Digital Platforms And Replacement Cycles Will Expand Auction Markets

Key Takeaways

• Digitization, global expansion, and cross-border integrations are set to dramatically boost transaction volume, market share, and recurring margin expansion beyond current expectations.
  
• Regulatory-driven equipment turnover, flexible scaling, and entry into high-growth markets position RB Global for outsized, sustainable profit growth.
  
• Shifts in technology, marketplace dynamics, and industry ownership models threaten RB Global's traditional business model, compressing margins and putting long-term revenue growth at risk.

Catalysts

Operates a marketplace that provides insights, services, and transaction solutions for buyers and sellers of commercial assets and vehicles worldwide.

• Analyst consensus sees technology upgrades and marketplace digitization leading to scalable growth, but this may underestimate the potential for exponential increases in global transaction volume, as continued international expansion and alliances could drive buyer growth well beyond current projections, accelerating both top-line revenue and market share gains.
  
• While analysts broadly agree that acquisitions like Boom & Bucket will deepen liquidity and expand the buyer base, this view may understate the significant network effects and cross-border fee revenue potential as RB Global integrates UK, Australian, and US operations, driving sustainable expansion in net margins and gross margins through improved platform economics.
  
• The rapid acceleration of equipment replacement due to environmental and regulatory shifts will lead to a structural increase in asset turnover, setting a new, higher baseline for auction volumes, which can drive double-digit growth in commission and service fee income over the coming years.
  
• The company's proven ability to rapidly scale during catastrophic events and mega-projects means it is uniquely positioned to capitalize on unexpected volume surges; as infrastructure investment ramps up globally, RB Global's flexible model could lead to outsized earnings surprises not yet reflected in analyst models.
  
• Upcoming launches in new international markets, like Australia, in combination with high-performing M&A integrations such as J.M. Wood, will allow RB Global to tap into previously inaccessible customer bases and high-growth geographies, dramatically boosting recurring service revenue and delivering superior long-term EBITDA growth.

RB Global Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on RB Global compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming RB Global's revenue will grow by 2.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.5% today to 14.3% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $685.0 million (and earnings per share of $3.71) by about August 2028, up from $377.3 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 45.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 54.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the CA Commercial Services industry at 29.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.73% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.22%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

RB Global Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The accelerating shift to electrification and automation in transportation and construction may reduce long-term demand for traditional heavy equipment and vehicles, which represent a core segment of RB Global's auction volumes, thereby suppressing future revenues.
  
• The growing adoption of purely digital auction platforms and peer-to-peer marketplaces threatens to erode the value proposition of RB Global's hybrid/physical auction model, increasing competition and potentially causing margin compression and lower net earnings.
  
• Consolidation among large equipment manufacturers and fleet owners could lead to fewer, larger, and more powerful sellers, granting them greater bargaining power over RB Global's commission rates and resulting in downward pressure on profitability and revenue streams.
  
• Execution risks around integrating large acquisitions like IAA and ongoing digital transformation initiatives may result in increased operational inefficiency, higher technology expenses, and dilution of synergies, which would negatively impact net margins and earnings.
  
• A secular trend toward rental and leasing, as opposed to ownership, is expected to lower the overall volume of used equipment available for auction, directly reducing RB Global's auction supply and limiting service fee income and long-term revenue growth.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for RB Global is $135.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of RB Global's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $135.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $60.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.8 billion, earnings will come to $685.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 45.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
  
• Given the current share price of $111.01, the bullish analyst price target of $135.0 is 17.8% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.