exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.

6.3k

Celsius Holdings

JD009

Community Contributor

From $5M to $2B: Why the 2024 Crash Was the Best Buying Opportunity in Consumer Stocks

A 17-Year Story That Most Investors Only Discovered in the Last Three In 2010, Celsius Holdings (CELH) was generating roughly US$5 million in annual revenue, a forgotten energy drink with niche distribution in Scandinavian gyms and a handful of US health food stores. By the end of 2025, the company had crossed US$2 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and acquired two major energy drink brands.

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US$55.43

46.9% undervalued

20.00%

Revenue growth p.a.

2.6k

Accenture

Wavefarer

Community Contributor

High-quality global services company facing an AI-driven valuation reset.

Accenture is still a go-to partner for big companies, but investors worry that new AI tools could shrink the need for the people-heavy work it has long sold. The upside comes down to whether it can turn its AI platforms and major tech partnerships into real customer wins faster than spending and staffing pressures bite.

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US$301

51.9% undervalued

See 13 DCF Valuation

2.3k

Tanzania Breweries

Tanzania Breweries will thrive with 23.62% revenue growth

Tanzania Breweries looks like a dominant name in local beer and spirits, but the share price seems to assume far more than the business can realistically deliver. See what could keep growth going—and why the stock may still be priced too high.Read more

TSh7k

40.4% overvalued

DkQ's

Fair Value

Revenue

23.62% p.a.

Profit Margin

15%

Future PE

11x

Price in 2031

TSh19.85k

CRDB Bank

Is the Market Underestimating CRDB?

Many people treat CRDB like a simple dividend bank, but its biggest story may be how it’s building a bigger role in Tanzania’s fast-forming financial system. If its deposit growth, digital payments push, and Congo expansion work out, the company could look very different over the next decade—though competition and economic shocks could still derail that path.Read more

TSh2.8k

4.3% undervalued

jay_iwv80's

Fair Value

Revenue

26.91% p.a.

Profit Margin

39.05%

Future PE

8.77x

Price in 2031

TSh8.62k

CRDB Bank

Critical analysis of CRDB Bank Tanzania (DSE: CRDB).CRDB Bank Tanzania — Critical Investment Analysis

CRDB Bank’s profits and customer base keep growing, but the share price has already surged and now bakes in much of that good news. See what could still drive long-term gains—and the big risks that could spoil them, from currency swings to tougher competition and regulation.Read more

TSh2.59k

3.5% overvalued

alexbarongo's

Fair Value

Revenue

22.54% p.a.

Profit Margin

39.56%

Future PE

10.6x

Price in 2031

TSh8.02k

CRDB Bank

CRDB Bank's Earnings expected to grow 24.55% C.A.G.R to 2030

CRDB's Net Operating Income is projected to grow 21.96% YoY between 2026 - 2030, driven by strong credit appetite from Tanzania and Burundi, and exponential revenue growth from newly issued subsidiaries CRDB Insurance and CRDB Congo, as well as robust non-funded income growth from its digital platforms as usage continues to surge, and diversification towards other financial services solidifies. A positive jaws between gross income and operating expense growth expected to hold during the projected period as subsidiaries become more profitable and staff productivity continues to surge resulting in a projected earnings growth of 24.55% C.A.G.R between 2026 - 2030.Read more

TSh1.17k

128.6% overvalued

Kaizer_Tz's

Fair Value

Revenue

25% p.a.

Profit Margin

42%

Future PE

4.76x

Price in 2030

TSh3.87k

NMB Bank

NMB Trading at a Discount to Intrinsic Value Based on Earnings and Book Value Metrics

NMB Bank Plc is currently trading at valuation levels that appear undemanding relative to its fundamentals. The stock is priced at a trailing P/E multiple of approximately 6.7×, which is below what would typically be expected for a well-capitalized, profitable, and systemically important banking institution.Read more

TSh12.5k

34.0% overvalued

Coze's

Fair Value

Revenue

33.18% p.a.

Profit Margin

42.23%

Future PE

6.77x

Price in 2031

TSh40.52k

CRDB Bank

A 30% ROE Bank Trading at 6x Earnings

CRDB Bank is growing profits fast while keeping costs under control, and it still rewards shareholders with regular payouts. The big question is whether rising problem loans and higher loan losses stay manageable as the bank keeps expanding and relying on fee income.Read more