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Founder of StoxEurope, an independent platform for transparent European equity valuation. I use DCF, DDM, RIM and peer analysis to test assumptions—not to give stock tips.

https://stoxeurope.com/
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AD·AD: Stabilizing Margins And Share Repurchases Will Support Long-Term Value
I ran Ahold Delhaize through a three-model triangulation — DCF, dividend discount, and residual income — with every assumption published and tagged as fact or assumption. The interesting result isn't a number, it's a disagreement: the point estimates run from €20,03 (RIM) through €27,64 (DDM) to €64,91 (DCF), and the pairwise overlaps form two disjoint segments — €20,36–€21,54 and €39,60–€44,56. Between €21,54 and €39,60, no two of the three models agree. [img]https://staticm.fastcomments.com/1784197249786-1000x1000-ad-range-strip.png[/img] Most of the spread is lens properties rather than company drama. A dividend model structurally can't see the roughly half of shareholder returns Ahold pays through buybacks. The book is ~96 % goodwill from the 2016 merger, which pins the residual-income reading low. And ~83 % of the DCF's value sits beyond the explicit five years, so it leans hard on the terminal assumptions. Three honest lenses, three honest answers — the disagreement is the information. Disclosures Position disclosure: The author holds no position in Ahold Delhaize as at 9 July 2026. This valuation is a StoxEurope opinion, based on honest research. Mistakes are possible. This is not investment advice. Do your own research. This article demonstrates a valuation methodology. It is not an investment recommendation, is not personalised to any reader's circumstances, and every figure in it depends entirely on the stated assumptions
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SIP·Simply Wall Street warning makes no sense !
Update on the April 27th warning issue by Simply Wall Street : Key Highlights ✅ Strong start across the board — production and pricing both ahead of Q1 2025, giving a solid platform for the full year. ✅ Forward sales well-positioned — 44% of expected volumes locked in at USD 1,046/t average (vs. 38% at USD 1,030/t at the same point in 2025). Papua New Guinea is 84% hedged at USD 1,166/t. ✅ Full-year guidance maintained — ~470,000 t CPO target unchanged; recurring net profit expected broadly in line with 2025's record results. ✅ PNG recovery on track — continuing rebound after the 2023 volcano eruption, with own plantation production up +15%. ⚠️ Cost headwinds — fertiliser and energy costs are rising, partly driven by the Iran conflict and Middle East disruption. South Sumatra's young plantations add full cost base with still-limited volumes. ⚠️ Banana weakness — Motobé (-36.4%) and Lumen (-13.5%) dragged the segment; irrigation systems now installed to support recovery. 🌱 Sustainability — two notable initiatives: a landscape coalition in Mukomuko (Indonesia) and a citizen science biodiversity programme with Borneo Futures yielding 8,000+ fauna observations including 9 endangered species. 💰 Capex — USD 100–120M investment programme for 2026, expected to be fully self-funded from operating cash flow, with net financial position set to further improve vs. end-2025. There are some concern guidances, but these look natural to me. The warning makes no sense to me, and I remain confident.
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