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niteco

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The Foxhole

·about 1 month agoGrowth investors are paying for a decade of moat protection. AI's real threat was never to earnings. It's to the calendar.

TXN reaching harvest season of their 300mm capex cycle - their moat has timed up well imo

The Foxhole

·2 months agoWe chase the trend everyone is talking about and ignore the century-old brand. History suggests we have it backwards.

Texas Instruments. Owning its own fabs, focusing on analog and embedded chips, and allocating capital with decades in mind gives it a moat that’s hard to replicate. The world will need more power management and industrial semis in 2050 than it does today.

The Foxhole

·3 months agoJudge a company by total shareholder yield, not dividend yield alone, and the buybacks start to matter as much as the cheque.

I appreciate TXN for this reason specifically. QCOM, as well

The Foxhole

·3 months agoA high dividend yield is not automatically a ‘trap’, and Exxon’s 9% yield in 2020 is an example.

Yield alone doesn’t make a stock attractive. As an example, for TXN I treat ~3.5% yield as a valuation checkpoint. Over time, investors can often identify yield ranges where the market has historically stepped in and provided support. For TXN, a yield around 3.5% has frequently coincided with periods of elevated pessimism despite a still-healthy business. If the fundamentals remain intact, the combination of a higher starting yield, continued dividend growth, and a valuation level that has historically attracted buyers creates a risk/reward profile that’s difficult for me to ignore.

The Foxhole

·3 months agoMost people stop at chips. Some stop at power. Drill down far enough and you hit a turbine blade almost no one can make.

Along that same train of thought, I feel companies like IRM have a possible foot in the door there - thinking about whether chips and racks are being ripped out to replace with better ones or the less optimistic route

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