Investments In Technology And Bonds Will Drive Future Efficiencies In Insurance

Key Takeaways

• Ambitious growth targets and improved underwriting performance aim to boost future revenue and enhance net margins.
  
• Tech transformation and bond portfolio positioning to drive efficiencies, reduce costs, and elevate investment income.
  
• Higher expense ratio and technology investment costs could impact net margins, while maturing investments and flat specialty product growth raise future revenue concerns.

Catalysts

Through its subsidiaries, provides specialty property and casualty insurance, and reinsurance products worldwide.

• Global Indemnity Group has set a goal to grow its insurance business at a compound annual growth rate of at least 10%, which, if achieved, could significantly boost the company’s future revenue.
  
• The company aims to maintain a combined ratio in the low 90s, notably reporting a 93.9% combined ratio for Penn-America, signaling improved underwriting performance that can enhance future net margins.
  
• Investment in tech transformation, including moving to the cloud and implementing new transactional systems, is expected to drive operational efficiencies and reduce costs, improving net margins and earnings.
  
• Increased investment yields due to positioning the bond portfolio to take advantage of higher market rates, and plans to invest in longer duration, higher yield assets could further elevate investment income and overall earnings.
  
• The company is monitoring discretionary capital growth, implying readiness to pursue growth opportunities and potentially higher returns on equity, which can positively influence future earnings.

Global Indemnity Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Global Indemnity Group's revenue will grow by 7.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.0% today to 10.9% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $59.8 million (and earnings per share of $4.3) by about December 2027, up from $39.7 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.2x on those 2027 earnings, up from 12.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Insurance industry at 13.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.55% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.92%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Global Indemnity Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company's expense ratio is higher than the long-term target, with a current nine-month ratio of 38.2%, which could impact net margins if not reduced to 37% or lower.
  
• The specialty products business remains a work in progress, with flat gross premium through nine months, potentially affecting overall revenue growth targets.
  
• The company has approximately $480 million in investments maturing in Q4 2024, and uncertainties in reinvesting at favorable longer durations may influence future earnings.
  
• As a result of winding down non-core operations, gross premiums decreased to $294 million from $332 million year-over-year, impacting revenue from discontinued business lines.
  
• The ongoing technology transformation and infrastructure investment could lead to short-term cost increases, impacting net profit margins if not managed effectively.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $55.0 for Global Indemnity Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $550.0 million, earnings will come to $59.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.9%.
• Given the current share price of $36.5, the analyst's price target of $55.0 is 33.6% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.