Key Takeaways
- Rising adoption of advanced driver assistance and autonomous tech in vehicles, plus industry partnerships, support higher-margin, recurring revenue and growing market share for Mobileye.
- Scalable platforms, strong product wins, and differentiated mapping ecosystem position Mobileye for sustainable growth, margin expansion, and industry leadership as auto tech adoption accelerates.
- Rising regulatory barriers, competitive in-house technology development, and concentrated customer risk threaten Mobileye's revenue growth, profitability, and timely advancement of next-generation autonomous products.
Catalysts
About Mobileye Global- Develops and deploys advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions worldwide.
- The growing inclusion of multi-camera ADAS setups and highway hands-free driving features in mass-market vehicles, which is being accelerated by tightening global safety regulations, positions Mobileye to capture dramatically higher value per unit. This expanding content per car will directly drive topline revenue growth and improve gross margins as the company shifts to higher-value, more complex systems.
- Mobileye’s expanding partnerships with industry leaders like Volkswagen, Uber, and Lyft in scaling robotaxi and autonomous fleet deployments will unlock high-margin, recurring software and data licensing revenue streams. As services revenue grows relative to hardware, this will structurally enhance the company's net margins and provide greater earnings stability.
- The rapid progress and early, large-scale design wins for Mobileye’s next-generation products, including SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Imaging Radar, indicate rising attach rates and deeper penetration with global OEMs. Continued platform wins and pipeline momentum suggest outsized future shipment volumes, which will support accelerated revenue growth and operating leverage as fixed R&D infrastructure is scaled across more programs.
- The commercial ramp of Mobileye’s cloud-based REM mapping platform for both ADAS and autonomous driving will create a scalable ecosystem where large fleets of vehicles continuously contribute and consume high-value mapping data. This network effect positions Mobileye to generate high-margin, recurring revenues and differentiates its offering, supporting sustainable long-term margin expansion.
- Intensifying OEM competition and consumer expectations for both safety and convenience in urban mobility are creating a race to integrate advanced ADAS and autonomous solutions across all price points and geographies. Mobileye’s proven technology, cost-effective and scalable platform, and ability to win new programs with both traditional and emerging auto manufacturers put it in a prime position to drive sustained revenue and earnings outperformance as the broader industry modernizes.
Mobileye Global Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Mobileye Global compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
- The bullish analysts are assuming Mobileye Global's revenue will grow by 23.7% annually over the next 3 years.
- The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -160.5% today to 3.6% in 3 years time.
- The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $127.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about July 2028, up from $-3.0 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 247.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Auto Components industry at 14.9x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.12% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Mobileye Global Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Slower global economic growth, increased adoption of alternative transportation, and heightened trade frictions could reduce underlying auto production volumes and consumer demand for new vehicles, negatively impacting Mobileye’s addressable market, which would in turn lower revenue growth and profitability.
- Escalating regulatory risks, such as new or intensified tariffs, technology export controls, and potential restrictions on Israeli-origin technology, may limit Mobileye’s ability to access key international markets, especially China, constraining the company’s international growth ambitions and putting downward pressure on top-line revenue.
- Mobileye faces mounting competition from automakers and Tier 1 suppliers that are increasingly developing their own in-house autonomous driving and ADAS technology, which may result in pricing pressure, loss of market share, and margin compression, directly threatening long-term earnings and net margin expansion.
- The company’s reliance on a small group of large auto OEM partners introduces concentration risk; any loss or reduction in orders from a major customer—possibly precipitated by regulatory disruptions, production shifts, or competitive displacement—could have an outsized negative impact on annual revenue and earnings stability.
- Delays in consumer adoption of advanced autonomy features due to safety, liability, or regulatory factors—as well as potential technical setbacks in Mobileye’s advanced products like SuperVision, Chauffeur, or Drive—could prolong R&D expenditures and prevent timely realization of expected high-margin revenues from next-generation autonomous offerings.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The assumed bullish price target for Mobileye Global is $29.91, which represents two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $19.97. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Mobileye Global's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
- However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $12.0.
- In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.5 billion, earnings will come to $127.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 247.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.2%.
- Given the current share price of $16.19, the bullish analyst price target of $29.91 is 45.9% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystHighTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystHighTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystHighTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.