Last Update 09 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.29%

RRC: LNG-Driven Gas Demand Is Expected To Support Higher Future Pricing

Analysts have nudged their blended fair value estimate for Range Resources slightly higher to around $41.91 from approximately $41.79, reflecting incremental improvements in long term margin expectations and valuation multiples, even as near term gas macro headwinds and modestly softer growth assumptions temper upside.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Range Resources reflects a balanced mix of optimism about the company’s long term positioning in U.S. natural gas and caution around nearer term commodity and cash flow dynamics. Target price revisions have clustered in the high 30 dollar to mid 40 dollar range, broadly consistent with the updated blended fair value estimate, as analysts recalibrate models following Q3 updates and evolving gas macro assumptions.

Across the coverage universe, views coalesce around Range’s operational execution, capital discipline, and exposure to potential structural tailwinds in gas demand, while differing mainly on how quickly these positives will translate into higher free cash flow and sustained multiple expansion.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see Range as a prime beneficiary of a potential structural uplift in U.S. gas pricing over the next decade, driven by LNG export growth and accelerating power demand from data centers. This is seen as supporting higher long term price floors and reduced earnings volatility.
Production is viewed as being on a credible path toward the 2.6 Bcfe per day 2027 target. This reinforces confidence in the company’s ability to deliver steady volume growth that underpins cash flow and supports the current valuation framework.
Some bullish analysts highlight the upside from capital allocation flexibility, including stock buybacks and growth optionality. These are viewed as potential drivers of additional shareholder value if management leans into favorable market conditions.
Incremental improvements in cost efficiencies and operational execution, alongside generally clean Q3 operational updates, are seen as supportive of margin expansion. This is cited as justification for maintaining or modestly increasing target prices despite near term macro noise.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts argue that the recent rally in gas equities has extended beyond fundamentals, limiting near term upside as valuation multiples already discount a more constructive gas tape than currently realized.
There is concern that weaker near term gas and NGL realizations will keep cash flow below consensus. This could constrain the pace of deleveraging, buybacks, or incremental growth investments that would otherwise support a higher fair value.
Some cautious views emphasize that while the gas outlook is robust on a multi year basis, visibility around timing remains uncertain. This leaves Range exposed to prolonged price softness that could delay the realization of its growth and margin targets.
Target price cuts in the high 30 dollar to low 40 dollar range reflect a belief among bearish analysts that current valuations already capture much of the anticipated structural demand uplift. As a result, they see less room for re rating without a clearer inflection in macro conditions.

What's in the News

Wells Fargo assumed coverage on Range Resources with an Overweight rating and a $46 price target, citing expectations for a structurally higher U.S. gas price floor supported by LNG exports and rising datacenter power demand (Periodicals).
Range reported third quarter 2025 production of 204.96 million mcfe per day, up slightly year over year as higher natural gas volumes offset modest declines in NGLs and oil (Key Developments).
The company repurchased 1.58 million shares, or 0.66 percent of shares outstanding, in the third quarter of 2025, bringing total buybacks under its 2019 authorization to 31.63 million shares, or 12.85 percent (Key Developments).
Range modestly increased its 2025 production guidance to approximately 2.23 Bcfe per day, slightly above its prior outlook of about 2.225 Bcfe per day (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $41.91 from about $41.79, reflecting a modest upward revision in the long term outlook.
The Discount Rate has increased marginally to roughly 6.96 percent from about 6.90 percent, indicating a slightly higher required return in the valuation framework.
Revenue Growth has eased slightly to around 11.86 percent from about 12.07 percent, incorporating somewhat softer forward growth assumptions.
The Net Profit Margin has improved modestly to roughly 20.50 percent from about 20.43 percent, suggesting a small enhancement in long term margin expectations.
The Future P/E has edged higher to approximately 13.84x from about 13.75x, implying a slightly richer multiple applied to projected earnings.

Rising demand from AI data centers and expanded LNG export capacity are set to boost Range's pricing power and earnings potential.
Operational efficiencies, strong capital discipline, and leadership in low-emission gas are driving improved margins, free cash flow, and enhanced shareholder returns.
Regulatory, market, and environmental pressures threaten Range Resources' growth, profitability, access to capital, and long-term sustainability amid shifting industry and investor dynamics.

Catalysts

About Range Resources

Operates as an independent natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil company in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapidly expanding demand for natural gas from large-scale AI data centers and power infrastructure projects in Pennsylvania is expected to provide a durable new source of regional consumption for Range, which leverages its long-life Marcellus inventory and operational reliability-supporting sustained revenue growth and protecting net margins as regional pricing improves.
Increasing U.S. LNG export capacity coming online over the next 18 months will open additional premium international markets for Range's gas and NGLs; with Range's unique East Coast export infrastructure and supply flexibility, this can drive higher realized prices and support upward revisions to earnings and free cash flow.
Ongoing efficiency gains in drilling and completions and sustained reductions in per-unit well costs are enabling Range to increase production guidance and lower capital spending, directly expanding margins and delivering stronger free cash flow even in a flatter commodity environment.
Continued capital discipline, rapid deleveraging, and aggressive share repurchases (over $120 million YTD) are reducing share count and interest expense, compounding per-share earnings growth and enhancing the pace and scale of shareholder returns.
Range's leadership in certified low-methane gas and commitment to net-zero operational emissions provide a competitive edge as customer procurement preferences and regulatory frameworks increasingly favor low-emission producers, improving market access and supporting resilient revenues over the long term.

Range Resources Earnings and Revenue Growth

Range Resources Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Range Resources's revenue will grow by 13.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 17.1% today to 19.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $804.1 million (and earnings per share of $3.55) by about September 2028, up from $478.7 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $1.3 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 17.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.28% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.07%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Range Resources Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Increasing regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around federal and state permit reform for pipelines and infrastructure in Appalachia could cause project delays, limit in-basin and export market access, and compress realized sales prices, directly impacting Range Resources' future revenue growth and net margins.
Range's heavy regional concentration in Appalachia exposes the company to risks of local oversupply-if multiple producers ramp up production for new data center and power demand but demand materializes more slowly than expected, regional price differentials could widen and erode net earnings and free cash flow despite operational efficiencies.
Accelerating global and U.S. decarbonization efforts, ongoing adoption of renewables, and potential for stricter climate policies over the next decade could trigger a structural decline in fossil fuel demand, challenging Range's long-term ability to sustain or grow revenues and pressuring its valuation.
The company's aggressive multi-year growth outlook depends on continued capital-intensive drilling and completion activity; if commodity prices underperform or well costs rise (due to labor, services, or supply chain inflation), Range's free cash flow and ability to execute share buybacks and dividends could deteriorate.
Shifting investor sentiment and capital allocation trends toward ESG-friendly sectors may drive higher borrowing costs and restrict access to low-cost capital for Range Resources, limiting its financial flexibility and potentially constraining future investment in growth projects or shareholder returns.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $42.625 for Range Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $50.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $28.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.1 billion, earnings will come to $804.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.1%.
Given the current share price of $34.3, the analyst price target of $42.62 is 19.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

RRC: Medium-Term Demand From LNG Exports And Datacenters Will Drive Upside