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DSK·2 months agoThe Candle That Keeps Burning: A Six-Month Check-In on Dusk Group

Having looked at this, I cannot see FY26 revenue beyond $144m and NPAT of $5m giving an eps of 8c and a FF divvy of 6c. Its good if you seek an income stream but there are the risks of discretionary retail at a time when that risk is growing, not abating. Too risky at this price and will reconsider at 66c

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AQZ·3 months agoExcellent management with a great sense of buying capital assets at the bottom of the cycle and deploying them against solid revenue streams

Given events over the past 6 months of no resolution to the problems at hand I have reduced my fair value to $0.94

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HIT·3 months agoA baby being thrown out with the AI bathwater?

The company itself has flagged a slower, more competitive market. Interestingly it referred to its strong cash balance and its ability to buy struggling competitors. A quick review of margins certainly suggests the salad days are in the past. I see calling revenue and falling margins in the next few years. The business will survive, but the market is valuing it fairly around $1

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CAA·4 months agoCapral's Future PE Will Shine at 5.51x in a Year

Capral is a high-quality, asset-backed industrial (specializing in aluminum extrusion) with: • Strong free cash flow • No physical tax for 3 years as it uses up tax losses from over 20 years ago • A fortress balance sheet • A shareholder base anchored by deep value institutions (notably Allan Gray) Using updated CY25 equity of $244m and 16.607m shares (BVPS of $14.69), intrinsic value today is: Intrinsic Value (DCF + Accretion): $13–14 per share Fair Value Range: $13–15 per share Takeover Value: $17.5–19 per share Any bidder must offer ≥$17 to win Allan Gray. Presently the company is in huge buy back mode which underpins the share price. It will pay out around 40% of earnings in buy backs and an unfranked dividend. It owns 27% of the Australian market and is actively buying independent distribution outlets to enhance its revenue base. It will be a major beneficiary once the domestic free standing home constructions get going again.

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AQZ·9 months agoExcellent management with a great sense of buying capital assets at the bottom of the cycle and deploying them against solid revenue streams

The shock FY26 profit downgrade of 7/11/25 forces me to review my intrinsic value from $3.91 bank to the latest - and fully tested - net tangible asset per share of $2.92. The market has overreacted to A 20% profit downgrade by punishing the share price by 42%. That management (CEO & CFO) have so understated costs and scheduling is a worry - and the CFO has been effectively fired. the CEO is merely bringing forward his previously announced retirement date. I believe these matters - now exposed - are mostly overcommable by passing costs onto the customers and greater cost vigilance and economies of scale.

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