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Portfolio Manager sharing my Investment Insights .

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MNSO·Top Pick for Multi-bagger
Hi Wane, Thanks for the kinds words! I appreciate you taking the time to read my analysis and drop a comment. It's great to see other investors interested in $MNSO. I hear your concerns about the valuation and expansion strategy. Here's a bit more color on my perspective: 1. The Fair Value is set for the next 5Y. Meaning a fair value of $44.1 can deliver 9.4% yearly return. Which isn't the best. I'm not being too optimistic here as SimplyWallSt provides a $62 fair value, which I disagree with. 2. I agree that strategic expansion is key. $MNSO is expanding aggressively, overseas but they are focusing on new key markets like the US. Of course, there are risks associated with any expansion, particularly in the current geopolitical climate. 3. While increasing dividends might attract some income investors, I believe $MNSO is better off reinvesting its profits to fuel further growth. They are also actively buying back shares, which benefits shareholders. I understand the pressure from China to increase dividends, but I'm not convinced it's the best strategy for long-term value creation. 4. I'm a bit confused about your comment on negative EPS. $MNSO has consistently grown both revenue and net income, which has driven EPS growth. Am I missing something here? (Reading the last sentence of my narrative). I also recommended to wait for an entry point of ~$20, the less the better of course. With such price, there's the potential of obtaining a ~16% yearly return, which is way more attractive. Thanks and have a nice investing!
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MNSO·Top Pick for Multi-bagger
Hi Danny, Thanks for dropping a comment! Regarding your question. You've hit on a key point, is not purely about the growth but more on their fundamentals over time. Q. Is your research suggesting that their future growth will be even better than what they have been doing YoY for past 4+ years? Answer: Firstly, my philosophy is not to invest in high-growth-no-profitable companies as they tend to have a higher risk over reward potential. My thesis is more oriented on the quality business and how their fundamentals have been steadily stabilizing and/or improving over time. The company has been trading publicly since 2020. For most companies, 4 years is enough to prove their management board quality and capital allocation strategies. If you look at the valuation, when it reached $30 twice, it was a not profitable company (negative earnings) in 2021, trading 45x P/E in 2023... Back then, It wasn't a good reward-risk deal. However, after delivering earnings for 3 years and constantly delivering great capital allocation strategies. It makes me confident that their management board is highly aligned to increase the company value. All of their fundamentals are slowly stabilizing at reasonable ranges. The business is straightforward to understand, and I consider it resilient in economic downturn environments as its products are cheap to everyone. In other words, we are dealing with a high-quality company that is still growing at attractive rates (+15 CAGR at least) for 18x P/E; it can be a multi-bagger in the long term. [img]https://staticm.fastcomments.com/1737744183809-miniso-group-holding-lim_(3).jpeg[/img]
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