Sunbelt Acquisitions Will Boost Experiential Travel Despite Risks

Key Takeaways

• Strategic investments and market positioning enable Ryman to benefit from high demand for experiential travel, meetings, and entertainment, supporting revenue and margin growth.
  
• Concentration in expanding, tourism-driven Sunbelt markets with limited new supply boosts pricing power and asset values, ensuring resilient and predictable earnings.
  
• Intensifying competition, geographic concentration, rising costs, labor challenges, and evolving regulations threaten Ryman's revenue stability, operating margins, and future financial flexibility.

Catalysts

Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (NYSE: RHP) is a leading lodging and hospitality real estate investment trust that specializes in upscale convention center resorts and entertainment experiences.

• Recent acquisitions and ongoing capital investments (e.g., JW Marriott Desert Ridge, meeting space upgrades at Gaylord properties) put Ryman in a strong position to capitalize on renewed appetite for large-scale experiential travel and gatherings, supporting revenue growth and long-term cash flow.
  
• Visible increases in advance group booking activity and robust pipeline for 2026 and 2027 indicate sustained demand for destination meetings and conventions as organizations prioritize periodic large-scale events, providing predictability for future revenues and earnings.
  
• Continued strong performance in leisure and live entertainment segments (Opry Entertainment, festivals, experiential hotel programming) leverages the growing trend toward experiential spending, enabling further margin expansion as non-room, higher-margin revenues rise.
  
• Ryman's portfolio concentration in high-growth, Sunbelt and tourism-driven markets (Nashville, Orlando, Phoenix, etc.), which benefit from population growth and urban migration, positions the company well for resilient RevPAR and above-average occupancy, supporting asset values and net income.
  
• Supply/demand imbalances in key markets-where new convention hotel supply is limited but demand catalysts (e.g., infrastructure, new stadiums, expanded airport capacity in Nashville) are accelerating-create favorable pricing dynamics and high barriers to entry, underpinning long-term NOI and FFO growth.

Ryman Hospitality Properties Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ryman Hospitality Properties's revenue will grow by 7.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 10.7% today to 10.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $302.4 million (and earnings per share of $3.8) by about August 2028, up from $262.5 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $249.8 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 37.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 23.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hotel and Resort REITs industry at 27.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.18% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.88%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ryman Hospitality Properties Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Ryman faces ongoing risk from high and increasing competition in key markets such as Nashville and Texas, where the influx of new hotel supply (including short-term rentals and boutique accommodations) is outpacing demand growth in the near term, leading to downward pressure on transient room rates and potentially impacting revenue and net margins.
  
• The company's significant reliance on large group/convention business and its geographic concentration-particularly in markets like Nashville, Orlando, and Phoenix-makes Ryman vulnerable to localized economic downturns, regulatory changes, or external shocks (e.g., natural disasters, pandemics), which could result in revenue fluctuations and cash flow volatility.
  
• Structurally higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and increased capital expenditures for ongoing renovations, property enhancements, and acquisitions could raise financing costs, compress free cash flow, and limit dividend growth, negatively affecting earnings and overall financial flexibility.
  
• Labor cost inflation and staffing challenges, including planned wage and benefit increases due to collective bargaining agreements, are already pressuring operating margins; if labor shortages and wage growth persist industrywide, profitability may be further eroded.
  
• Heightened energy, climate, and sustainability pressures, alongside evolving regulatory and tax environments (including property taxes and zoning), could drive up operating and compliance costs for Ryman's large, energy-intensive assets, challenging net margins and future asset valuations.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $116.167 for Ryman Hospitality Properties based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $130.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $108.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.0 billion, earnings will come to $302.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 37.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.9%.
• Given the current share price of $97.44, the analyst price target of $116.17 is 16.1% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.