Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.70%

NVST: Tighter EPS Guidance And Profitability Improvements Will Shape 2025 Outlook

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Envista Holdings to approximately $22.15 per share from $22.00, citing the company’s stronger than expected core performance, improving profitability, and tightened FY25 EPS and sales growth guidance as support for a slightly higher fair value and future earnings multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts view Envista’s latest quarter and updated outlook as a mixed but generally constructive signal, with operational execution trending ahead of expectations even as headline results modestly lag consensus.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that core growth, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS all exceeded internal expectations, reinforcing confidence in management’s ability to execute and support a higher earnings multiple over time.
The return to profitability in Spark aligners and continued share gains in that business are seen as important proof points for Envista’s growth algorithm and margin expansion potential.
Positive growth across all major businesses suggests a more resilient revenue base, which supports the modestly higher price target and reduces perceived downside risk to FY25 estimates.
The narrowed FY25 EPS range is interpreted as increased visibility on earnings delivery, which can warrant a tighter discount to peers and support valuation as the company delivers on guidance.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts note that Q3 EPS of $0.32 came in slightly below the $0.33 consensus, with revenue also missing expectations, reinforcing concerns that top line momentum may not be robust enough to justify a more aggressive rerating.
The trimmed sales growth outlook to about 4 percent, from a prior 3 percent to 4 percent range, is viewed by some as only modestly improved and still below high-growth medtech peers, limiting upside to long term growth assumptions.
While profitability is improving, skeptics question the durability of margin gains in a competitive dental market, which could cap the achievable earnings multiple if cost efficiencies prove harder to sustain.
The incremental nature of the price target increase suggests that, despite better core performance, valuation already reflects a meaningful portion of the anticipated operational improvements, leaving less room for multiple expansion without stronger outperformance.

What's in the News

Envista narrowed its FY25 EPS outlook to a range of $1.10 to $1.15 from $1.05 to $1.15, with consensus at $1.11, and refined its sales growth view to about 4 percent from a prior 3 percent to 4 percent range (Periodicals)
The company reported Q3 EPS of $0.32 versus $0.33 consensus and revenue of $670 million versus $682.9 million expected, while highlighting that core growth, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS all beat internal expectations and that Spark aligners returned to profitability with continued share gains (Periodicals)
Envista raised its 2025 core sales growth guidance to approximately 4 percent, up from a prior 3 percent to 4 percent range, which the company described as reflecting greater confidence in its medium term growth outlook (Key Developments)
Between June 28, 2025 and September 26, 2025, the company repurchased about 2.1 million shares for $41.47 million, completing a total buyback of roughly 8.0 million shares, or 4.68 percent of shares outstanding, for $141.92 million under its February 5, 2025 authorization (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Risen slightly from approximately $22.00 to about $22.15 per share, reflecting incremental improvements in the valuation model.
Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 8.81 percent to roughly 8.76 percent, indicating a modest reduction in the perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 3.71 percent, suggesting a stable outlook for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at roughly 9.13 percent, implying no material revision to long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Risen slightly from about 15.18x to roughly 15.26x, pointing to a modestly higher forward earnings multiple in the valuation framework.

Strong growth in emerging markets and digital product innovation position Envista for balanced geographic expansion and improved margins through increased global demand for dental care.
Strategic partnerships and operational optimization support predictable recurring revenue and sustained margin improvements amid dental industry consolidation and digital transformation.
Revenue and margin are under sustained pressure from Chinese procurement reforms, trade barriers, competition in digital dental products, economic cyclicality, and currency volatility.

Catalysts

About Envista Holdings

Develops, manufactures, markets, and sells dental products in the United States, China, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerated double-digit growth in emerging markets (Latin America, Indo Pacific, Middle East, Africa) and ongoing manufacturing expansion in China positions Envista to benefit from expanding middle classes and increasing global demand for dental care, likely driving stronger international revenue and more balanced geographic growth.
Increasing R&D investment (up 14% year-over-year) and successful launches of digital and AI-driven products (e.g., DTX Studio Clinic with AI, DEXIS CDCTs, Spark product line) enhance Envista's ability to capitalize on growing demand for digital dentistry, supporting both future revenue growth and gross margin expansion.
The growing link between oral health and general well-being, echoed by heightened consumer awareness, supports stable or rising demand for preventive and routine dental care equipment and services, providing resilience to Envista's consumables and recurring revenue, underpinning more predictable earnings and cash flow.
Strategic focus on expanding relationships with Dental Service Organizations (DSOs)-evidenced by full integration of digital solutions in over 1,000 DSO sites-positions Envista to benefit from industry consolidation and centralized purchasing trends, which should drive volume growth and support net margin improvement.
Ongoing cost reductions (notably 15% G&A reduction in the first half), coupled with operational optimization and unit cost reductions (especially within Spark), are catalysts for sustained margin improvement and future EPS growth, as scale and digital adoption continue.

Envista Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

Envista Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Envista Holdings's revenue will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.1% today to 5.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $144.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.49) by about September 2028, up from $53.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $181.3 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-30.0 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 62.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 28.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.44% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Envista Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying pricing pressures stemming from China's Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) reforms, particularly in the Brackets & Wires and Implants segments, are causing significant revenue declines in those geographies and introduce ongoing uncertainty regarding revenue and margin recovery as new rounds of VBP are implemented.
Tariff volatility and the increasing burden of global trade barriers (notably US-China tariffs) are introducing direct costs ($15M–$20M headwind in 2H25 alone), requiring costly supply chain adjustments and squeezing margins, especially if mitigation strategies (cost reduction, pricing) prove less effective in the future.
The company's growth in high-margin Spark (Clear Aligner) is closely tied to continued cost reductions and unit growth, but a failure to maintain innovation or margin improvement amid growing competition in digital dentistry and aligners could negatively impact future revenue and gross margin expansion.
Heavy reliance on macroeconomic stability and slow dental market growth (described as "slow but stable" and dependent on consumer confidence and interest rates) leaves the company exposed to cyclicality, especially if discretionary dental spending declines due to economic pressures, which could impact equipment sales and overall revenue growth.
Ongoing FX volatility-resulting in material quarter-on-quarter transaction losses and margin headwinds-demonstrates vulnerability to currency swings, and if these persist or worsen, they could continue to materially impact EBITDA and net earnings despite some hedging measures being introduced.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.417 for Envista Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.8 billion, earnings will come to $144.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.5%.
Given the current share price of $20.3, the analyst price target of $21.42 is 5.2% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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