Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 4.07%

PGNY Emerging IVF Coverage Tailwinds Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Progyny from $28.25 to $29.40 per share, citing emerging positive catalysts, stronger expected utilization on higher eligible lives, and potential incremental tailwinds from expanding IVF awareness and coverage.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts see the recent upgrade and price target moves as validation that Progyny's fundamentals and growth prospects are underappreciated at current levels, with the stock offering an attractive risk reward skew.

While macro uncertainty and employer headcount trends remain in focus, the tone of recent research suggests that execution on utilization and potential policy support for IVF are increasingly seen as tangible upside drivers for valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight "several positive catalysts emerging" over the next 12 months, supporting the view that the shares have limited downside from here relative to upside potential toward the low to mid $30s.
Estimates have been revised higher to reflect better utilization on a growing base of eligible lives, reinforcing confidence that Progyny can sustain above market growth and expand its revenue base faster than previously modeled.
Potential policy action to further expand IVF access is viewed as an incremental positive, as heightened awareness and demand for coverage could accelerate new employer wins and drive higher case volumes on existing contracts.
With a leading competitive position and broad geographic coverage, Progyny is seen as particularly well positioned to capture any incremental benefit to IVF coverage and utilization, which could support multiple expansion if execution remains strong.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to the macro setup into 2026, where layoffs and headcount reductions could pressure the total number of covered lives, potentially tempering utilization growth and near term revenue visibility.
There is caution that the impact of any IVF focused policy initiative may be more nuanced than headlines suggest, with timing, scope and actual employer adoption introducing execution risk to upside scenarios baked into some models.
Some investors remain concerned that expectations for sustained high utilization on a larger eligible base may prove optimistic if economic conditions soften, creating downside risk to out year estimates and limiting near term multiple expansion.
Given recent outperformance relative to earlier concerns, a portion of the good news from positive catalysts and policy momentum may already be reflected in the stock, leaving less room for valuation upside if growth trends moderate.

What's in the News

The White House is expected to propose a voluntary employer benefit option to expand IVF and infertility coverage, lifting Progyny shares intraday as investors anticipate increased demand for fertility benefits (New York Times).
Progyny raised its full-year 2025 guidance and is now targeting revenue of $1.263 billion to $1.278 billion, or underlying growth of 17.8% to 19.2% excluding a transitioning large client, with net income projected at $58.5 million to $61.5 million.
The company issued its fourth-quarter 2025 outlook, guiding revenue to $292.7 million to $307.7 million and net income to $12.5 million to $15.5 million, which implies double-digit underlying growth once transition revenue is excluded.
The Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $200 million, signaling confidence in the company’s long-term prospects and providing incremental support for the stock.

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly from $28.25 to $29.40 per share, reflecting modestly stronger long-term assumptions.
The discount rate has increased marginally from 6.78 percent to 6.96 percent, implying a slightly higher required return and modestly dampening the valuation.
Revenue growth has edged up from 8.87 percent to 9.11 percent, incorporating expectations for somewhat stronger top-line expansion.
The net profit margin has improved from 7.04 percent to 7.58 percent, signaling a modestly more optimistic view on future profitability.
The future P/E has declined slightly from 26.8x to 25.4x, suggesting a modest compression in the multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expanding employer focus on women's health and demographic shifts drive robust, recurring demand and client growth for Progyny's fertility benefits and services.
Integrated health platform investments and successful upselling boost revenue diversity, client retention, and margin growth while reducing risk from industry concentration.
Cost pressures, competition, client concentration, higher investments, and regulatory risks could constrain revenue growth, margins, and profitability across Progyny's core and emerging business lines.

Catalysts

About Progyny

A benefits management company, provides fertility, family building, and women’s health benefits solutions in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Sustained high levels of employer interest in women's health and family-building benefits-supported by a recent national study and 81% of HR leaders prioritizing these services-point toward robust long-term demand, especially as employers seek to attract and retain talent. This broadening acceptance and adoption are likely to expand revenue and topline growth over time.
The continued shift in demographics-specifically delayed family formation and rising maternal age-supports an expanding addressable market for fertility benefits. This trend should drive increased client acquisition and member utilization, fueling growth in covered lives and recurring revenue.
Investment in an integrated women's health platform (including new services such as pelvic floor therapy, leave navigation, and enhanced digital engagement) positions Progyny to cross-sell adjacent products, resulting in higher share of wallet with current clients and additional revenue streams, supporting both topline and margin expansion.
Positive momentum in client retention and upselling, with renewals featuring either sustained or expanded benefits even in a cautious macro environment, enhances revenue predictability and underpins steady earnings growth.
Strong inflows in new client pipeline-including a diverse client base across industries and increasing early launches-demonstrate resilience and lower exposure to sector-specific downturns, supporting stable earnings and reducing risk to future revenue streams.

Progyny Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Progyny's revenue will grow by 8.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.3% today to 7.0% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $112.9 million (and earnings per share of $1.28) by about September 2028, up from $53.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $133.2 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $78.8 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 37.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Healthcare industry at 21.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.97% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Progyny Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Broad-based cost containment efforts and benefit prioritization by employers, especially in uncertain macroeconomic environments, may limit the uptake or expansion of premium fertility, maternity, and women's health benefits, which could constrain growth in revenue and client acquisition.
Increased competition from both direct fertility benefit startups and large health insurers offering integrated fertility solutions may erode Progyny's differentiated value proposition, compressing margins and slowing member growth, ultimately pressuring revenue and EBITDA expansion.
Overreliance on high-utilization industries (e.g., technology, healthcare, media) for higher expected revenue per client, alongside cyclical employment or demographic shifts within these industries, could expose Progyny to material demand risk, impacting predictability and stability of future revenues.
Ongoing investments in new product development, integration of recent acquisitions, and expansion of services may drive up operating and capital expenditures ahead of corresponding revenue realization, leading to potential pressure on net income and adjusted EBITDA margins in coming years.
Heightened political, regulatory, and legislative scrutiny or potential restrictions on reproductive health, ART procedures, or employer-sponsored fertility benefits could limit the future addressable market and add compliance costs, negatively impacting both revenue growth and long-term profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $28.25 for Progyny based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $32.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $23.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.6 billion, earnings will come to $112.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $22.97, the analyst price target of $28.25 is 18.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Progyny?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Rising Demand For Women's Health Will Transform Market Opportunity