Industrial Investments And Electrification Will Expand Long-Term Demand

Key Takeaways

• Strong regional growth and electrification trends are fueling higher electricity demand, supporting recurring revenue and long-term business expansion.
  
• Planned infrastructure investments and regulatory support position IDACORP for enhanced earnings stability and potential upside from underestimated future load growth.
  
• Heavy dependence on weather-sensitive hydro, regulatory uncertainties, and rising infrastructure costs threaten earnings stability and may erode returns if risks materialize or are not mitigated.

Catalysts

Engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, purchase, and sale of electric energy in the United States.

• Robust customer and population growth in IDACORP's service area, combined with significant new large-scale industrial investments (e.g., Micron fabs, data centers), suggests sustained above-average electricity demand well into the 2030s, supporting long-term revenue growth.
  
• Electrification trends, including increased deployment of EV fast-charging infrastructure and broader electrification of end uses, are driving incremental kWh sales and recurring revenue, with large unforecasted load growth potential from new projects not yet included in official load projections.
  
• Massive planned capital investments in transmission lines, energy storage, and generation assets-supported by a constructive regulatory environment and recent rate case filings-are set to expand IDACORP's rate base, enhancing regulated returns and long-term earnings growth.
  
• Ongoing national and regional focus on clean energy transition and grid modernization, including federally supported incentives, positions IDACORP to successfully grow its asset base, take advantage of tax credits, and enhance earnings stability and net margins through cost recovery.
  
• Conservative IRP forecasts and increasing inquiry volume for new large loads indicate load growth and capital needs may be underestimated, offering potential positive surprises to future revenue and earnings as more projects materialize and are reflected in future regulatory filings.

IDACORP Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming IDACORP's revenue will grow by 8.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 17.0% today to 18.8% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $432.1 million (and earnings per share of $7.29) by about August 2028, up from $306.9 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 22.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Electric Utilities industry at 20.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.46% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

IDACORP Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• IDACORP's reliance on hydroelectric generation and sensitivity to weather patterns, such as low precipitation and drought, increase volatility in earnings and pose a risk to net margins if unfavorable climate trends persist or worsen.
  
• The company's ongoing and accelerating capital investment needs (especially in transmission, storage, and new gas-fired or renewable generation), driven by rapid load growth and new large customer projects, require significant financing; if regulators disallow cost recovery, or if increased debt and equity issuance dilute returns, future earnings and return on equity (ROE) may be pressured.
  
• Uncertainty around regulatory approval processes, including the outcomes of pending rate cases, the introduction of new depreciation and interest trackers, and the use of additional tax credits, creates potential risk to revenue and net income if regulatory lag persists or if lower allowed ROEs or unfavorable terms are set.
  
• Delays, permitting challenges, or unfavorable economic impacts (such as tariffs or executive orders impacting projects like Jackalope Wind) could force a shift in planned resource mix, leading to increased reliance on gas or alternative resources; this could result in higher O&M expenses, capital costs, or stranded assets, negatively affecting margins and future profitability.
  
• Growing exposure to labor cost increases, wildfire mitigation, and insurance expenses, driven by the need to maintain and harden infrastructure against extreme weather and operational risks, may erode net margins and reduce the potential for future earnings growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $129.667 for IDACORP based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.3 billion, earnings will come to $432.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
• Given the current share price of $126.9, the analyst price target of $129.67 is 2.1% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.