Last Update 11 Dec 25

BSX: Shares Will Rise On Earnings Strength And Multi Year Execution Momentum

Analysts nudged their average price target for Boston Scientific modestly higher, toward the low to mid $130 range, citing the company’s Q3 beat, accelerating Watchman adoption, confidence in multi year guidance, and a robust growth pipeline supported by strategic acquisitions like Nalu, despite some cautions on valuation and longer term growth moderation.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst reaction to Boston Scientific's latest results and strategic updates has been predominantly positive, with several firms raising price targets and reiterating favorable ratings, while a minority voice has started to flag valuation and medium term growth risks.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight the Q3 earnings beat and accelerating Watchman adoption as evidence that Boston Scientific can continue to outgrow large cap MedTech peers on both sales and EPS.
Several models have been revised higher following updated 2025 guidance and a new three year plan that targets around 10 percent organic growth, which reinforces confidence in multi year execution.
The Nalu acquisition is viewed as another value accretive deal that deepens the company’s presence in peripheral nerve stimulation and strengthens the long term innovation pipeline.
Improved sentiment around electrophysiology performance, with fears of share loss easing after the latest print, supports the view that Boston Scientific can sustain an attractive growth and margin profile.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts argue that the stock screens expensive versus peers, with much of the above peer growth narrative already reflected in current valuation and limiting near term upside.
There is growing concern that sales growth could decelerate in 2026 relative to 2025, which raises questions about how long double digit expansion can be maintained without pressure on the multiple.
Some cautious views focus on the risk that increasingly ambitious long range targets and a more acquisition driven pipeline raise the bar for consistent execution.
Incremental target hikes in the low to mid $130 range are characterized as modest, which suggests a more balanced risk reward skew even among otherwise constructive voices.

What's in the News

Truist raised its Boston Scientific price target to $130 from $129 and reiterated a Buy rating after a solid Q3 beat, highlighting accelerating Watchman growth and confidence in upside to higher guidance (Truist research note).
Boston Scientific issued new guidance for Q4 2025, forecasting reported net sales growth of approximately 14.5% to 16.5%, organic growth of 11% to 13%, and GAAP EPS of $0.48 to $0.52 (Corporate guidance filing).
For full year 2025, the company guided to about 20% reported net sales growth and approximately 15.5% organic growth, with GAAP EPS expected in a range of $1.97 to $2.01 (Corporate guidance filing).
The company reported no share repurchases in the July 1 to September 30, 2025 tranche, leaving the previously authorized buyback program effectively unused in the period (Buyback tranche update).

Valuation Changes

Discount Rate: fallen slightly from 7.89% to 7.88%, implying a marginally lower required return on equity.
Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at about 11.05%, indicating stable long term top line growth assumptions.
Net Profit Margin: effectively unchanged at about 19.34%, reflecting steady expectations for underlying profitability.
Future P/E: edged down slightly from 46.56x to 46.55x, signaling a negligible adjustment to the long term earnings multiple.

Innovation in advanced therapies and strategic acquisitions expand market reach and support margin growth through differentiated, high-value offerings.
Global expansion and efficiency initiatives enhance revenue diversification, improve operational margins, and drive long-term sustainable growth.
Persistent cost pressures, competitive threats, regulatory risks, and integration challenges may limit Boston Scientific's revenue growth, pricing power, and margin resilience moving forward.

Catalysts

About Boston Scientific

Develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices for use in various interventional medical specialties worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerated adoption of advanced therapies like FARAPULSE (pulsed field ablation) and WATCHMAN-backed by expanded clinical indications, strong safety/efficacy data, and increased physician uptake, particularly in major global markets-positions Boston Scientific for continued above-market procedure growth, benefiting revenue and gross margins.
Broadening global access through double-digit growth in emerging markets, especially Asia Pacific (notably in China and Japan), supports long-term international revenue diversification and offsets potential slowdowns in developed regions, driving total top-line expansion.
Ongoing expansion into ambulatory surgery center (ASC) settings-with regulatory changes likely to facilitate increased procedure volumes-should further boost procedure capacity for minimally invasive therapies, supporting higher recurring revenue and improving capacity constraints.
Investment in proprietary, high-margin technologies (e.g., next-gen mapping, advanced diagnostic tools, differentiated urology/neuromodulation pipelines) combined with successful integration of recent acquisitions (Axonics, SoniVie, Intera, Silk Road) expands Boston Scientific's addressable market and is likely to drive margin expansion as product mix improves.
Enhanced scale and operational efficiency through supply chain initiatives, digitalization, and manufacturing automation-alongside robust cash flow-positions Boston Scientific to expand operating margins and generate sustainable earnings growth over the long term.

Boston Scientific Earnings and Revenue Growth

Boston Scientific Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Boston Scientific's revenue will grow by 11.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.5% today to 18.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $4.8 billion (and earnings per share of $3.17) by about September 2028, up from $2.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $3.6 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 49.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 63.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 29.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.54% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.56%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Boston Scientific Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Risks to Boston Scientific's gross margin and net earnings persist due to ongoing cost headwinds from tariffs (with an expected $100 million impact in the second half of 2025) and the discontinuation of the ACURATE valve, which also signals vulnerability to product lifecycle challenges and regulatory pressures.
Heightened competition from low-cost device manufacturers, especially in endoscopy and urology across Asia and Europe, as well as in MedSurg, risks eroding pricing power and market share, which could suppress future revenue expansion and margin resilience.
Heavy reliance on continual product innovation and acquisition integration (e.g., Axonics, SoniVie, Intera Medical, Silk Road) introduces execution and integration risks; a failure to realize anticipated synergies or operational efficiencies may lead to margin compression and dilute overall earnings growth.
Proposed and actual decreases in U.S. reimbursement rates (such as the 16% proposed cut in physician fee for LAA closure and pending evaluations on ASC code changes) introduce regulatory and payer risk, potentially impacting both volume (through slower adoption) and profit margins.
Secular shifts such as increased adoption of procedures in ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), price sensitivity in emerging markets, and accelerating healthcare consolidation may shift bargaining power to providers, thus restricting revenue growth opportunities and putting additional pressure on long-term margins and earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $124.531 for Boston Scientific based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $140.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $99.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $25.4 billion, earnings will come to $4.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 49.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%.
Given the current share price of $108.09, the analyst price target of $124.53 is 13.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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