Last Update 07 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 3.41%

BRBR: Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside Amid Competitive Margin Pressures

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on BellRing Brands by about $1.33 per share to roughly $37.73. This reflects lowered expectations for revenue growth and margins amid rising competition and input cost pressures, even as they continue to highlight the support from Premier Protein's brand equity and the potential for longer term growth normalization.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a more balanced, wait and see stance on BellRing Brands, with price targets reset lower but overall views still divided between long term growth optimism and near term execution risk.

Bullish analysts emphasize that the current valuation already discounts many of the competitive and cost concerns, while bearish analysts focus on fading visibility into key retail partners and the risk that margins remain under pressure longer than expected.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts argue that Premier Protein's brand equity and category leadership justify premium valuation multiples versus smaller, newer entrants, even after the recent derating in price targets.
Several research notes describe the latest quarter as solid relative to low expectations, with initial fiscal 2026 guidance and long term sales targets still consistent with a mid to high single digit growth algorithm over time.
Forecasts calling for sales to accelerate back toward a 7 percent to 9 percent long term range after an initial slowdown support the view that current share price levels undervalue BellRing's normalized growth potential.
Some bullish analysts see clearer plans to counter competitive threats and invest in marketing as positioning the company to protect market share and ultimately drive operating leverage once near term cost headwinds ease.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight the reset to fiscal 2026 revenue and EBITDA expectations, with some now modeling low single digit growth and even negative EBITDA growth versus prior consensus, which weighs on valuation support.
There is growing concern around limited visibility into two of BellRing's largest customers, including warehouse club channels, raising the risk that category resets or private label expansion could slow growth further.
Several notes point to an increasingly competitive ready to drink protein shake backdrop, where higher promotional and trade spending may be needed to defend share, compressing margins and returns on invested capital.
Views that input cost inflation, tariffs, and elevated marketing investment will persist into fiscal 2026 lead more cautious analysts to question how quickly BellRing can rebuild margin and reach its long term profitability targets.

What's in the News

BellRing Brands announced fiscal 2026 earnings guidance, targeting net sales of $2.41 billion to $2.49 billion, implying 4% to 8% year over year growth. This frames investor expectations for a moderation in top line expansion. (Key Developments)
The Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase plan on November 19, 2025, allowing the company to buy back up to $600 million of its shares over two years. This signals management confidence and provides a potential support for the share price. (Key Developments)
From July 1, 2025 to August 29, 2025, BellRing repurchased 3,082,892 shares, or 2.45% of shares outstanding, for $123.38 million. This brought total buybacks under the March 6, 2025 authorization to 4,642,413 shares, or 3.67%, for $226.34 million. (Key Developments)
From September 2, 2025 to November 19, 2025, the company completed an additional tranche, repurchasing 3,283,438 shares, or 2.61% of shares outstanding, for $123.5 million under the buyback announced on September 2, 2025. This further reduced the public float and increased per share metrics. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Reduced from approximately $39.07 to $37.73 per share, reflecting a modest downward revision in intrinsic value estimates.
Discount Rate: Adjusted slightly lower from about 8.08% to 8.06%, indicating a marginally reduced perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth: Lowered from roughly 6.07% to 5.54%, signaling tempered expectations for BellRing's medium term top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Reduced from about 11.61% to 10.05%, implying a notable downgrade in projected profitability and margin sustainability.
Future P/E: Increased from around 14.9x to 16.9x, suggesting a higher valuation multiple being applied to updated forward earnings forecasts.

Category leadership and expanded retail presence drive sustained revenue growth and margin gains through greater scale and distribution.
Innovation, supply chain optimization, and targeted marketing strengthen brand equity, address evolving consumer trends, and support long-term earnings growth.
Margin pressure, heavy competition, brand concentration risk, and regulatory threats may limit profit growth and revenue stability despite increased marketing investments.

Catalysts

About BellRing Brands

Provides various nutrition products in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating household penetration and distribution gains in the ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shake category, which still has significant "runway" as only about half of U.S. households currently consume RTDs, with Premier Protein positioned as the category leader-expected to drive sustained topline growth.
Retailers are allocating more shelf space and expanding displays for high-protein, convenient nutrition products, creating a structural tailwind for category expansion and enabling incremental volume and market share gains, directly benefiting revenue growth and gross margin through improved scale.
Expansion into new product formats (single-serve, non-dairy almond milk shakes, indulgence lines) and increased innovation pipelines allow BellRing to address evolving consumer preferences and new consumption occasions, supporting both revenue growth and margin accretion as more premium, differentiated offerings gain traction.
Strategic investments in regional co-manufacturing networks and supply chain optimization have unlocked greater capacity and operational agility, positioning the company to capitalize on upcoming distribution opportunities and deliver enhanced cost efficiencies for improved net margins.
Ongoing investment in brand support, digital marketing, and omnichannel merchandising-especially modernizing packaging and targeting younger consumers-leverages long-term trends in health, wellness, and digital commerce to strengthen brand equity, accelerate household buy rates, and support higher-margin direct-to-consumer channels, driving long-term earnings growth.

BellRing Brands Earnings and Revenue Growth

BellRing Brands Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BellRing Brands's revenue will grow by 8.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.3% today to 11.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $312.5 million (and earnings per share of $2.64) by about September 2028, up from $228.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 20.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Personal Products industry at 22.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.18% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.16%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BellRing Brands Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Rising input cost inflation and continued cost headwinds-especially from whey protein and tariffs on imported dairy-are driving down gross margins, with management indicating these will impact results through at least fiscal 2026, threatening sustained margin compression and net earnings growth.
Intensifying competition in the RTD protein shake category, as both large CPG incumbents and new entrants secure additional retail space (particularly in club channels), may require higher promotional spending and could drive increased price competition, pressuring both revenue growth and profitability.
Heavy reliance on Premier Protein as the core brand creates significant concentration risk if demand shifts, market share erodes due to evolving consumer preferences, or future innovation fails to resonate, which could materially impact top-line growth and earnings stability.
Increased promotional and marketing investments necessary to maintain shelf space and consumer engagement in a crowded, innovation-driven market may offset gains in operating leverage, constraining improvements in net margins and profit growth.
Ongoing regulatory threats-including the risk of higher tariffs on key ingredients from New Zealand/EU and the potential for future policy changes targeting nutrition labeling or sugar/protein content-could drive structural increases in costs of goods or restrict product formulations, impacting both gross margin and future revenue potential.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $52.5 for BellRing Brands based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $72.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $40.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.8 billion, earnings will come to $312.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
Given the current share price of $37.71, the analyst price target of $52.5 is 28.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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