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BP.·Upstream Discoveries and Capital Returns Will Influence Global Energy Markets Ahead
the lack of revenue growth is a major risk factor. This is effectively an efficiency and cost reduction story, against a high current debt level, luck of new production growth due to underinvestment in recent years and huge industry pressure to refining and lubricants because of EVs growth. The dividend cover is also threatened by the high debt and the drop in net cash. The only upside here is the geopolitical risks for oil, which currently are not reflected in the oil price. If these does not transpire and a risk premium does not materialise in the oil price to move sustainably to the $80-$90 range, then the downside risks are higher than a meagre upside potential. The messages are conflicting on this front, with US policy all over the place.
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