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CN¥161.2m (down 25% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.7% (in line with 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jun 28
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 22, 2023 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Aug 22, 2023 Reported Earnings • Apr 23
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.60 (up from CN¥0.53 in FY 2021). Revenue: CN¥12.7b (up 20% from FY 2021). Net income: CN¥826.2m (up 12% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.5% (down from 6.9% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Jan 14
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.61 (up from CN¥0.53 in FY 2021). Revenue: CN¥12.7b (up 19% from FY 2021). Net income: CN¥834.4m (up 13% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.6% (down from 6.9% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 3 non-independent directors. Independent Director Xiang Li was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Oct 21
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.19 (vs CN¥0.15 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.19 (up from CN¥0.15 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥2.86b (up 5.8% from 3Q 2021). Net income: CN¥255.9m (up 20% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 9.0% (up from 7.9% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 19
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.15 (vs CN¥0.17 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.15 (down from CN¥0.17 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥3.74b (up 38% from 2Q 2021). Net income: CN¥212.3m (flat on 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 5.7% (down from 7.8% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 1.9%, compared to a 22% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 25% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Board Change • Jul 31
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 3 non-independent directors. Independent Director Xiang Li was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Jul 15
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.15 (vs CN¥0.17 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.15 (down from CN¥0.17 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥3.74b (up 38% from 2Q 2021). Net income: CN¥212.3m (flat on 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 5.7% (down from 7.8% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 1.9%, compared to a 23% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 22% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Jun 28
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 2.5%. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥18.22, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 20% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 10%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 15% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 45% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 19
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to CN¥16.44, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Food industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 145% over the past three years. Buying Opportunity • May 12
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 28%. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥18.38, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 20% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 10%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 15% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 44% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0.10 (up from CN¥0.08 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: CN¥2.41b (up 31% from 1Q 2021). Net income: CN¥133.6m (up 15% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 6.3% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 10%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 6.1%, compared to a 18% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 26% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Apr 16
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: CN¥0.53 (up from CN¥0.49 in FY 2020). Revenue: CN¥10.6b (up 23% from FY 2020). Net income: CN¥737.0m (up 10% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 6.9% (down from 7.8% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 10%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.1%, compared to a 17% growth forecast for the industry in China. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Feb 11
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 11%. The fair value is estimated to be CN¥14.28, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 22% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.7% per annum over the last 3 years. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.15 (vs CN¥0.14 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a solid third quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥2.70b (up 48% from 3Q 2020). Net income: CN¥213.5m (up 7.6% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.9% (down from 11% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 17% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 22
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.17 (vs CN¥0.18 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues were flat. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥2.71b (flat on 2Q 2020). Net income: CN¥212.7m (down 5.3% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 8.3% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year. Reported Earnings • Jul 15
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.17 (vs CN¥0.18 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues were flat. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: CN¥2.71b (flat on 2Q 2020). Net income: CN¥211.7m (down 5.7% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 8.3% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 10
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to CN¥11.98, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 28x in the Food industry in China. Total returns to shareholders of 50% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Apr 17
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.49 (vs CN¥0.43 in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: CN¥8.62b (up 7.4% from FY 2019). Net income: CN¥669.7m (up 13% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 7.8% (up from 7.4% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 5% per year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 29
New 90-day low: CN¥11.62 The company is down 10.0% from its price of CN¥12.93 on 30 October 2020. The Chinese market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Food industry, which is up 22% over the same period. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Jan 19
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.1%, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Reported Earnings • Jan 16
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS CN¥0.49 The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: CN¥8.67b (up 8.0% from FY 2019). Net income: CN¥672.0m (up 14% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 7.7% (up from 7.4% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Jan 16
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 16%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.1%, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the Food industry in China. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 09
New 90-day low: CN¥11.80 The company is down 10.0% from its price of CN¥13.18 on 10 September 2020. The Chinese market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Food industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 30
New 90-day low: CN¥12.93 The company is down 4.0% from its price of CN¥13.53 on 31 July 2020. The Chinese market is down 2.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Food industry, which is also down 4.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of CN¥726.8m, up 33% from the prior year. Total revenue was CN¥8.75b over the last 12 months, up 28% from the prior year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 12
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to CN¥15.79, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 31.6x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 26.3x. This compares to an average P/E of 46x in the Food industry in China. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 37%. Announcement • Jul 08
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Aug 21, 2020 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2020 results on Aug 21, 2020