Robust California Data Centers Will Boost Grid Modernization

Key Takeaways

• Structural demand growth from technology and data centers, plus regulatory-driven grid investments, supports expanding revenues and stable, long-term earnings growth prospects.
  
• Operational efficiencies, wildfire risk mitigation, and prudent capital strategy position PG&E for improved margins, credit quality, and sustained shareholder returns.
  
• Unfavorable regulations, wildfire risks, affordability pressures, infrastructural investment challenges, and rising distributed energy competition threaten PG&E's future earnings, margins, and long-term revenue growth.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, engages in the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers in northern and central California, the United States.

• Sustained and accelerating demand for electricity driven by large-scale data center and technology sector growth in California-reflected in PG&E's 10 gigawatt data center development pipeline-should drive structural increases in load, supporting higher long-term revenues and improved fixed cost recovery as this demand ramps through 2027–2029.
  
• Expanding opportunities for capital investment in grid modernization, wildfire mitigation, and resilience-fueled by both regulatory mandates and the need to serve new electrification and decarbonization requirements-position PG&E to grow its rate base and regulated earnings steadily over the next decade.
  
• Ongoing and scalable reductions in non-fuel O&M expenses through technology, process improvement, and waste elimination, as seen in sustained annual savings above $200 million and a 2%+ ongoing annual reduction target, are likely to continue expanding net margins and cost competitiveness versus peers.
  
• Anticipated improvements in wildfire liability protections and cost recovery frameworks-via legislative reform to the wildfire fund (AB 1054) and enhancements in comprehensive risk mitigation-can materially reduce tail risk, financing costs, and earnings volatility, improving both net margins and access to low-cost capital over time.
  
• Strong alignment of capital strategy and balance sheet flexibility, including no further equity issuance through at least 2028 and a pathway toward investment-grade credit ratings, will lower borrowing costs and enable consistent long-term EPS and dividend growth, differentiating PG&E within the sector.

PG&E Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming PG&E's revenue will grow by 4.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.6% today to 14.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $4.0 billion (and earnings per share of $1.8) by about August 2028, up from $2.4 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 14.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Electric Utilities industry at 20.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.82% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

PG&E Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Persistent legislative and regulatory uncertainty around wildfire liability reforms (such as modifications to AB 1054 and potential requirements for upfront or ongoing IOU contributions to the wildfire fund) creates risk that unfavorable policy outcomes could materially increase costs, limit cost recovery, or raise capital needs-negatively affecting long-term net margins and earnings.
  
• Accelerating climate change continues to heighten the frequency and severity of wildfires in California, directly threatening PG&E's operational liabilities, insurance and mitigation expenses, and exposure to catastrophic losses-potentially depressing earnings and increasing financial volatility over the long term.
  
• The affordability conversation in California is intensifying, with a meaningful portion of customer bills being policy-driven and substantial legislative pressure to cap, reduce, or reallocate costs; future regulatory decisions could limit PG&E's ability to recover costs, constrain allowed returns, or force structural changes that cut into revenue and profit growth.
  
• Large-scale infrastructure investments (e.g., undergrounding, grid "hardening," and data center load growth) require sustained capital expenditures, but if regulatory bodies reduce approved CapEx, limit cost recovery, or impose stricter prudency reviews (as was referenced with SCE's recent decision), PG&E could face margin compression or fail to achieve expected earnings growth.
  
• Increased competition and customer adoption of distributed and behind-the-meter generation (such as rooftop solar and batteries), as well as potential efficiency-driven flattening of electricity demand, threatens PG&E's long-term top-line growth and could erode future revenues even as required grid investments and operational costs remain high.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $20.6 for PG&E based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $24.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $27.6 billion, earnings will come to $4.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
  
• Given the current share price of $15.13, the analyst price target of $20.6 is 26.6% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.