Tanzanian Investing Ideas

Global Weekly Picks

US$65
FV
12.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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TSh7k
40.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
23.62% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
11x
Price in 2031
TSh19.85k
TSh2.8k
4.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
26.91% p.a.
Profit Margin
39.05%
Future PE
8.77x
Price in 2031
TSh8.62k
TSh2.59k
3.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
22.54% p.a.
Profit Margin
39.56%
Future PE
10.6x
Price in 2031
TSh8.02k
TSh12.5k
34.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
33.18% p.a.
Profit Margin
42.23%
Future PE
6.77x
Price in 2031
TSh40.52k
TSh2.33k
15.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
N/A
Profit Margin
37.51%
Future PE
N/A
Price in 2030
TSh0