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thomsonic

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MAU·5 months agoMontage Gold, Building West Africa’s Next 300Koz Producer, First Pour Late 2026, 5.88Moz Resource

High Sensitivity to AISC: A 10% increase in operating costs typically results in a 12–15% decrease in After-Tax NPV. At the $1,850/oz base case, if AISC rose from $998/oz to ~$1,100/oz, the NPV would drop from $1.089 billion to approximately $940 million. Operating Margin: The project is designed with a "low-cost" profile. During the first three years, AISC is projected to be much lower at $899/oz, driven by high-grade ore from the Gbongogo Main satellite deposit.

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MAU·5 months agoMontage Gold, Building West Africa’s Next 300Koz Producer, First Pour Late 2026, 5.88Moz Resource

Q2 2027 – Hard-Rock Circuit: Completion of the hard-rock comminution circuit, enabling the mine to reach its full 11Mtpa throughput capacity. The early commissioning of the oxide circuit in late 2026 is the most significant strategic shift, as it allows Montage to generate revenue several months earlier than planned, further de-risking the 2029 buy-back timeline.

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MAU·5 months agoMontage Gold, Building West Africa’s Next 300Koz Producer, First Pour Late 2026, 5.88Moz Resource

Late Q4 2026 – First Gold Pour: Initial production via the oxide circuit (advanced from the original Q2 2027 target)

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LUG·over 1 year agoLundin Gold's 29.56% Profit Margin Will Impress in 5 Years

I also did an analysis in Fastgraph using free cash flow to equity and estimated $56 usin its growth rate. Pretty good agreement to the $60 using DCF model

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LUG·over 1 year agoLundin Gold's 29.56% Profit Margin Will Impress in 5 Years

I am beginning to think the ~$60/share may be on the low side because its based on the current Fruta del Norte mine's amazing cash flow. What the analysis ignores, it the likely probability the current drilling south of Fruta del Norte is also finding large intersections of somewhat lower grade but definitely mineable gold ore. I would also like to see management focus some of the exploration drilling on the northern part of the block as well. Why? My thinking is that Newmount already is the largest shareholder in Lundin Gold with an investment to date of over 2 billion dollars, and the record shows, they have been increasing their stake . I would anticipate they may end up making a takeover offer and I think its crucial for Lundin to try and prove up as much of the acreage as possible, as soon as possible, before this happens. Anyway--thats how I read the tea leaves for what is obviously a very high grade gold mine with tons of upside already in place.

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