Supply Chain Transformation Will Strengthen Future Prospects

Key Takeaways

• Strategic acquisitions and capital deployment initiatives are expected to drive future earnings growth and enhance shareholder value.
  
• Ryder's shift to asset-light models is projected to improve net margins and support consistent revenue growth.
  
• Ryder faces challenges such as freight recession, execution risks from acquisitions, and reliance on vehicle sales proceeds amidst demand uncertainties affecting revenue growth and profitability.

Catalysts

Operates as a logistics and transportation company worldwide.

• Ryder's operational excellence and customer-centric innovation are leading to increased full-cycle returns, which is expected to enhance future revenue and profitability.
  
• The shift in revenue mix towards asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses is forecasted to improve net margins, as these segments are positioned for higher growth rates than before.
  
• Transformative changes in Ryder's business model and strategic acquisitions are driving robust earnings growth and stable operating cash flow, which are likely to support future earnings growth even during economic downturns.
  
• Ryder's proactive approach to capital deployment, including strategic acquisitions and share repurchase programs, is expected to significantly drive future EPS growth.
  
• Improvements in the operational cash flow and debt capacity of the business create a strong foundation for future capital expansion, which is projected to positively impact future revenue and earnings.

Ryder System Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ryder System's revenue will grow by 8.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.8% today to 4.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $692.8 million (and earnings per share of $17.21) by about December 2027, up from $476.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.3x on those 2027 earnings, down from 14.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Transportation industry at 28.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.62% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.1%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ryder System Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• With ongoing freight recession and weak market conditions in rental and used vehicle sales, Ryder's revenues and net margins might be adversely impacted due to lower demand and fewer gains from asset sales.
  
• Ryder is experiencing execution risks associated with acquisitions, such as Cardinal Logistics, which may impact integration costs and ultimately profitability and earnings if not managed well.
  
• The company's dependence on used vehicle sales proceeds to maintain cash flow stability suggests vulnerability; a prolonged downturn or slower-than-expected recovery in vehicle pricing could negatively affect cash flow and net margins.
  
• Slowing lease sales activity due to economic uncertainty and delayed customer decisions presents a risk to revenue growth, potentially reducing the operating leverage Ryder seeks to achieve through its balanced growth strategy.
  
• While the forecast for rental and lease capital spending is unchanged, ongoing low demand and utilization levels signal potential risks to future earnings, as full recovery in rental demand is uncertain and may take longer than anticipated.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $159.13 for Ryder System based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $183.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $136.93.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $15.7 billion, earnings will come to $692.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
• Given the current share price of $161.95, the analyst's price target of $159.13 is 1.8% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.