Community Contributor
Member since 2020
Views
81.3k Total number of views
Fair Values Set
1k Total number of fair values set
Comments
23 Total number of comments
Followers
201 Total number of followers

I’m an independent retail investor focused on asymmetric opportunities. Combining fundamentals, macro, and technicals to uncover ideas that others overlook.

No link added
IREN logo
IREN·The Neocloud Bloodbath, The $832M Payday, and Why I'm Still Holding
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Morgan and Joe. A few points:Risky? Absolutely. I’ve explicitly called out the high-risk nature of this investment since the very first time I started writing about it in 2024. Volatility is the price of admission here.Is contracted grid power BS? I don't think so. Because of the history of IREN as a Bitcoin miner, they secured massive power assets years ago. They did this long before the AI boom became a reality and demand skyrocketed, giving them a huge first-mover advantage over newer players scrambling for grid access today. IREN holds binding grid interconnection agreements with major grid operators (like ERCOT in Texas and BC Hydro). On top of that, they are highly verticalized. They physically own and operate the substations, land, and data center shells across their sites.Nvidia didn't "backstop" IREN to fulfill the deal. The $9.7B Microsoft contract is backed by a $1.94B direct prepayment from Microsoft, a $5.8B infrastructure arrangement with Dell, and $3.6B in GPU debt financing underwritten by tier-1 banks (Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan) at an incredible <6% interest rate.Do we actually need another neocloud and this much power? Valid question, Joe! In general, there's certainly a risk the industry might be overbuilding and overspending, as we saw in the dot-com bubble with fiber. I believe, however, that the demand is real and the need for AI data centers is justified if you believe we're entering a world of AI agents and multiple devices (cars, robots, etc.) needing AI.In the specific case of IREN, the reason I view them differently than CoreWeave or Nebius (which I also own, to a lesser degree) comes down to physical assets, operational control, and unit economics. While stellar earnings from AWS, Azure, and GCP prove commercial AI demand is real, hyperscalers face severe bottlenecks in physical power and time-to-compute with grid queues stretching past five years, forcing them to outsource to partners who already hold energized capacity.Unlike CoreWeave and Nebius, which rely heavily on an asset-light model of leasing colocation space from third-party landlords (a strategy that eats margins and limits control, as we saw with MARA during the Bitcoin mining cycle), IREN vertically owns its land, grid connections, and data center buildings. This structural difference drives drastically superior economics, as in-house AI cloud infrastructure generates roughly $10M per megawatt in revenue compared to just $1.5M–$2M per megawatt for basic colocation.So while CoreWeave and Nebius might look priced to perfection, IREN has traditionally traded at a deep discount despite holding an industry-leading 5.8 GW pipeline of secured grid power. That market dislocation is precisely where the long-term opportunity sits.
0
|
0
FIG logo
FIG·Figma is still elite
Thanks for the update. Figma is a great product and it’s undeniable the business is still growing. The stock is now closer to a reasonable valuation than the post IPO hype. ​ However, the big question for me is existential and comes down to durability: can Figma keep compounding as AI makes it possible to generate websites and designs end to end (e.g., Claude Opus 4.6)? ​ If you work in design/product, do you think digital products will be built the same way in five years? I don’t! And the key unknown is how the workflow changes, and whether Figma remains at the center of that new process. I truly don’t know, and I don’t think anyone does. That uncertainty (and the broader market anxiety about AI disrupting software moats) is what keeps me cautious. Yes, the market may be overreacting, but I’d rather focus on clearer narratives than take that bet. ​ Personally, unless the stock becomes truly cheap, I’m staying on the sidelines. Curios to hear your thought about longer term durability of the company.
1
|
0
TSLA logo
TSLA·Tesla’s Nvidia Moment – The AI & Robotics Inflection Point
Great question. Hitting $425 aligns with my broader thesis, but it also calls for a reassessment of risk/reward at this level. When I set the $425 fair value, it was based on re-rating catalysts like autonomy progress, energy scaling, and stronger-than-expected car deliveries, areas where Tesla has delivered faster than many anticipated. From here, I see a few options: -Short-term traders may take profits, and a pullback to the high $300s (380–399) wouldn’t surprise me. -Medium-term investors (12–24 months) can justify holding, as the real repricing is likely when robotaxi deployments scale beyond pilot cities (2026) and Megablock deliveries kick in. -Long-term holders (5–10 years) will view $425 as just another milestone on the path to Tesla becoming a global energy + autonomy platform (2030+). Regarding earlier comments about overoptimism: I haven’t seen evidence that my original narrative was “delusional.” Many investors have lost faith in Tesla’s claims or Musk himself either due to dislike or impatience over delayed timelines. Autonomy is complex, and technological and regulatory challenges take time. I believe the pieces are in place: the vision-only approach plus neural networks is the right path. Some point to Waymo as being ahead in deployed taxis and miles, but they miss the scalability step. Once Tesla’s FSD is fully functional (v14 onwards), scaling will be extremely rapid. Tesla has the production capacity to deploy vast numbers of robotaxis across U.S. cities, and the vision-only approach keeps trip prices far lower than competitors like Uber or Waymo. Finally, federal regulations could accelerate adoption further. This doesn’t mean there won’t be volatility, but the story is evolving exactly as I anticipated. Tesla may appear “behind” Waymo on some numbers, but once the system is fully operational, scaling will be unprecedented. In my opinion that's going to happen in 2026. That’s the part many investors don’t yet fully appreciate.
0
|
0