Execution Challenges Will Shift Outlook For Global Plasma And Hemostasis Expansion

Key Takeaways

• Accelerated innovation, portfolio transformation, and software adoption are driving share gains, margin expansion, and sustained revenue growth across both plasma and hospital markets.
  
• Demographic shifts and increased demand for blood management position core products for long-term growth, while targeted interventions aim to revitalize underperforming segments.
  
• Heavy dependence on a few U.S.-focused products, intensifying competition, and limited global presence threaten earnings stability, market share, and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

A medical technology company, provides a suite of hospital technologies solutions in the United States and internationally.

• Rapid innovation and increased adoption of advanced plasma collection systems (NexSys with Persona and Express Plus), as well as new software contracts securing ~80% market share, are driving share gains and supporting double-digit organic growth ex-CSL in the plasma segment; these trends are expected to boost both revenue and net margins as upgrades and center conversions accelerate through FY26 and into FY27.
  
• Rising utilization of TEG-based hemostasis management-fueled by the recent launch of the heparinase neutralization cartridge and ongoing conversion of hospital accounts from lab-based to point-of-care systems-positions the business to capture a greater share of a growing mid-single-digit US and global market, which should propel recurring revenue and support multi-year earnings growth.
  
• Ongoing demographic shifts, such as an aging global population and increased prevalence of chronic diseases requiring more blood management and plasma-derived therapies, point toward a secular upward trend in long-term demand for Haemonetics' core products; this creates a sustained tailwind for revenue growth across hospital and plasma businesses.
  
• Enterprise-wide portfolio transformation-highlighted by the divestiture of low-margin businesses, disciplined capital deployment, and ongoing investment in automation and digital solutions-is driving substantial gross and operating margin expansion (guidance of 26–27% for FY26) and is likely to support further improvements in net margins and free cash flow conversion.
  
• Strategic execution to improve underperforming interventional technologies (notably VASCADE) via new leadership, targeted commercial initiatives, and a focus on higher margin and faster-growing market segments (like vascular closure for electrophysiology procedures) is expected to enable the segment to recover and contribute meaningfully to future revenue growth and margin expansion.

Haemonetics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Haemonetics's revenue will grow by 2.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.1% today to 17.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $257.9 million (and earnings per share of $4.92) by about September 2028, up from $163.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $209.0 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 16.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 29.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 4.08% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.42%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Haemonetics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Increasing competition in the vascular closure and interventional technology markets, including price-based competitors and legacy players, could pressure Haemonetics' market share, force price concessions, and negatively impact revenue and net margins if executional fixes do not restore growth above market rates.
  
• Heavy reliance on three core products (NexSys, TEG, and VASCADE), each highly concentrated in the U.S. market, exposes Haemonetics to sales volatility and execution risk-especially if ongoing challenges with VASCADE persist or if a product loses relevance or encounters new regulatory hurdles, threatening earnings stability.
  
• Temporary declines in plasma and blood center reported revenues-driven by divestitures and contractual transitions-may conceal underlying cyclicality or structural changes in the plasma collection market; over the long term, cyclicality and improved customer productivity could limit absolute volume growth, impacting revenue and earnings trajectory.
  
• Failure to drive sustained growth and utilization in Interventional Technologies (especially VASCADE) despite management interventions could result in continued underperformance, weaker diversification, and less margin expansion than anticipated, ultimately constraining profitability and earnings growth.
  
• Limited international footprint and dependence on U.S.-driven growth heighten exposure to potential U.S.-centric risks (regulatory, reimbursement, macroeconomic), while slower-than-expected adoption outside the U.S., delayed regulatory approvals, or local competition could cap total addressable market expansion and long-term revenue growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $78.636 for Haemonetics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $108.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $58.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.5 billion, earnings will come to $257.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
• Given the current share price of $54.24, the analyst price target of $78.64 is 31.0% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.