Tailored SKUs And Automation Will Expand Global Footprint

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AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
Published
22 Feb 25
Updated
08 Aug 25
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
₺197.15
40.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
08 Aug
₺117.50
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1Y
-30.8%
7D
6.0%

Author's Valuation

₺197.2

40.4% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Last Update04 Aug 25
Fair value Decreased 10%

The consensus price target for Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi has been cut notably, primarily reflecting sharply reduced revenue growth forecasts, with fair value downgraded from TRY219.18 to TRY197.15.


Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from TRY219.18 to TRY197.15.
  • The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi has significantly fallen from 38.6% per annum to 23.9% per annum.
  • The Future P/E for Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi has significantly fallen from 9.76x to 8.66x.

Key Takeaways

  • Product innovation, targeted marketing, and digital transformation are set to enhance brand strength, efficiency, and profitability while supporting premiumization.
  • International expansion and ESG leadership diversify revenues, reduce risk, and attract loyalty, enabling sustainable long-term value growth.
  • Rising raw material costs, export weakness, and heavy domestic reliance threaten margins and growth, while shifting consumer trends and competition demand greater innovation and investment.

Catalysts

About Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi
    Manufactures, markets, and sells biscuits, chocolates, chocolate coated biscuits, wafers, and cakes in Turkey and internationally.
What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
  • The company's strong focus on product innovation-especially launching new SKUs tailored to health-conscious and regional preferences-positions it well to capture rising demand for packaged/convenient foods among urbanizing, younger populations in Turkey and MENA, supporting future revenue growth and market share gains.
  • Ülker's continued investment in automation, digital transformation, and operational excellence is expected to drive improved cost control and efficiency over time, enhancing net margins and supporting sustainable long-term earnings.
  • A robust and rising international footprint-backed by successful localization strategies and growing export momentum in MENA and North Africa-reduces domestic market dependence and provides diversified revenue streams, lowering earnings volatility and risk.
  • The company's best-in-class marketing approach and demonstrated brand strength (e.g., major Effie awards, strong digital presence) are likely to accelerate premiumization and pricing power, which boosts average selling prices and supports higher profitability.
  • ESG leadership, demonstrated by top industry sustainability scores and ongoing environmental/agricultural initiatives, is set to attract investor and consumer loyalty, potentially mitigating regulatory/reputational risks and underpinning long-term value and cash flow growth.

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi Earnings and Revenue Growth

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?
  • Analysts are assuming Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi's revenue will grow by 23.9% annually over the next 3 years.
  • Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.1% today to 11.1% in 3 years time.
  • Analysts expect earnings to reach TRY 17.8 billion (and earnings per share of TRY 35.87) by about August 2028, up from TRY 6.8 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
  • In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 6.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the TR Food industry at 19.2x.
  • Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
  • To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 29.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?
  • Sharp and sustained volatility in key raw material prices-particularly cocoa, which nearly tripled year-on-year-poses a significant risk to cost of goods sold; if these high input costs persist and cannot be fully passed on to consumers, it will compress gross margins and pressure net earnings.
  • Heavy reliance on Turkey (74% of revenue) exposes the company to domestic inflation, FX volatility, and local macroeconomic risk, all of which can lead to unpredictable swings in reported revenue and net profits, especially if inflation and FX remain uncorrelated.
  • Softness and declines in international revenues (down 17% year-on-year) reveal ongoing challenges in export markets due to currency devaluations, trade headwinds, and regional demand fluctuations, undermining diversification benefits and limiting topline and EBITDA growth prospects if sustained.
  • Inventory build-up driven by raw material price spikes and delayed shipments may lead to inefficient working capital usage and increased financial risk; if input cost volatility continues, it could heighten leverage (net debt/EBITDA) and restrict future shareholder returns via dividends or capex.
  • Intensifying competition and changing consumer health trends (not fully addressed in the call) could erode demand for traditional biscuits and chocolates, forcing Ülker to increase innovation and marketing spend to defend market share, pressuring EBITDA margins and slowing net income growth if preferences shift rapidly.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?
  • The analysts have a consensus price target of TRY197.15 for Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of TRY265.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just TRY161.0.
  • In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be TRY159.8 billion, earnings will come to TRY17.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 29.5%.
  • Given the current share price of TRY116.0, the analyst price target of TRY197.15 is 41.2% higher.
  • We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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